"AI mobile phone" first, is the operating system ready?

作者 | 刘芬 编辑 | 蒋诗舟

Whether it is a mobile phone or a new AI terminal, the operating system is the soul that runs through it.

When mobile phones are expected to become the core entrance of the Internet of Everything, a preparatory competition on AI ecological competition has been launched among mobile phone manufacturers. Each company is stepping up efforts to redefine smart devices, and the competition point is not only to install large models into mobile phones, but also to connect operating systems, terminal categories, and interactions.

Under the "AI mobile phone", it is a new OS revolution. Judging from the timeline, 2023 is a turning point for self-developed mobile phone OS and large models. Following Huawei's release of HarmonyOS, mainstream mobile phone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, vivo, and Honor have successively launched self-developed operating systems. 2024, known as the "first year of AI mobile phones", has only entered April, and it has become a trend to seize AI mobile phones, combine operating systems and AI, and build AI system capabilities.

Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, said, "The operating system is worth redoing with AI. The vice president of vivo emphasized that "in the future, after the combination of artificial intelligence + mobile phones, there will be a new intelligent body AI mobile phone, and the Blue River operating system is an operating system made for future AI mobile phones." Shen Ziyu, chairman and CEO of Meizu Xingji, said bluntly, "Traditional smartphones are no fun, and the next generation of AI terminals will explode next year." ”

In the era of AI mobile phones, what kind of operating system do people need? What are the new progress and differences in the current innovation of mobile phone manufacturers, and who can seize the opportunity under the new business model and service model?

1. "The first year of AI mobile phones", how to roll the operating system?

In March and April, Xiaomi, Honor, vivo, OnePlus, Nubia and other brands rushed to release new AI mobile phone products, and an AI popularization storm appeared in the price range. From high-end to mid-range, from thousand-yuan machines to hundred-yuan machines, the "sinking" speed of AI mobile phones is faster than the outside world expected.

At present, there is no unified definition of AI mobile phones, and the vast majority of products that play the selling point of "AI mobile phones" are mainly connected to large models, equipped with vertical models, and simple upgrades in the direction of AI photography, AI real-time call translation, and AI classification search.

According to the analysis of a number of research reports, the current stage is only the transition stage of AI mobile phone technology, and in the future, interactive AI will arrange various software and cooperate with each terminal to complete it according to the different task needs of users, so as to replace the concept of App. The way of human-computer interaction will definitely evolve in a more natural, efficient and intelligent direction, and the AI capabilities of smartphones will be upgraded from intelligent voice assistants to personal intelligent assistants, and the operating system will also need to be synchronized with it.

Under the premise that the Android system version still lacks AI support, the arrival of the change behind the large model has already ignited the ambition of "de-Androidization" in the mobile phone circle. Wang Chenglu, known as the "father of HarmonyOS", once said: "The birth of HarmonyOS is not to replace Android, but to surpass Android and create a next-generation operating system in the era of the Internet of Everything." ”

"Caijing" new media noticed that out of multiple considerations such as fear of stuck necks and layout ecology, many mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have accelerated their dependence on the underlying architecture of Android. In August 2023, Huawei launched the developer preview version of HarmonyOS NEXT, indicating that it has been developed in-house from the bottom of the system. In October, Xiaomi released its self-developed mobile operating system "Xiaomi Surging OS" (HyperOS), in November, vivo released its self-developed Blue River operating system "BlueOS", OPPO announced the latest achievements of its self-developed Pantanal smart cross-terminal system, and in January 2024, Honor released its self-developed operating system "MagicOS 8.0".

In order to create a more differentiated operating system, vivo and Honor have explored a new way of "intent recognition" human-computer interaction, and the combination of AI and mobile phone operating systems has become another trend. It can be seen from the comparison that AI has gradually risen from product differentiation to the overall strategy of the company, but manufacturers have differentiated thinking in terms of combination methods "according to local conditions". Judging from the new strategies of manufacturers such as Honor, ZTE, and Meizu in 2024, they are more inclined to platform-level AI, and use AI to reconstruct the operating system, which can be empowered across operating systems and devices.

In the view of Academician Lu Jian of Nanjing University, the next generation of operating system should be a scenario-based intelligent operating system, which can change according to the characteristics of different scenarios, adopt intelligent and automated methods, and realize the organic and efficient integration of man, machine and things. Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, also emphasized that the operating system should not be iOS and Android, but should be a personalized operating system.

But at present, the depth of AI in mobile phone operating systems is far from enough. Shen Yang, a professor at the School of Journalism and Communication at Tsinghua University, said in an interview with Caijing New Media that the current combination of AI and PC operating systems is mainly at the application layer, not at the kernel layer, which is a bit like a plug-in. If you make an operating system purely from the perspective of AI, you need to completely redo it with AI logic from the bottom code, which is very demanding. "A lot of calculations don't allow errors, and AI phones can first build in a large model that can run on the phone, and complete things that don't require high accuracy such as Q&A and translation. ”

2. How big is the commercial space under differentiated competition?

It is undeniable that behind the layout of AI mobile phones and the reconstruction of the operating system, there is a huge commercial space.

IDC expects global shipments of next-generation AI phones to exceed 170 million units in 2024, accounting for about 15% of overall smartphone shipments, and Counterpoint expects shipments to reach 522 million units in 2027, with a penetration rate of 40%. With the integrated development of IoT and AI, everything has the ability to be intelligently connected, and AI mobile phones are expected to "leverage" the Internet of Everything ecosystem.

Guotai Junan's computer team pointed out in the research report that historical experience shows that once the competitive pattern of operating systems is formed, latecomers have almost no possibility of turning around. If a new operating system can grasp the opportunity of the Internet of Everything and lower the threshold for the combination of software and hardware, then it is possible to cultivate a series of explosive innovative applications based on edge hardware, so as to grasp the right to speak in the industry ecology in the next ten or twenty years.

In the mobile operating system market, Android and iOS have long occupied the vast majority of the market. As various manufacturers compete to develop their own mobile phone operating systems and seize AI mobile phones, domestic manufacturers have entered an important node in whether they can rewrite the market pattern. Among them, the ecosystem is generally regarded as the key to the success or failure of the operating system, and a complete ecosystem needs to be built not only by mobile phone manufacturers, but also by software developers, chip companies and other entities in the industry chain.

From the perspective of positioning, the HarmonyOS operating system has become a full-scene pan-terminal operating system equipped with various terminal devices such as mobile phones, computers, smart wearables, and car machines. Xiaomi's surging OS claims to be born to complete the closed loop of "people, cars, and homes". Mobile phone manufacturers such as vivo and ZTE are also accelerating their "roots" in ecological cooperation. For mobile phone manufacturers, cross-border integration has the underlying logic of its industrial supply chain and value chain upgrading. Su Jing, president of Meizu, told Caijing New Media that the core enterprises in the upstream supply chain of consumer electronics have already laid out the core accessories of mobile phones and automobiles, and extended the product track from consumer electronics to the automotive industry.

It is also worth noting that, unlike the previous mobile phone manufacturers that used the ARM public GPU solution, in order to strengthen the AI computing capability of mobile phone chips, some manufacturers have begun to develop their own GPUs to form differentiated competitive advantages. For example, Apple's self-developed Custom Shader architecture, Huawei's self-developed Cartesian architecture, etc.

In the overall context, incompatible Android applications have begun to become a microcosm of the new competition in the operating system market.

TechInsights, a research firm, has predicted that HarmonyOS will overtake Apple's iOS as China's second-largest smartphone operating system in 2024. In April, Huawei announced that more than 4,000 apps have joined the HarmonyOS ecosystem for the development of native apps, and HarmonyOS NEXT will be released in the fourth quarter of this year for consumer commercial use, when Android-based apps will no longer be compatible. This means that developers need to redevelop or adapt the app to run on the HarmonyOS system. Prior to this, vivo vice president Zhou introduced in an interview with the media that the Blue River operating system is not compatible with Android applications for the time being, and the future depends on needs. However, the Blue River operating system was first applied to smart watches, and has not yet been considered on mobile phones.

With a self-developed operating system, manufacturers can achieve independent control at the level of system function updates and user experience. However, some industry experts are worried that various manufacturers are increasing the layout of self-developed operating systems, which may make the operating system ecology more fragmented, the interconnection of devices between them more fragmented, and even the adaptation workload of developers may increase.

Under the differentiated competition, open terminals have become another microcosm of the AI strategy.

For example, in February this year, Meizu released the Meizu 21 PRO, which claims to be open to all large models in the industry, and also provides developers with system permissions, API documentation, and the AI computing power of the processor. "In the past, there was an App store on the phone, and in the future it must be the Agent store. In Shen Ziyu's view, the whole set of links is the relationship between the mobile phone agent (agent) and the application agent, not the app. Meizu wants to connect all the agents of the entire ecosystem and have an open base, so the workload will be relatively large after FlymeOS AI.

Third, personal mobile phone assistants may become standard, and the business model will change

An AI agent is an agent with autonomous decision-making, environmental awareness, and reaction capabilities in the field of artificial intelligence. Since Apple launched Siri in the iPhone 4S in 2011, AI Agent, a personal assistant running on top of the operating system, has risen one after another and has been around for many years.

Dr. Li Bojie, the former "genius boy" of Huawei and co-founder of Logenic AI, recently published an article on AI Agent thinking. In this article, he argues that the goal of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is to be an AI agent with both slow thinking and human-like attributes, but there is a huge gap between the current AI agent and human dreams. The truly valuable AI of the future is like Samantha in the movie "Her", which is faster and better than traditional operating systems, and at the same time acts like a person.

Under the assumption of many manufacturers, the AI mobile phone of the future is also like a super assistant. Although the current interaction method is relatively simple, and most users need to click on specific function options to use it first, the functions are becoming richer with the update of the operating system. "Caijing" new media also learned from OPPO that it mainly does large model capabilities on its own operating system version, and there will be no additional charges, and more AI functions will be launched through version updates in the future. In March this year, Samsung Electronics also announced the global launch of One UI 6.1 system push, and nine models can experience the "Galaxy AI" function through system updates.

In Li Bojie's view, the current useful AI agents can be roughly divided into two categories: personal assistant and business intelligence. AI Agents for personal assistants, including Siri on mobile phones, Xiaodu smart speakers, etc. As an AI agent for business intelligence, data and industry know-how are the moats. In the future, after the mobile assistant becomes the standard, the App will definitely provide an Intent-based API for the mobile assistant, and the AI Agent will release the corresponding data when the AI Agent clarifies what data you want, and the problem of App data chimney will be completely solved. Whether the major app manufacturers are willing to cooperate is a commercial issue between mobile phone manufacturers and app manufacturers.

He also emphasized that, firstly, the AI Agent runs on decentralized computing power and models, so there is no need to worry about the platform running away. Each user has full ownership of their own AI agent or digital twin, guaranteeing privacy and ownership. In the future, autonomous digital life also needs to have independent human rights and cannot be controlled by centralization.

Second, after decentralization, an economic model can be built for creators and platforms to share revenue, and AI Agent creators can make a profit, only need to pay transparent decentralized computing power costs, and realize a benign profit sharing between computing power and AI Agent creators, and naturally have the motivation to do a good job in optimization.

CICC also believes that AI Agent will accelerate the implementation of mobile phones, and differentiated OS systems will become the focus of competition. In the research report, it said that in the long run, the operation of device-side AI requires the collaboration of large models with mobile phone OS operating systems, mobile phone hardware and mobile phone local models. The development direction of the mobile AI agent is that the agent can independently call the mobile application, so that users can enjoy the service of the exclusive mobile phone intelligent assistant, so as to break the barrier of the app and realize cross-application operation through independent planning and decision-making.

It is foreseeable that personal assistants may become standard on AI mobile phones in the future. If search engines and intelligent robot assistants become important entrances for users to obtain information and interact, the entrance function of apps and app stores may be weakened, and the business model of the current software ecosystem of mobile phone manufacturers may change.