Under the new regulations, in the next 10 years, three types of houses may become golden houses, and some people have already begun to buy them
New Talks on Real Estate
2024-04-08 05:00Published in Henan
At the beginning of 2023, many people are still optimistic about house prices, and the real estate market in many cities is also showing a boom. It is generally believed that house prices will usher in a sharp rise in 2023, however, as house prices continue to fall, the original bulls have gradually turned bearish. This dramatic shift in perception of housing prices is not easy. After all, over the past 20 years, house prices have been rising unilaterally, and their indestructible upward trend has taken root in the hearts of the people. Most people think that house prices are only going up, not down, and they are skeptical about the possibility of them falling. However, in the past year or so, the property market has been bailed out under the policy. The continuous decline in housing prices has completely subverted many people's traditional perception of housing prices.
In 2024, various localities have stepped up their efforts to rescue the market, which makes people wonder: will the future trend of housing prices repeat the mistakes of the past and reproduce the rapid growth of the past? This question undoubtedly affects the hearts of countless people, not only buyers who just need to look forward to it, but also investors who have multiple suites. In the author's opinion, the possibility of a re-emergence of housing prices is minimal. Even if overall house prices are still likely to rise, it will be mainly due to higher house prices in the first and second tier cities, which will push up the average. In other words, house prices will diverge in the future, with some cities likely to maintain steady growth, while others may face the pressure of a correction in house prices. There are two main reasons for the emergence of this divergent trend:
1. The current housing resources in the mainland have undergone significant changes, shifting from shortage to surplus. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita housing area of urban residents in mainland China has jumped to more than 40 square meters, which is far more than the 33 square meter standard of developed countries in Europe and the United States. What is even more remarkable is that the data released by the central bank's survey team in early 2020 showed that by the end of 2019, 96.86% of urban households in mainland China had owned a house, with an average of more than 1.5 units, and 41.5% of households owned more than 2 properties. These two sets of data clearly reveal the phenomenon of over-housing, especially in cities where population loss continues, and this trend will become even more pronounced in the future.
2. With the changes of the times, people's concept of buying houses is also quietly changing. In the past, both investors and buyers who just needed to buy a home regarded buying a house as a means of investment, believing that buying a house would bring profits. However, the current property market environment is very different. Under the influence of the property market regulation policy and the concept of "housing for living, not for speculation", more and more people have begun to focus on "living" when buying houses. When the original intention of buying a house becomes living, people's requirements for the quality of housing also increase, which also reflects the pursuit and expectation of residents for the quality of life.
From the above two observations, the house of the future will gradually return to its essence - residential attributes. Homes that are of excellent quality and habitable will gradually be preferred by the public. In addition to quality, location is also an indispensable part of a property. Residences that are strategically located and of a high quality of living will undoubtedly be more sought after in the future.
Under the guidance of the new regulations, in the next ten years, the three types of houses may be transformed into "golden houses".
Category 1: Older houses located in the center of the city, in prime locations, and relatively young
Although these old homes in urban centers may be criticized for their age, the greenery and infrastructure of the community are slightly outdated, as well as the unsatisfactory property services. But it is undeniable that they have a geographical advantage that is unmatched by any other new community. Moreover, compared with the newly built commercial houses that often cost tens of thousands of yuan per square meter, the prices of these old houses are usually much more affordable. In an area I am familiar with, for example, the price of newly built commercial housing has soared to more than 20,000 yuan per square meter, while the old house in the same area is only about 13,000 yuan per square meter.
Nowadays, with the in-depth implementation of urban renewal policies and the steady progress of old renovation projects, these old houses are ushering in the opportunity of nirvana. After careful transformation, the old community will have a new look, and the quality of living will also be qualitatively improved. Especially for those old houses that are younger and are expected to be equipped with elevators, the living experience of residents in the future will be comparable to that of luxury elevator apartments. Therefore, people of insight have set their sights on this kind of old house and laid it out in advance to obtain a greater return on investment.
The second category: low-rise bungalows close to the city
In modern cities, high-rise housing has sprung up, while low-rise housing is scarce. However, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's recently issued Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of Cities and Architectural Landscapes clearly states that small and medium-sized cities should strictly restrict the construction of new super high-rise buildings, and county residences should be mainly multi-storey. This indicates a gradual reduction in the number of new high-rise housing in cities in the future.
This policy comes at the right time, as the disadvantages of high-rise housing have gradually emerged, and their living comfort is far less than that of low-rise housing. Despite developers' preference for high-rise housing, housing prices remain high, leaving many people at a discouragement. However, with the implementation of the policy, the supply of low- and medium-rise residential buildings in the future will gradually increase, while high-rise residential buildings will gradually fade out of the market. This means that buyers will have more choice, and high-rise residences that are uncomfortable to live in will gradually lose the market.
Therefore, it is a wise move for current home buyers to choose a low-rise bungalow. While the price of low-rise bungalows is relatively high, the prices of low-rise bungalows located on the outskirts of the city are relatively affordable. If the economic conditions allow, buyers can give priority to buying low-rise bungalows close to the city. These areas have a lot of potential for future development and will make the living environment more comfortable and pleasant.
The third category: oases in the city – homes by parks and lakes
This year, many cities have suspended construction of artificial lakes, a decision that has had far-reaching implications for areas of northern cities where lakes are scarce. This means that Lakeview Homes will become an increasingly rare gem in northern cities. Residences close to parks and lakes have long been synonymous with livable places. Not only are they far away from the hustle and bustle of the city, but they are also blessed with a unique natural environment that allows residents to enjoy tranquility and fresh air. For the elderly and children, it is an ideal place for their leisure and entertainment.
In today's urban forest made of steel and concrete, lakes and parks are like brilliant emeralds, embedded in this gray land, bringing vitality and vitality to the city. However, with the tightening of environmental protection policies, even the artificial lake projects that have already been approved have not been spared and have been forced to suspend them. This undoubtedly indicates that the lakes and parks of the future will become extremely rare treasures in the city. As a result, the value of homes in close proximity to these natural treasures will become even more prominent.
To sum up, a house is not only a place to live, but also a reflection of the quality of life. With the increasing demand for people's living quality, those high-quality and beautiful residences will be more and more favored by the market. Whether it's in the heart of a first-tier city or a tranquil retreat close to parks and lakes, they're the focus of attention. After all, a house is meant to be lived in, and a truly valuable house is a home that people can yearn for and are willing to pay for.