Cheng Wenhua: Read "Future Development: From Digital Intelligence Economy to Sharing Society" What should the future digital intelligence society look like?
Good book recommendation
★★★★★
The future is a fascinating and permanent topic. When he was a teenager, he was obsessed with Ye Yonglie's "PHS Roaming the Future", and when he was young, he was intoxicated by Toffler's "The Third Wave". Dr. Shao Chunbao's "Future Series" is a successful exploration of this theme, only to find that there is still an endless future waiting for human beings to create and build. Recently, I read the second part of the "Future Series", "Future Development", and I experienced and felt a lot. People want to find out what the uncertain future is, how does this book describe the future? After reading the preface by economist Wang Jingjing, Wu Hequan, Wang Jianzhou and other 12 academicians, experts, industry leaders, and entrepreneurs, I couldn't wait to pick up this new work that exudes the fragrance of ink. Last year, I read the author's "Future Engine: From the Technological Revolution to a New World", which was a tour of the past, present and future of the technological world. This "Future Development: From Digital Intelligence Economy to Sharing Society" is a demonstration of the digital intelligence style of the 21st century. The author uses rigorous logic, rigorous data, unrestrained passion, and extensive references to discuss the gestation, development and trend of the digital intelligence era, bringing people into a magnificent and colorful future world. Futurology is a "telescope" for mankind to explore future development. "The sole certainty is that tomorrow will surprise us all," Toffler said. He is known worldwide for his futuristic trilogy such as "Future Shock", "The Third Wave", and "The Transfer of Power". In the early 80s, "The Third Wave", as the first popular work of Western thought published in China, had a strong shock and influence on young people at that time. In the late 80s, I had the privilege of studying with Brother Chunbao in the graduate class, and I remember that he was always the most active thinker and the most active speaker in the class. I remember that in the discussion before and after class, Chunbao mentioned from time to time the feelings of reading Toffler, the future world and the information revolution that Toffler talked about were unheard of at that time, and the blueprint for the future outlined in the book, especially the discussion that developing countries can once again stand on the same starting line as developed countries, is inspiring! "Just like our revolutionary ancestors, our mission is destined to create the future. The sensational description in Toffler's book has filled many students with pride. The wave of new technologies has brought new opportunities for the rise of the nation, and has provided countless young people with a space full of passion and imagination. Forty years on, Toffler's description of the third wave has mostly become a reality, and Toffler's unforeseen sights are "taking everyone by surprise," and to the same surprise of a few of my classmates, Chunbao has since become a fruitful future scholar after stepping down from his heavy duties. There is no doubt that Dr. Chunbao's successful transformation like a phoenix is not only the imprint of his youth, but also from his tireless hard work and bee-like learning, and from his unique research perspective and scientific exploration spirit. The author said in the preface that although this book was published after "Future Engine", it was completed earlier than the former, and it is the crystallization of his continuous learning, looking at the frontier, and exploring the laws. The process of research, writing, and creation is extremely difficult, and according to Senior Brother Qisheng, who also loves to study, sometimes for a question and an expression, Chunbao students will stay up until midnight, send WeChat messages and discuss with them until a spark of value emerges. This book embodies the wisdom and painstaking efforts of Dr. Chunbao, "Future Development", the content is broad, involving the economy, society and governance of digitalization, from the overall context, logic and law, I think it answers several questions about where digitalization is going: First, the ins and outs of the digital economy? This book believes that the digital economy has undergone quantitative changes, qualitative changes and radical changes. Quantitative change is the gradual development of the three elements of material, energy and information, bringing about the information economy, network economy, and knowledge economy, and accumulating many factors of digitalization; qualitative change is the strong role of a new round of scientific and technological revolution with digital intelligent technology as the core, that is, continuous breakthroughs in digital technology, iterative optimization of networks, and massive accumulation of data, so that the data, networks, and information that have appeared in the quantitative changes have changed from data, tools, and technologies to resources, The nature of the elements and contents ushers in a new form of digitalization in the process of qualitative change, and the radical change is accidental, because even if the qualitative change is completed, it generally takes two contour periods (about decades) for the development of normal scientific and technological products and applications to industrialization. Interestingly, the global epidemic prevention and control has accelerated the arrival of the industrialization of digital technology, so that digital technology can be rapidly and universally applied in preventing infection, ensuring life, and saving lives, making the bad thing of the global epidemic epidemic a good thing here, prompting the digital economy to have a drastic change or mutation, allowing people to adapt to digital products and services, and a new era or a new economic and social form has finally taken shape. The digital age has the same important historical position as the agricultural age and the industrial age, and it will become the main mode and feature of future development after the industrial age. Second, what are the advantages of the digital society over the industrial society? In the author's discussion of the digital economy surpassing the traditional society, I feel most deeply about the three development methods. The first is the intelligent production mode of the digital society, through which more intelligent robots gradually replace human labor, will produce more and better products, form services, and make the cake bigger, which will increase social wealth and bring value more efficiently than the traditional manufacturing method; Resources, whether production or living consumption, people care more about the right to use products, so as to reduce the duplication and waste caused by the possession of various properties, effectively solve the problem of unbalanced development, and develop towards the trend of sharing and common prosperity; This way of relying on intelligence to improve productivity, relying on platforms to promote balanced development, and relying on light assets to ensure sustainable development will make the industrial prosperity of oil rolling, machines rumbling, and chimneys more become virtual platforms to allocate resources, unmanned and unmanned, no lights, and no workshop management of intelligent machines for quiet production, customized sales and experiential services. Third, why should digital governance be implemented? The products, technologies, tools, and services of the digital economy are widely used in society, education, culture, and life, and the whole society presents digital application scenarios everywhere, and promotes the digital development of employment, education, health, life, and other aspects through various digital intelligent platforms. The economy and society as the object of governance are rapidly digitizing, and if the governance subject still uses the traditional governance method, it will be difficult to adapt to the digitalization and intelligence of the governance object. In order to adapt to the general development of digitalization, it is necessary to reform the traditional governance mode, make the governance subject and governance mode suitable for the governance object, reflect the digital governance of production relations, and actively adapt to the digital development driven by new quality productivity through adjustment and reform, and actively react to the digital economy with the adjusted new production relations to ensure its positive, healthy and safe development. On the basis of the development of the digital economy, Dr. Chunbao discussed the development trend of labor and employment, education and learning, health and longevity, survival and life in the future. In terms of labor and employment, the author believes that some phased characteristics are emerging from now on, including the transformation of labor from burden and livelihood to happiness and need, employment from social and public pressure to ease and ease, labor value will be embodied by human beings and artificial intelligence, and industrial civilization will transform into digital and intelligent civilization in the transition of labor stage. There will be some dual phenomena in labor and employment, such as the shortening of working hours and the extension of free time, the combination of human labor and robot labor, and the deepening of social division of labor and the gradual elimination of labor division. The book judges that the speed of robots replacing people has an accelerating trend, and the proportion of new jobs generated by artificial intelligence will be greatly reduced, and integrates six judgment methods for the easy elimination and non-elimination of labor positions, and believes that the work left by artificial intelligence to humans and the human-machine collaborative employment model will be linked to the all-round development of people. In terms of education trends, the authors believe that with the development and application of generative AI, the transformation and upgrading of knowledge education→ ability education→ and smart education will be accelerated in turn. From the author's exposition of educational philosophy, purpose, form and method, I read the three points emphasized by Dr. Chunbao, that is, education focuses on discovering people's potential and hobbies, tapping people's inner driving force, and cultivating people's correct values, and then proposes the transformation of school education to social education, the transformation of schooling education to lifelong education, the transformation of elite education to shared education, and the transformation of traditional education methods to intelligent education methods. In terms of health and longevity, the author believes that in the future, the health cause has the conditions to break through many limitations, link the important factors related to human health in a broader sense, and establish a healthy ecology; human beings will seize the opportunities brought about by the new scientific and technological revolution, meet the corresponding challenges, give full play to the role of new science and technology, and break through the hot and difficult pain points in medical and health care; all countries and regions will be in the process of globalization, In the tide of digitalization, insight may involve the key nodes of human destiny and evolution, and give us the foresight to grasp the strategic trend of healthy development, pursue advantages and avoid disadvantages, and strive for the initiative. In terms of survival and life, the development of digital intelligence will inevitably bring about people's high-quality survival and high-quality life. The way of life will be reshaped, such as the coexistence of man and machine, happy normal, simple life, zero-distance change, integration into nature, hobby first, integration of fragments, digital consumption; the new concept of intelligent life will be more popular, such as reshaping the relationship between production and life, the integration of atomic and bit thinking, not having to have everything but seeking to use, protecting privacy in open communication, the concept of carbon-based civilization and silicon-based civilization; the new mechanism of digital and intelligent life will be more perfect, including the connection and fit mechanism of social life, the self-awareness and expression mechanism of people, New mechanisms for interpersonal change. Albert Einstein said, "There are two ways of life, one is that there is nothing new in the world, and the other is that everything is a miracle." With digitalization moving towards the future, we will open up a new way of life, from digital intelligent community management, to digital intelligent family structure, to personal daily life, including food, clothing, living, travel, entertainment, and health preservation. Data has permeated all aspects of life, and it is no longer an illusion for humans and robots to live together. In the past two years, the transformation of AI has changed with each passing day, and new progress that subverts cognition has jumped into our eyes as soon as we open our eyes, which is beyond any of our past experiences, and it is completely believed that the changes in future life will be beyond most people's imagination. It's not easy to know the present, but it's even harder to find the future. Different people have different expectations for the future, but Dr. Chunbao's "Future Development" is an optimistic perspective on the future, and the whole text flashes with optimism on the basis of rationality. As the author says, without an objective, scientific, comprehensive, and developing understanding of the present, it is impossible to draw a correct foresight of the future. It is the application of scientific method, philosophical thinking, logical reasoning, and imagination and foresight that can shed some light on the future. The world is unpredictable, and despite entering the era of digital intelligence, wars, natural disasters, climate warming, extreme weather, food shortages, and virus crises threaten the survival of mankind all the time. Digital intelligence technology can change the living environment of human beings, and it will also bring the possibility of social risks, uncontrolled management, ethical crises and even the threat of AI. Mr. Liang Shuming once asked: "Will the world be okay?" At the same time, he also gave the answer: "The world depends on how we face and change it". We have reason to believe that under the light of human reason, the world will inevitably get better and better. I like Dr. Chunbao's poetic sentence in the preface to the book: "Standing at the intersection of history and the future, there is a shadow behind you, and there must be light in front of you, and some people like to trace the shape of the shadow...... The author wants to chase the light ......". Walking towards the light, the future can be expected. The road is long and resistant, and if you follow the light, you will eventually be glorious.
【Cheng Wenhua】
Note: Authorized to publish, this article has been selected and included in the "Chang'an Street Reading Club" theoretical learning platform (People's Daily, People's Political Consultative Conference Daily, Beijing Daily, Xinhuanet, CCTV, National Party Media Information Public Platform, Vision, Beijing Time, Surging Government Affairs, Phoenix News Client "Chang'an Street Reading Club" column synchronization), reprinting must be uniformly marked "Chang'an Street Reading Club" theoretical learning platform source and author.
Editor-in-charge: Liu Xingyue, preliminary review: Cheng Ziqian, Chen Jiani, re-examination: Li Yufan
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