Recently, the media on the island discovered a strange phenomenon. Since Ma Ying-jeou's visit to the mainland on 1 April, the number of PLA military planes circling Taiwan has been markedly reduced, and not a single military plane has crossed the so-called "center line of the Taiwan Strait." Taiwan media analysis believes that this may be related to Ma Ying-jeou's visit to the mainland, which is a show of goodwill by the mainland to Taiwan, and if it is willing to return to the "92 consensus", the tension in the Taiwan Strait can be effectively resolved. At the same time, it also tells the Taiwan authorities the fact that everything in Taiwan is passive, and the initiative lies on the mainland's side.
A few days ago, Ma Ying-jeou has arrived in Beijing, which is also his last stop this time. Before Ma Ying-jeou came to the mainland, he expressed through his foundation's executive director, Xiao Xucen, that he hoped to meet his "old friend" again this time, but also said that he would do whatever he wanted and respect the mainland's wishes. In 2015, leaders of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait held talks in Singapore to exchange views on further promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.
With this background, Ma Ying-jeou said that he wants to meet "old friends" during his current visit to the mainland, and there is indeed a certain degree of reasonableness. It is precisely because of this background that the outside world has high expectations for this "special meeting". It is hoped that Ma Ying-jeou, with his special status, will ease the increasingly tense situation in the Taiwan Strait since the vicious ship collision incident in Kinmen and prevent the two sides of the strait from falling into a spiral of hostility.
Previously, many Taiwan media speculated that this "special meeting" was most likely on April 8, but Ma Ying-jeou's itinerary did not have this link, which shocked the island. However, Guo Zhengliang, a critic on the island, said that he did not see him on April 8, which does not mean that he will not see him after that. Ma Ying-jeou will stay on the mainland until the 11th, and there will still be a chance later. Ma Ying-jeou is very cautious, if he can't achieve his goal, why is he going to Beijing?
Indeed, what Guo Zhengliang said is not unreasonable: There is still a chance for a "special meeting" between the two sides of the strait, and Ma Ying-jeou is still in Beijing. However, Guo Zhengliang ignored the fact that Ma Ying-jeou no longer has any official position on the island, just because he has served as the leader of the Taiwan region, and his influence is still there. However, this influence is also limited, and it is far from sufficient to influence the choice of the Taiwan authorities on the cross-strait issue, and even its influence within the "blue camp" is very limited.
Before the election on the island, Ma Ying-jeou publicly stated that "as far as cross-strait relations are concerned, we must trust the mainland's top leaders." As soon as this remark came out, not only did the DPP speak ill of Ma Ying-jeou, but the KMT also showed with practical actions that it did not agree with Ma Ying-jeou's viewpoint. Ma Ying-jeou was also kicked out of the list of invitees during the Kuomintang's pre-election night campaign.
At the beginning of this month, Professor Qiu Yi, a scholar on the island, revealed that when Ma Ying-jeou visited the mainland, Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun secretly left Taiwan to go to the United States, and shouted in the United States that "the mainland wants to recover Taiwan, which is not good for the United States." Immediately afterwards, Xia Liyan also visited the United States and led a delegation to the United States, which should be to implement Zhu Lilun's "pro-US and far-center" line. Before setting off on his journey, he also particularly stressed that "being pro-US, friendly to Japan, and making peace with the mainland" is the consistent policy of the Kuomintang.
The fundamental reason why Zhu Xia and the two joined forces this time is to "compete for favor" with the DPP in front of the United States, and what they value is still the little political self-interest on the island, and they have left all the national interests behind, and the conspiracy to seek "independence" and provoke by external forces has come to the fore, and this has undoubtedly greatly reduced the positive significance of Ma Ying-jeou's visit to the mainland. However, compared with these "blue-skinned and green-skinned" Kuomintang high-level leaders, it is Lai Qingde who deserves more vigilance on the mainland.
With less than a month and a half left on May 20, the island is rapidly transitioning to the transition between the old and new teams, and defense affairs are naturally the top priority. Recently, Lai Qingde took his deputy Hsiao Mei-qin, the "secretary general" of the security council Gu Lixiong, and the head of national defense Qiu Guozheng to visit Taiwan's highest military scientific research institution, the "Sun Yat-sen Academy of Science." Although the contents were kept secret, the Taiwan media still revealed a lot of information.
Among them, Taiwan media quoted a number of anonymous military experts on the island as saying that it is expected that after Lai Qingde takes over, it is possible to plan the second phase of the "Sea and Air Combat Capability Improvement Plan" after Tsai Ing-wen promotes the end of the "Sea and Air Combat Capability Improvement Plan". It has even been rumored that Lai Qingde intends to list the "Yunfeng missile" as a key missile to be produced during his term of office, so as to enhance the island's defense capability for independent defense.
This so-called "Yunfeng" missile is a cruise missile independently developed on the island and is an offensive weapon. The specific range is varied, some say 1,200 km, others say 2,000 km. Earlier, Zhang Yushao, former deputy director of the DPP's Department of Mainland Affairs, had clamored that the "Yunfeng" missile could strike the PLA's military bases in the hinterland and cover the Three Gorges Dam, "making the mainland think about whether to bear the consequences of the Taiwan military's retaliation."
Previously, in order to prevent the Taiwan authorities from excessively provoking Chinese mainland and restricting the Taiwan military's development and production of offensive weapons, US arms sales to Taiwan were mainly defensive weapons. However, after Tsai Ing-wen took office, the United States intends to relax such restrictions. Now Lai Qingde's style is clearly more radical than Tsai Ing-wen.
However, given the strength of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) today, the Taiwan military's attempt to rely on the "Yunfeng" missile to carry out the so-called "source strike" is simply self-defeating. These offensive weapons have long been the focus of the PLA, and once there is a change in the Taiwan Strait, they will be destroyed at the first time, and there will be no chance of launching them into the air.
Lai Qingde's behavior is not disguised, and the mainland also has new moves. A few days ago, the media on the island suddenly broke the news that after the Kinmen ship collision and capsizing incident, at the end of February, three mainland coast guard ships entered the waters east of Taiwan Island for the first time, and their specific location was 26 nautical miles southeast of Pengjiayu, suspected of sailing into 24 nautical miles of "restricted waters" in order to evade fishing nets on the sea.
According to the analysis of scholars on the island, the mainland plans to deploy a "terrestrial version of Starlink" composed of 26,000 satellites in low-earth orbit to challenge SpaceX's Starlink system. The three coast guard vessels are part of the test of the satellite system, which aims to provide more accurate strike information for the PLA Rocket Force's Dongfeng-21 and Dongfeng-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles.
Facts have proven that the series of measures taken by the Taiwan authorities are undoubtedly a grasshopper shaking a big tree, and they are ridiculous and self-defeating, not to mention that they want to use the "Yunfeng" missile to hit the hinterland of the mainland, they are seeking their own death! If the "Yunfeng" missile can play any role, it can only send the "Taiwan independence" forces to the western sky faster.