The expectation of interest rate cuts has been rekindled, and copper and gold prices continue to rise!

The interface has Lianyun

2024-04-08 11:08Published in Shanghai

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is about to begin, and the weak expectations of the US dollar have stimulated the "financial attributes" of non-ferrous metals, and supply-constrained resources such as gold and copper have ushered in a bull market. The mainland's manufacturing PMI rebounded more than expected in March, verifying that the economy is stable and improving, and the demand side is expected to heat up, and with the performance disclosure period in April, some cyclical products in the bottom range of the business cycle or the upward range of the cycle have attracted market attention, promoting the overall upward trend of the non-ferrous sector.

As of the close of trading on April 3, 2024, the non-ferrous sector topped the list of major theme sectors of the big A with an increase of 3.28%, and the non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closed up 3.43% on the same day, with a cumulative increase of 32.11% since February, with a strong performance!

Data source: Wind, data as of April 3, 2024, industry classification is CITIC Level 1 classification. The above industries are for reference only and do not constitute actual investment advice.

Today, let's take a look at what has happened to the non-ferrous sector recently, and why it is so strong!

First of all, what are the non-ferrous sectors that we are optimistic about?

Source: Wind

Then, let's sort out the supply and demand relationship of non-ferrous metals together

After all, the price of commodities, even if there is only a 1% supply gap, can increase by 50%!

Source: Guotai Junan Futures

Non-ferrous metals have risen sharply! Break it down, which types are making efforts

1. First of all, let's sort out the logic of the recent hot copper

News: Since the beginning of this year, the spot processing fee of imported copper concentrate has been running at a low level, and the processing fee of imported copper ore has fallen from 90 US dollars / ton to 10 US dollars / ton, and the rapid decline of copper concentrate processing fee has led to significant losses of smelters. Affected by this, the expectation of joint production cuts by domestic smelters has increased, and it is expected that the supply shortage will gradually emerge in the second quarter.

Source: Wind

In Q1 2024, copper prices fluctuated higher

资料来源:Wind,LME,Debang Research Institute

2. Triple attribute resonance, gold is still in a big cycle of rise

Source: Wind

Gold prices are still in an upward cycle

Data source: Guojin Securities Research Institute

Finally, let's summarize the logic of the non-ferrous plate

1. The expectation of interest rate cuts has been rekindled, pushing up copper and gold prices

On the one hand, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, may start a continuous rise. On the other hand, in addition to the impact of interest rate cuts, copper prices continued to rise in March as domestic smelters cut production and China's consumer goods trade-in policy was expected to be stimulated, and the supply and demand continued to be imbalanced.

2. The inflection point of the cycle, the layout window is coming

In the medium and long term, the three-year inventory cycle of non-ferrous metals has gradually entered the stage of replenishment, and the price increase may become a future trend. At the same time, increasing gold reserves has become the main choice of central banks, and central banks of major economies have maintained a positive attitude towards gold.

3. The adjustment is sufficient, and the valuation may be cost-effective

The non-ferrous metal sector has been fully adjusted since 2021, and the CNI nonferrous metals index has a quantile of 18.85% in the past 10 years, which is at a historically low level, and the valuation is cost-effective. At the same time, the non-ferrous metals industry accounts for a large proportion of China's central enterprises, benefiting from the market value management policy of central state-owned enterprises, which is expected to attract a rapid repair of the market.

The current valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector is very cost-effective

Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund (159880) The valuation of the CNI non-ferrous metals industry index tracked by the CNI non-ferrous metals industry index is at a historical low, and the latest price-to-book ratio is 2.36 times, which is lower than the index of more than 68.23% in the past three years, and the valuation is cost-effective.

Source: Wind

Non-ferrous ETF Fund (159880)

Closely tracking the CNI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, the CNI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index refers to the CNI Industry Classification Standards, selects 50 securities with outstanding scale and liquidity belonging to the non-ferrous metals industry as samples, reflects the overall income performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen North Stock Exchanges, and provides the market with indexed investment targets for subdivided industries.

Non-ferrous ETF Fund (159880): One-click allocation of major base metals, energy metals, precious metals and other related key listed companies.

Funds are risky, so be cautious when investing!

The above content and data have nothing to do with the position of the interface and do not constitute investment advice. Do so at your own risk.

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