Yang Deyong, founder of Maternal and Child Industry Observation: It is difficult to leave the table and come back, and the remainder is king in 2024
On March 27, the "Way Out: 2024 New Channel Conference & Growth Category Conference" hosted by Maternal and Child Industry Observation came to a successful conclusion in Guangzhou. Yang Deyong, founder of Maternal and Child Industry Watch, shared the latest market research and industry insights, and foresaw eight possible development trends in 2024, providing new inspiration for the industry. Here's what's in the show:
Today's theme is: Professionalism creates value, and the era of refined operation has arrived. We often talk about the way out, and now there are fewer and fewer ways out, and everyone can generally feel the pressure, but the maternal and infant industry is actually a rigid industry, don't over-interpret, there are still many opportunities.
2023 is a small trough, and the development of the maternal and infant market in 2024 is not bad, both online and offline.
Characteristics of Guangdong's maternal and infant market: The birth rate and consumption power are acceptable, the business is relatively easy to do, and the overall store closure rate is not high; the imported products in circulation are sold well, the milk powder business is still the majority, and the nutritional products are treated as profiteering; the integration of chain stores is accelerated, and the single stores jointly take the goods; the large stores are closed for small boutique stores, and there are not many boutique and conditioning stores.
What does a good store look like? A single store depends on the boss, the system depends on resources, and there is nothing to do in the middle. Let me tell you an example of "there is a way to do it in the middle", some time ago I met a friend, he has 7 or 8 stores, first streamlined and contracted the stores with poor efficiency, and then turned the old employees into customer service, opened online, mined private domain traffic, and cooperated with whoever has supply chain advantages. In the past, the operation and management of stores was a big problem, but now there are no management problems, and I have experience in personnel operation, private domain and supply chain, and there is not so much pressure on the business to roll. It doesn't have to be impossible to do it in the middle, the key is what you have and how you do it.
What may the mother and baby store look like in the future? traditional mother and baby stores, boutique mother and child stores, conditioning stores, mother and child convenience stores, and family nutrition stores. In the future, traditional mother and baby stores must account for the majority, and boutique mother and baby stores will think of the volume, which is difficult in a short period of time and can be used as a supplement. We found that there could be opportunities for growth by combining convenience stores and wholemamma nutrition.
What kind of agents live well? One is that the agents who choose products very close to the needs of consumers live well, and the gross profit of the products may not be high, but the liquidity is good; the other is the agents who choose professional products, such as nutritional products.
Is supply chain integration the way out?Lvchen, Baby Belle, Zhongyi, Pregnant and Infant World, Baby World...... are all integrating supply chains. Why supply chain integration was not successful before, is it possible to succeed now? The key depends on the nature of the matter.
Is 2024 the first year or reincarnation of open franchises?One of the biggest strategies of Kid King in 2024 is to open franchises, Haidilao, Heytea, Luckin Coffee, and Convenience Bee...... It doesn't seem to be related to the maternal and infant industry, but these leading companies have made a move - open to joining. I am relatively optimistic about opening up to join, if the foundation is laid, the market and the magnitude will be pulled up, and the development is still good.
Will 2024 be more difficult? Maybe everyone thinks that the days are more difficult, share a data, three cups later, released an article - 2024 The remainder is king, the survey results show that 80% of people think 2024 will be more difficult, which reflects everyone's collective mood. I think 2024 will definitely not be as difficult as 2023, 2024 will have its own difficulties, but it may be a little better than 2023.
Will the birth rate rise in 2024? Judging from objective data and market feedback, the birth rate will definitely rise in 2024, at least not decline. The number of births in 2023 is 9.02 million, and some people at the scene predict that the number of births may rise to 10 million in 2024. Share the data of Xiaohongshu, which has become an important reference for users to search for information and brand channel layout. The data shows that the number of searches related to dragon babies, pregnancy preparation, and milk powder is rising. Judging from the feedback from the market side, the data after the end of the first quarter of this year is much better than that at the end of last year. Both online and offline are growing, and the market is picking up. It proves that when everyone's mentality reaches the bottom, things may get better, and the mentality is not in the end, and the market will always deviate from expectations.
1. Slow down
From the perspective of the overall environment, the GDP market has slowed down, why do we need to be fast? For the workers in the maternal and infant industry, the pressure is relatively great, one is that the general environment has slowed down, and the other is the decline in the birth rate, if the mentality still wants to grow rapidly, it is unrealistic. In 2024, the planning and expectations should be a little more stable, and the expected planning of many friends has been lowered, which is very important.
I will share with you a feeling, I have been working in the maternal and infant industry for 10 years, 10 years ago, people's perception of the maternal and infant industry was: just demand, high frequency, sunrise industry; 10 years later, many people feedback that it is not easy to do the maternal and infant industry, and it is necessary to persevere. In the past decade, society's perception of the maternal and infant industry has changed a lot.
2. K-type differentiation
Many people feel different, some people think that consumption is upgraded, some people think that consumption is downgraded, in fact, they are all right, the reason is that consumption grading. The products on Douyin that fly close to the ground sell very well, and the mid-to-high-end, high-end, and ultra-high-end also sell well, but it is difficult to sell in the middle, so it is K-shaped differentiation, consumption classification, user stratification, brand differentiation, and channel differentiation.
Third, from cost performance to quality and price ratio
Cost performance is the foundation, behind which is the surplus of supply chain and resource supply. Over the years, we have been talking about cost performance, but now the cost performance is not so strong, not enough to meet consumer needs, the key is the quality and price ratio.
Fourth, the era of refined and differentiated operation has arrived
When I visited the Henan market, I saw that there was a mother and baby store that did a particularly good job, a store with three walls, one door is supplementary snacks, one side is nutrition, one side is supplies, this store has no milk powder and diapers, especially minimalist SKUs, and there is a swimming pool next to it. It was a weekday, but there were still a lot of users with their children in the store, which was amazing. The clerk does not promote products, but serves, and opens up new ways of development through differentiated and refined operations. If it is still operating in the previous state and does not provide value, it may be more difficult, and this inventory may return to the supermarket.
A friend who plays the role of an agency told me, "I can achieve my own marketing by helping customers improve their operations and help customers make money." "Today's excellent agents are no longer just pouring goods, but to make clear who your customers are, including store customers, agent customers, brand customers, everyone to do together, not only about specialization and service, to help partners make money together.
In the past few years, we have been focusing on local refined operations, bringing together representative stores, agents and brands from all over the world to grow together, hoping to bring value to everyone, improve the efficiency of business and growth.
Fifth, it is essentially the awakening of consumers' sense of sovereignty
I would like to share with you Ji Qi's point of view: "The media monopoly has been broken, consumers have become media producers and disseminators at the same time, and we are ushering in an era of consumer sovereignty of consumer equality, consumer democracy and consumer freedom. ”
Now diversified channels such as Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and WeChat make consumers better understand the brand, the product, and what they want. If the store still communicates according to the previous logic after the consumer arrives at the store, it will definitely be bad, which is the media monopoly is broken. In the past, we said that product is king, channel is king, and then the consumer is king. The three elements of the retail side have not changed, but the connotation has changed.
I often share an example of how Carrefour used to hold a supplier meeting in its own warehouse and ask partners to modify the size of their warehouse boxes, but now it doesn't work. At present, we are slowly returning to the era of consumer sovereignty, and the trend of awakening consumer sovereignty consciousness can only accelerate, which is irreversible.
6. It is our responsibility to remain optimistic
This sentence was sent by a friend in my circle of friends, and everyone was very sad at that time, and I suddenly felt very good when I saw this sentence, and I also wanted to share it with everyone, and I was optimistic to find a way out. The reason why we come together is to find a way out, and I hope we can inspire each other.
I like Ning Gaoning's quote very much: "Only by staying optimistic can we find ways to solve problems." Only by staying optimistic can we have the courage and confidence to face challenges. Don't worry too much about the changes in the outside world, do your own basic management, polish your products, accept competition, and build a stronger enterprise in the competition. ”
We have no choice, to remain optimistic is to see their real things, do a good job in the core competitiveness, if you are a single store owner, you must do a good job in this inventory, do a good job in service.
Seventh, optimistic about the direction of health
I am very optimistic about the direction of big health, and nutrition is a category in the field of big health. From the perspective of efficacy, boys' knees, hearts, and anti-aging needs, girls' whitening and thinning, children's taller, allergies, eyes and other needs all belong to the category of big health. We have settled on nutrition and recommend it to everyone.
VIII. Departing
Going overseas this year is a trend, and many people have already done it, but don't be overly anxious. Everyone's positioning and role are different, it is recommended that you first see if the cards in your hand are suitable for going to sea, whether the product, ability, and opportunity are matched, and whether it is worth doing and can be done.
Thanks to our partners, we have to say seriously every time, thank you for your support all the way, we can continue to move forward and do a lot of valuable activities. Every mother and baby is promoting the development of the industry, but our positioning and role are different, we may contribute to the development of the industry through goods, operations, stores, and service consumers, and we contribute to the industry through content, platforming, research, etc. As long as you are still in the maternal and child industry and still at the poker table, you will have your credit for the development of the industry to this day.
All the guests present today, if you have the opportunity to get the microphone, you must ensure that you can not tell the truth, but you must not tell the falsehood. This is our own gathering of mothers and babies, and when we come here, we will tell the truth, talk about real feelings, talk about dry goods, and give you some inspiration.
It is the fate of the expresser to be misunderstood. Presentation time is limited, it is impossible to be perfect in every aspect, and sometimes misunderstandings occur. I hope that the friends who listen to it will be more tolerant, don't be entangled in what they say is right or wrong, full and incomplete, we are here to illuminate each other, inspire each other, open up space for growth, don't raise the bar, we are here to improve business efficiency and growth efficiency.
Go all out for the people who recognize you. This is the standard of doing things that I and my team have believed in for many years, and it is also an extension of my personality, and it is the same in life and work, our lives are limited, and we will do our best for those who recognize you.
It's hard to leave the table and come back. An old friend has left the maternal and child industry, but he has stepped on three big holes in two years, and the industry is changing rapidly, and now he has no chance to think about it again. Which industry do you think is good because you don't know about that industry, cherish doing what you're good at, and don't overestimate your abilities.
The greatest danger in turbulent times is not the turmoil itself, but the fact that the logic of the past is still used to do things in the present. Is the logic of the past the same as the present? The industry is a cyclical cycle, there are things that do not change, but many details have changed, such as goods, users, and business logic. Recognizing the essence and making a difference is the way out.
Beyond the peak, the love is still there. The maternal and infant industry has gone through a peak period, and the industry has changed too quickly in recent years, and after the mentality adjustment period in 2023, I believe that the development of the industry will stabilize in 2024, but it is not a V-shaped reversal. How to achieve a new business balance under the new normal is a question we should think about.
I hope you will overcome adversity and reach the stars. Thank you!