From 1962 to 1973, it was the second wave of baby boom since the founding of the mainland. During these 11 years, the highest number of births was 29.593 million in 1963 and the lowest was 24.63 million in 1972. Compared with the birth population of 9.02 million in 2023, is it really a lot of pressure to provide for the elderly in the future?
How much pressure is on the pension insurance fund?
(1) This is not to say that 24 or 5 million people retire every year. In fact, there are two kinds of pension insurance systems in the mainland, and our retirement system specifically refers to the basic pension insurance system for employees, and the current participation rate is more than 50%. According to the 2022 Statistical Communiqué on the Development of Human Resources and Social Security, the number of employed people in the country that year was 733.51 million, of which 367.11 million employees were insured, and the participation rate just exceeded 50%.
According to the mainland's retirement policy, men retire at the age of 60, while women retire at the age of 55 or 50. Despite the fact that our insurance policy is becoming more and more relaxed, in fact, men who have reached the age of 60 and many women who have reached the age of age do not actually receive a pension.
According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security's 14th Five-Year Plan, it is estimated that the number of new retirees from 2021 to 2025 will be 40 million, or an average of about 8 million per year. This figure is actually about the same as the net increase in the number of retirees. In 2021, the number of retirees in the mainland will only be 131.57 million, and in 2022, there will be a net increase of 4.87 million, and if you count more than 3 million deceased, the number of new retirees will be about 8 million.
The people who did not participate in the employee pension insurance were basically included in the pension insurance for urban and rural residents. The level of pension insurance for urban and rural residents is much lower, and it mainly depends on state financial subsidies, and the corresponding pension pressure is not great. At the end of 2022, the number of urban and rural residents in mainland China receiving pension insurance benefits was 164.64 million (basically people over 60 years old), and the pension insurance fund expenditure was 404.4 billion yuan, with an average of only 205 yuan per person per month. The relevant treatment is only 1/18 of the employee pension insurance, so this part does not constitute too much pressure.
(2) Pensions paid by retirees are not paid only by young people. In recent years, the government has been making more and more information disclosure of social security funds. According to the data released by the Ministry of Finance, in 2022, the total income of the basic pension insurance fund for employees of mainland enterprises will be 4.79 trillion yuan, of which the income from insurance premiums will be only 3.88 trillion yuan, the income from financial subsidies will reach 710.595 billion yuan, and the interest income will be 94.443 billion yuan. The income from insurance premiums paid by employees accounts for only 81% of the income from the basic pension insurance fund for employees. For the pension insurance fund of government institutions and institutions, the financial subsidy is 591.4 billion yuan, accounting for 38.8% of the total income of the fund.
In recent years, the country has been actively responding to aging. In 2000, the state established the National Council of Social Security Fund, which has accumulated 2.5 trillion yuan of rights and interests in the National Social Security Fund through financial allocation or other means. In addition, the state has also transferred 10% of the equity of state-owned enterprises to the social security fund, which can provide better income supplement for the social security fund.
(3) The social support system will be further optimized. According to the number of insured employees in 2022, the number of retirees who need to be supported is 136.44 million, and the social dependency ratio is 2.69:1. In order to slow down the reduction of the dependency ratio, the state has long made it clear in the 14th Five-Year Plan that it will implement a delayed retirement policy. In particular, Jiangsu Province has launched a postponement retirement policy in 2022, which allows the retirement time to be postponed for more than one year upon the application of the employee himself, the consent of the employer, and the filing with the human resources and social security department. In the future, the retirement age policy will definitely be liberalized in the form of flexible retirement, which will not cause too much pressure on the society, and can also slow down the decrease in the number of in-service employees and the increase in the number of retirees.
In recent years, the adjustment speed of pensions has also bid farewell to the past 11 consecutive years of 10% rapid growth, the growth rates in the past four years were 5%, 4.5%, 4% and 3.8%, which have reserved a large buffer space for the retirement tide.
Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the retirement of baby boomers, the state has already responded to it. #婴儿潮一代退休 How much pressure is on pensions#