Before the holiday, urea futures opened at a low level in the case of a sharp decline in spot prices, urea futures 09 contract opened at 1851 yuan (ton price, the same below), the lowest price was 1818 yuan, the highest price was 1893 yuan, and finally closed at 1876 yuan, with a maximum fluctuation range of 75 yuan during the week, and then affected by the overall commodity market to turn stronger. The spot price is high but the transaction is not smooth, and the transaction is still blocked after the price reduction, but the urea futures price is affected by the overall commodity futures to get out of the contrarian market. In terms of pre-holiday trading, the trading volume of urea futures 09 contracts was 633,000 contracts, an increase of 136,000 contracts week-on-week, and the open interest was 190,000 contracts, an increase of 38,900 contracts week-on-week.
The pre-holiday trading of domestic urea spot in the 05 contract relatively strong environment slightly improved, the 05 contract and the delivery area spot price difference is basically maintained between 20 ~ 100, in the moment when the spot price difference narrows, the spot transaction has improved significantly. During the Qingming holiday, the ex-factory price of urea in Shandong was sharply reduced to about 1950 yuan again, and then the price was raised, and the spot atmosphere changed slightly, but the relative deviation of the transaction in Henan due to the low decline. Shanxi large granular urea has seen a significant improvement in the transaction at the end of the summer, and the price has increased significantly.
In terms of output, the operating rate of domestic urea plants before the holiday declined compared with the previous period, with an average daily output of 185,000 tons, basically flat month-on-month, and an increase of 10,000 tons year-on-year.
On the demand side, there was a certain degree of stagnation in agricultural demand, and during the Qingming holiday, after the price of large granular urea in Shanxi fell sharply, the terminal agricultural market showed signs of starting, and the market price rose to a certain extent. Domestic industrial urea market procurement in the price after a sharp decline has also improved, compound fertilizer enterprises in the summer fertilizer period is still facing a certain degree of gap, to be the end of the fertilizer exports to improve, to observe the later replenishment, especially after the replenishment of large granular urea.
In the international market, India's RCF urea import standard purchase schedule to May 20, temporarily confirmed the transaction volume of at least 760,000 tons, the transaction price is 339 US dollars / ton CFR on the west coast and 347.7 US dollars / ton CFR on the east coast, the source of goods is mainly from Russia and the Middle East, and there is no Chinese urea transaction yet.
In the futures market, the 09 contract showed a trend of opening low and going high before the holiday, and the sharp decline in spot prices led to the opening of urea disk prices reduced by 20 yuan last Monday, and then continued to decline under the influence of bullish panic, and short funds continued to enter the market to suppress the market. With the improvement of the overall commodity market, some short funds focusing on the macro level began to retreat one after another, and some long funds also began to actively increase their positions, pushing up the market. Subsequently, in the context of the improvement of disk prices, the spot transaction still deteriorated, and the overall macro commodity market was slightly adjusted, and the disk fell again. On the last trading day, under the strength of the overall commodity market, the urea futures 09 contract strengthened again, but the 05 contract was relatively weak, and the price difference between the two contracts began to narrow.
Next week, it is expected that there will be a slight rebound in the case of a low price transaction at a low price, and the supply side may reduce the volume in the later stage, and the disk is expected to strengthen in the short term. However, under the absolute high level of domestic supply and the continuous decline of overseas prices, as well as the unsustainable impact of domestic demand, the weak market trend will be a high probability event. Investors can take advantage of the opportunity to understand the long positions of spot and futures held in the early stage, and lay out forward short orders along the way, so as to grasp the short opportunities brought by the macro market.
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Please indicate in the following format for reprinting: Source: Agricultural Resources Herald Author: Guo Qing Editor: Ma Xiaoru Review: Wang Meihong Producer: Wu Junsheng