Yoon Suk-yeol, who has been following the United States and China in an all-round way since coming to power, lost the gamble completely this time. In South Korea's 22nd parliamentary election, Yoon Suk-yeol's party was almost wiped out.
According to the latest statistics, South Korea's opposition opposition camp won an absolute majority of seats, which can be described as a resounding victory. The largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, won 175 of the 300 seats, while the ruling People's Power Party won only 108 seats. At the beginning of 2023, shortly after Yoon Suk-yeol came to power, his party, the People's Power Party, had 114 seats, while the opposition Democratic Party of Korea had only 156 seats, and a year later, the People's Power Party had dropped by six seats, while the Democratic Party's seats had risen by 19.
The election is often seen as a hidden referendum on incumbent President Yoon Suk-yeol and an opportunity to gauge the level of support for Yoon among South Korean citizens. Such a result fully shows that Yoon Suk-yeol's policy of comprehensively leaning toward the United States, unprincipled reconciliation with Japan, and following the United States and China since he took office as South Korean president has become unpopular in South Korea, and the South Korean people have begun to doubt Yoon Suk-yeol's ability to govern.
(South Korea's parliamentary election is being counted tightly)
After the election results, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea, delivered a speech in which he expressed his gratitude to the South Korean people for supporting the party, saying that the new National Assembly and the Democratic Party of Korea will focus on resolving the crisis of people's livelihood as the country faces many difficulties in people's livelihood. At the same time, he also advocated reconciliation between South Korea and the DPRK, opposed choosing sides between China and the United States, and opposed South Korea's involvement in Taiwan Strait affairs. His main governing philosophy is almost the opposite of Yoon's.
South Korean Prime Minister Han Deok-so verbally expressed his resignation to President Yoon Suk-yeol on the same day, and at the same time, all the staff members above the level of first secretary in the South Korean presidential office except for the National Security Office expressed their resignation, including Lee Kwan-sup, director of the presidential secretary's office, Sung Tae-yin, director of the policy office, Lee Do-yun, first secretary of the communiqué, and Han Wu-sub, chief secretary of political affairs.
Han Dong-hoon, chairman of the Emergency Countermeasures Committee of the People's Power Party, also announced his resignation afterwards. Han Dong-hoon, who served as the interim leader of the People's Power Party in December last year and commanded the election campaign, had no choice but to resign to take responsibility for such a fiasco.
(Yoon Suk-yeol's party was defeated in parliamentary elections)
Next, Yoon Suk-yeol not only faced the dilemma of "Chao Xiaoye" and became an out-and-out "lame duck president", but also faced the possibility of impeachment. Since taking office, Yoon's domestic policies have often met with strong opposition from the parliament, which in 2023 was largely controlled by opposition parties holding about 60% of the seats, and as of January 2024, only 29.2 percent of the bills submitted by the Yoon Suk-yeol faction to the parliament have passed, significantly lower than the previous administration's 61.4 percent approval rate.
The outcome of this parliamentary election will exacerbate this trend, and it will be even more difficult for Yoon Suk-yeol to pursue any more policies.
(The ratio of party seats in the South Korean parliament in 2023, red is Yoon Suk-yeol's People Power Party)
(After the election of the South Korean parliament, the red one is Yoon Suk-yeol's People Power Party)
It is worth noting that the previous parliament did not play much role in stopping Yoon's foreign policy. The main reason is that the largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, did not control the three-fifths majority (180 seats) and absolute majority (200 seats) of parliamentary seats in the last parliament, two key thresholds for voting on bills of different weights in the South Korean parliament.
Although the DPJ does not reach these two key seats in the new parliament, it is close to a three-fifths majority (this time with 175 seats, just five seats short of a three-fifths majority) and could achieve a three-fifths majority if it unites several other opposition parties. During his campaign, Yoon pledged to strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance, take a tough stance on North Korea and align strategically with the United States, and push to improve tensions with Japan despite the risk of a domestic political backlash
。 Now, the new parliament will likely revise South Korea's foreign policy, or at least push the government to adopt a more balanced policy. The election result also shows that the fundamental situation of the South Korean people is that they cannot choose sides between China and the United States, but must take a balanced diplomacy according to their own national interests.
(Lee Jae-myung, leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea, delivers a speech thanking the Korean people for their support)
Since taking office, Yoon Suk-yeol has advocated reducing dependence on the Chinese market in the economic aspect, cooperating with the US policy of "decoupling" from China, and calling on South Korean companies to shift their supply chains away from China; politically, he has turned to the West in an all-round way, echoing the West's attacks on China on almost every occasion, and cooperating with the US embargo on China in the field of semiconductors; increasing the deployment of THAAD missiles in the military aspect, and even beginning to cooperate with the United States and Japan in an attempt to get involved in the Taiwan issue.
In addition to the "Korean Wave" entertainment industry, the rise of Chinese industry in mobile phones, home appliances, semiconductors, display panels and automobiles has also directly hit South Korean industry, causing South Korea's exports to China to plummet, and South Korea's economy is facing unprecedented difficulties.
Also because of the opposition between the United States and China, Yoon Suk-yeol further pursued a completely hardline policy toward the DPRK, which was again strongly counterattacked by the DPRK government, and the DPRK has abolished the Fatherland Reunification Committee and listed the ROK as an enemy country. South Korea has even followed the United States in providing weapons and ammunition assistance to Ukraine and has imposed sanctions against Russia. All of this makes the future of South Korea unpredictable.
The outcome of South Korea's parliamentary election could be a harbinger of the outcome of South Korea's next general election in two years' time. The countdown to the days when the political forces represented by Yoon Suk-yeol will come to power has begun.