Is the situation in the Taiwan Strait about to change? Taiwan experts have noticed that there have been three changes in the PLA's actions around Taiwan Island, and there is not much time left for the Taiwan authorities.
Taiwan experts have noticed that there have been three changes in the PLA's actions
Military operations by PLA warships and aircraft around the Taiwan Strait have become normalized. However, Taiwan experts have discovered that something is wrong from the movements of the PLA warships and planes, and the defense capability of the Taiwan military may be further weakened.
First of all, the number of ships deployed by the PLA in the Taiwan Strait has increased significantly, which has put considerable pressure on the Taiwan region. In 2023, the PLA spent 6% of its time deploying more than 10 warships in the region, but by 2024, that number has almost doubled to 12%. This increase in the deployment of troops has undoubtedly posed a challenge to the Taiwan military's maritime defense.
In the face of such changes, the Taiwan military has no choice but to raise its alert level and frequently dispatch warships to deal with it, and its combat readiness capability is being depleted step by step, and the maintenance plan of the warships is constantly being postponed.
(The number of PLA ships appearing around Taiwan Island is increasing)
This kind of pressure will not only pose a direct military threat to Taiwan, but will also accelerate the aging of Taiwan's military equipment. Taiwan experts believe that the PLA will weaken the combat capability of the other side by dispatching ships at a high frequency, so that it will have more initiative in potential conflicts.
Another noticeable change in the PLA's operations is the increase in the number of helicopter movements in eastern Taiwan. According to statistics, this year, the frequency of PLA helicopters appearing in eastern Taiwan is as high as 90.6%. The reasons behind this phenomenon are inseparable from the United States's military presence in the region.
Some analysts say that once a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the US military will deploy nuclear submarines in the waters east of Taiwan and launch cruise missiles to strike PLA ships. As a result, the PLA's anti-submarine warfare exercises have gradually become the norm as a way to defend against United States potential military intervention.
The importance of Taiwan's eastern waters is not only reflected in its geographical location, but also profoundly affects the direction of possible military conflicts in the future. In the event of war, eastern Taiwan will be a strategic point of great concern to both sides. For the PLA, securing superiority in this area is directly related to the possible future full-scale siege of the island. That is why the PLA has been strengthening its military presence in the region.
(PLA helicopters exercise in waters east of Taiwan)
In addition, the increase in the frequency of PLA ships passing through the Yonaguni Strait is also a noteworthy trend. By late August, PLA ships had crossed the strait 18 times, twice as many as in all of last year. Some argue that this is related to Taiwan's submarine construction program, but a more plausible explanation should be a manifestation of the PLA's gradual advancement of its ocean-going combat capabilities. This increase in operations in the western Pacific may mean that the PLA will need to build a more in-depth strategic defense line.
According to the analysis of Taiwan experts, when the PLA focused its preparations for war on eastern Taiwan, it proved that preparations for the takeover of Taiwan had entered an advanced stage.
The new changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait are inseparable from the actions of the Taiwan authorities
The reason why the situation in the Taiwan Strait has become so tense is not unrelated to the "Taiwan independence" behavior and confrontational attitude of the Taiwan authorities. In recent years, Taiwan has continued to purchase additional US-made weapons in an attempt to achieve so-called "autonomous defense" by strengthening armaments. Such a move is tantamount to challenging the mainland's bottom line and leading to further deterioration of cross-strait relations.
In contrast, the mainland has adopted a more mature and sober strategy, and in addition to military action, the mainland has also adopted legislation and other means to crack down on "Taiwan independence" elements. In addition, the mainland continues to promote cross-strait nongovernmental exchanges and cooperation, hoping to promote cross-strait reunification by peaceful means.
(The Taiwan military has purchased a large amount of weapons and equipment from United States)
It is worth mentioning that the tension in the Taiwan Strait has a lot to do with United States. On the one hand, the United States claims to adhere to the "one-China" principle, and on the other hand, it has increased arms sales to Taiwan, which has accelerated tensions. Such "two-faced" behavior not only poses an obstacle to cross-strait reunification, but may also involve United States in the quagmire of war.
Now it seems that the future of cross-strait relations depends not only on Chinese mainland's strategic choices, but also on how United States handle relations with Chinese mainland. The United States must realize that the Taiwan issue is China's core interest, and repeatedly touching this red line will provoke strong countermeasures from China. Under no circumstances will the PLA give up the great cause of national reunification.
(People's Liberation Army conducting amphibious landing exercises)
In the big game of chess in the Taiwan Strait, all participants must be clear that taking risks will only pay a heavy price. If the "Taiwan independence" elements insist on going their own way, blindly rely on external forces, and seek "independence" by force, they will eventually be unable to escape the fate of annihilation. The purpose of the mainland's overall strategy is not only to suppress the "Taiwan independence" elements militarily, but also to pursue peaceful reunification and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. No matter how the situation evolves in the future, the general trend of cross-strait reunification cannot be stopped by any force.