#精品长文创作季#
On April 7, Yellen's visit to China has entered the fourth day, and after arriving in Guangzhou on the 4th, Mrs. Yellen's simple clothes, ordinary menu, and people-friendly hall dining provoked a meal on domestic social media.
However, netizens are most curious about what Mrs. Yellen is here for, the trip is halfway through, but the old lady seems to be left and right about him, whether it is accusing new energy products of being too cheap or claiming to restrict China's electric vehicles, or shouting slogans for China and the United States not to decouple, it is obviously not Mrs. Yellen's real demand, and the purpose of the trip will not be announced until the last minute?
What is Yellen's visit to China for?
After 9 months, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China again, in the context of complex Sino-US relations, Yellen's visit to China has attracted much attention, and her every move has attracted the attention of global media, especially Yellen's first stop is Guangzhou, and her first meal is Cantonese food, which is especially sought after by netizens on social media.
The first day of the trip on April 4th: Yellen, who walked off the plane alone, had snow-white silver hair, simple clothes, a pair of flat shoes, and carried a bag by herself.
Day 2, April 5: Yellen held a roundtable meeting with economists, after which Guangdong Governor Wang Weizhong met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her entourage in Guangzhou. In the afternoon, Yellen attended an event hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, met with representatives of the U.S. business community in China, and delivered a speech on U.S.-China economic relations, saying that "China's industrial overcapacity poses a risk to the resilience of the global economy."
Day 3 April 6 Itinerary: From the afternoon of the 5th to the morning of the 6th, the leaders of the economic and trade sides of China and the United States, He Lifeng and Yellen, held several rounds of talks in Guangzhou, and the two sides conducted in-depth, candid, pragmatic and constructive exchanges on the macroeconomic situation between the two countries and the world, China-US economic relations and global challenges, and the two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication. On the afternoon of April 6, Yellen's special plane left for Beijing.
Day 4 April 7 Itinerary: On the morning of April 7, the Premier of the State Council met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, and at half past two in the afternoon of April 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen arrived at the National School of Development of Peking University to communicate with students and professors of Peking University.
The author has also searched for official media reports on Yellen's trip, various gossip, and various interpretations on social media, and Yellen's second visit to China has the following demands:
- The first is to ask China to reduce production capacity to avoid so-called damage to the U.S. economy;
- The second is Yellen's statement that China and the United States must not decouple;
- the third is sustainable finance, anti-money laundering cooperation, repatriation of illegal immigrants, etc.;
- the fourth is to ask China to buy U.S. Treasury bonds;
Of course, different media have different interpretations, including Yellen's trip to China, including her intention to negotiate with China to allow the United States to "buy" TikTok, etc., the author thinks this interpretation is not very reliable, so I ignored it directly. Can Yellen's several demands be achieved? The answer is obvious, and the description of "in-depth, candid, pragmatic, and constructive exchanges" in the official press release of the multiple rounds of talks held by Sino-US economic and trade leaders He Lifeng and Yellen in Guangzhou means that each said his own thing, and except that he did not quarrel, he said all the cruel things and demands that should be said.
For example, the first demand, asking China to reduce production capacity, refers to China's new four things, that is, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, lithium batteries and wind power, photovoltaic China accounts for more than 85% of the production capacity, new energy vehicle production capacity accounts for 75% of the world's production capacity, wind power accounts for 60%, lithium batteries account for 60%, Yellen said before her visit to China at the photovoltaic cell factory in Norcross, Georgia, "there is concern that excess capacity is spilling over to the world".
But obviously this is a task that Yellen cannot complete, the WTO is dominated by the United States, and China, which has joined the WTO, acts in accordance with American rules, and even gained an advantage under unfair competition (2012~2013 Europe and the United States launched a double anti-dumping investigation on China's photovoltaics, resulting in a major reshuffle of Chinese photovoltaic companies, but 10 years later, China's photovoltaic market accounted for more than 85% from 30% that year), while the United States violated WTO rules and imposed heavy taxes on China.
And the United States is still in the high-tech field where it still has advantages, and has joined hands with Western countries to impose sanctions on China, trying to curb the development of China's high-tech industry, the advantageous industry to contain China, and the weak industry to demand China's "suicide", Yellen's demand is impossible to complete, China is not the European Union, Japan and South Korea, the United States has these henchmen around every fart, China has long passed the era of saying no, and now even if it is silent, people continue to ask China's attitude.
The second is that Yellen has repeatedly claimed that China and the United States cannot decouple, which is really shameless, because the United States is currently engaged in "Sino-US decoupling", prohibiting China from buying and selling to China, and coercing and inducing the industrial chain back to the United States.
The third is sustainable finance, anti-money laundering cooperation, etc., these are all spectacle words, nonsense, no nutritional value, but the repatriation of illegal immigrants is a bit interesting, after the old witch Pelosi visited Taiwan Province, China terminated the Sino-US cooperation on the repatriation of illegal immigrants, which run to the United States, and was looted on the way from Central America to the United States, as soon as they entered the United States, they tore up their passports, and they couldn't even prove who they were, and they wanted to repatriate?
China cooperates with the repatriation of illegal immigrants, "The Chinese government adheres to the principle of 'verification first, then repatriation' in the repatriation of illegal immigrants, and we will accept the repatriation of Chinese citizens verified from Chinese mainland." ”
This answer is good, verify it first, how can the Americans verify it? Face recognition, fingerprint recognition, other biometric features? This has to be opened to the Chinese customs database, you Americans will come to us after identification, if you can't prove it, let them wash the dishes and contribute to the US GDP!
The fourth requires China to buy treasury bonds, this is already a repeat of the old tune, the United States has entered the interest rate hike cycle for almost two years, 5.5% interest, and so on at the end of this year after the replacement of long-term treasury bonds, the United States has to pay about 1.6 ~ 1.8 trillion US dollars of interest per year, which is more than twice the US military spending, the United States can not hold on, before entering the interest rate cut cycle, the United States urgently needs a pick-up man, take the lead to let the world build confidence in the United States again.
The United States needs China to replicate the 2008 financial crisis, but China is determined not to give the United States a bottom line this time, netizens are very vivid to compare the current showdown between China and the United States to high blood pressure and low blood sugar, the United States hypertension is still taking pressor drugs (policy interest rate hikes, industrial AI to push up stock prices), China has found a new economic growth point, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic cells, wind energy and lithium batteries, etc., have made up for sugar, and now they are waiting for the United States to burst blood vessels.
But the United States, which has high blood pressure, still has a stock advantage, will it be desperate to make a gamble before it explodes? Because China seems to have blocked the back road of the United States, and the United States has only two ways to go, one is to explode and the other is to do it!
These operations are seen as infringing on the core interests of the United States: China has done it all!
Many netizens should still be talking about how the United States rose, World War II destroyed the industrial powers such as Britain, Europe and Japan, where the sun never sets, and the United States, which has not suffered from the war, has become the world's factory, from the wartime system to the post-war large-scale production system, meeting 60% of the world's product demand, so it is difficult for the American economy not to develop.
After the war, the U.S. dollar quickly replaced the British pound to become the world's currency, the U.S. dollar under the Bretton Woods system could be linked to gold at first, and the strong purchasing power made the U.S. dollar a "hard currency", but in 1971, the United States, which had experienced the Vietnam War, could not hold on, coupled with the recovery of manufacturing in Europe and the rise of Japan's manufacturing industry, the Bretton Woods system collapsed, and the U.S. dollar was once again anchored to oil and bulk goods, and still maintained the status of the main settlement currency for international trade.
It was also at this time that Wall Street suddenly discovered that after deconstructing the dollar and gold pegged, the dollar could scrape global wealth through over-issuance of water and tightening liquidity through interest rate hikes, the first test of the water was Central America, through the over-issuance of interest rates into the local investment to prosper the economy, and then through the tightening of liquidity through interest rate hikes to return to the dollar, take away a wave of development dividends, inflation left to the local, Central America became the first victim, and then there were 30 years lost by Japan, the Asian financial crisis, the dollar harvest is invincible, and the world is invincible！
But now this operation is not working, because China has risen from the early 1980s to the present, GDP has skyrocketed by more than 300 times, a huge economy and massive foreign exchange reserves, one is that the United States cannot cut China, and now the United States urgently needs a wave of dollar return to stimulate the American economy, but the return of the dollar in two years is far less than expected; the other is that China's massive foreign exchange reserves can hitchhike and even block the United States harvest, cutting off people's financial routes is like killing people's parents, and the United States can breathe fire in its eyes on China.
China has moved on to America's core interests: it's America's turn to play its cards
Blocking the dollar to harvest the world must have moved the cake of the Americans, because the Americans are too ruthless and actually want to harvest China, and China out of its own development needs, the Belt and Road Initiative and the establishment of China's unique trade system by the way have also improved the economic system of various countries to resist the harvest of the United States, which is the first core interest of the United States.
- 1. The harvesting mechanism in the United States has been broken;
- 2. Take the lead in refusing to buy U.S. bonds;
- 3. Request to convert the US dollars held by the country into gold;
- 4. Public "de-dollarization";
The first one will not be repeated above, the second is the refusal to buy U.S. bonds, China currently has almost 797.7 billion U.S. bonds, this data is still in second place, but China was once the first buyer of U.S. bonds, at the highest time held 1.32 trillion U.S. bonds, the highest record in recent years has reached 1.2 trillion U.S. dollars, but now it has fallen below the 800 billion mark, although China has not clearly stated that it refuses to buy, but China is voting with its feet, small fluctuations will occur in the future, but the long-term trend is to continue to decline.
On January 7, 2024, the official website of the People's Bank of China disclosed the latest data, at the end of December 2023, the mainland's gold reserves were about 2235.41 tons (71.87 million ounces), up about 9.02 tons from the previous month, which is also the 14th consecutive month that the mainland has increased its gold reserves, with a total of about 287.09 tons.
The fourth is "de-dollarization", China has been promoting the internationalization of the RMB, this is already a fact, and it is also a national policy that China will not change, one of the roles of the Belt and Road Initiative is also to promote the internationalization of the RMB, of course, China is not hidden, but there is no official announcement of de-dollarization, after all, the RMB needs the "strong support" of the US dollar before it really becomes the main settlement currency of international trade.
The New York Times reported in mid-2023 that the renminbi has a very special internationalization process, and it is also based on the US dollar, reporting that China's foreign investment with huge dollar reserves exceeds the World Bank's loans to various countries, and China has a very special requirement, requiring loans from some countries to be repaid in RMB, which accelerates the process of internationalization of the RMB while consuming US dollar reserves, and countries also take the initiative to reserve RMB because of the sharp increase in demand for RMB.
Of course, it is still too early for the yuan to replace the dollar, but the United States is really ruthless in dealing with countries that challenge the dollar and the authority of the United States, and the most classic cases are Iraq, Iran and North Korea, which have officially announced de-dollarization, and everyone has seen that Saddam has been hanged by the United States, Iran and North Korea have been sanctioned by the United States N round, and the economy is half-dead and hovering on the verge of collapse. Libya has done the dollar, the euro, and even the establishment of a unified currency for the Middle Eastern countries, so Gaddafi is in ashes.
In fact, there is another case of de-dollarization, which many friends do not know, and this is the euro of the European Union! The United States has taken more measures than you can imagine:
The European Union and the euro were by far the closest currencies to the dollar, but shortly after the creation of the eurozone, wars broke out in the Balkans, followed by the war in Iraq in 2003, the war in Libya, and then the issue of Ukraine. The Russian-Ukrainian war, surrounded by years of war in Europe, refugees and illegal immigrants, energy instability, and unstable investment environment have led to a large amount of capital outflow to the United States, and then there is the direct platform in the Russian-Ukrainian war that has made the Swiss financial industry lose half of its life, suck up Europe to renew the life of the United States, so that the euro will never be able to compete with the dollar, and the operation of killing two birds with one stone has amazed the world, not just a means, but no hesitation and ruthlessness to the allies, which is terrible!
You can see clearly, once you have done one, the United States will be wiped out, or you will never be able to turn over, so what if you finish all four? This is China, which is currently in the second largest position, but the US economy is in a state where high blood pressure is about to explode, but the United States still has a US military! The stock advantage is still on the side of the United States, so does the United States dare to take action against China?
The answer is yes, the United States, which has lost the advantage of the dollar, can do anything, and the next Sino-US struggle will be about art, and what the United States hopes most is that China can fight with whoever it will fight first, so the United States continues to make trouble around China! Of course, China also hopes that the United States can do it the most, and China cannot find trouble with the United States, but Israel, the emperor of the United States, is looking for trouble for the United States, and on April 1, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria and stabbed a hornet's nest!
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeenei has warned that Israel's reckless actions will be "slapped in the face", and now Israel is panicking, has ordered the evacuation of 7 Israeli embassies in the Middle East, and has withdrawn the main force from the Gaza Strip to deal with Iran's possible surprise attack on Israel itself, so the fatal choice of the United States is coming, Israel itself is attacked, whether the United States will save it or not?
A while ago, the US media was already promoting that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is almost a "dictator", cutting Israel from Nethi, because the drones of the United States "resisting" the Houthis in the Red Sea are about to be unable to hold on, and the airdrop and the establishment of a dock in the Gaza Strip are to set up a persona, but now Israel itself may be attacked by Iran, which seems to have little to do with whether Neh's is a "dictator", so the United States must be saved!
Of course, there is no problem if this Iran is instigated, and China still has a follow-up move, that is, to slowly boil up the snake with hypocrisy and grievances, and to boil the United States to death in 50 hours! China's current situation is good, and high technology has gradually broken through under the blockade of the United States, and the chip industry has gone through the stage of whether it is good or not, and it has been improved in the stage of whether it is good or not; the manufacturing industry has always been the world's only show, and the initiative lies with me, but we will never talk about war lightly.