During the four-day holiday, it was already a mess outside, and the vast majority of people couldn't understand it at all, and to be honest, I was also confused.
The non-farm payrolls data released on Friday beat expectations: non-farm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March versus 200,000 expected, unemployment rate was 3.8% versus 3.9% expected, and labor force participation rate was 62.7% versus 62.5% expected.
To put it simply: the U.S. job market is very strong, the economy shows no signs of recession at all, and the dollar is in doubt about cutting interest rates this year.
It stands to reason that U.S. stocks and gold commodities should fall and U.S. bond yields rise, but the reality is: 10Y U.S. Treasury yields did rise, jumping 0.49% again, but gold, silver and crude oil rose sharply across the board, and the price of U.S. cocoa beans rose by 5%, and in only 4 months this year, the increase exceeded 130%!
The probability of a rate cut in June has fallen to 46.1%, and the market had high expectations for a rate cut in July, but the U.S. bond swap market shows that it is likely that the rate cut will start in September.
Hawkish rhetoric, a strong dollar, and the divergence between fiat currency and commodity prices are incomprehensible to many people, so they question the falsification of US data.
In particular, the number of non-farm payrolls and the number of initial jobless claims both exceeded expectations by a large margin, and the US stock and US Treasury yields rose in the same direction.
In fact, the employment data released by the Ministry of Labor is the result of sampling statistics: the number of employees reported by the enterprise is divided by a coefficient, for example, the enterprise reports 100,000 employees, divided by 0.33, which is 303,000.
But this result is very inaccurate, because there are a large number of part-time and temporary jobs, that is, one person working 2 or even 3 jobs at the same time.
As of February 24, there were 133 million full-time workers and 29.7 million part-time jobs in the United States, a year-on-year decrease of 300,000 full-time workers, digesting the reduced part + new jobs, which is equivalent to 921,000 people taking up one more job.
Therefore, the non-farm payrolls data in the United States are often revised sharply downward, and the recent report released by the Philadelphia Fed shows that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in 23 years was overestimated by 800,000, and from March to June 22 years ago, the non-farm payrolls data was overestimated by 1.1 million!
In fact, every time the Department of Labor counts non-farm payrolls, it also counts another piece of data: household employment data, which follows people rather than companies. In March 24, the number of household employment was about 500,000, which also includes self-employed and flexible workers, and the non-agricultural sector cannot be counted at all, but it has been declining since the beginning of this year, and the exposure to the non-agricultural sector is getting bigger and bigger.
There is another point: the average weekly working hours of non-farm employment is 34.4 hours, and the average day is only 6.88 hours, which is significantly lower than the reasonable working hours, because the proportion of casual and part-time jobs is too high, and there are not so many full-time jobs.
So it's more real to look at the number of initial jobless claims: in the last week of March, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 221,000, and the expected number was 214,000.
Bottom line: The Labor Department's data is distorted, and all the new jobs are part-time, which does not mean that the number of employed people increases, but the job market in the United States is indeed strong.
You can also understand that inflation is too high, many people have to work more jobs to make ends meet, and the boom in the service sector masks the problems of manufacturing and big business.
Of course, there is another possibility: the soaring commodities are not profit-driven at all! The world's major countries are really buying gold, crude oil, sugar, cocoa beans, and rubber, and they are not betting on the call options after the US dollar interest rate cut, but they really want to get those commodities and prepare for S3.
Assi, peace~
If you look at it this way, inflation is really hard to suppress. Don't think about this year's interest rate cut, gold and crude oil have gone to the sky, the medicine has not been obtained, and the big blood bag has not been cut, and then the blood vessels will explode directly, lower expectations, but there may be surprises.
……
1. The per capita consumption of domestic tourism has finally exceeded the level of 19 years, which is not easy.
In the 3 days of Qingming Festival this year, the per capita consumption was 151 yuan, and according to the comparable caliber, it was 149.4 yuan in 19 years, a year-on-year increase of +1.08%.
This is the first consumption data since 2020 to achieve a full recovery, and this year's Spring Festival, the per capita tourism consumption recovery rate is only 76%, and the New Year's Day is 96%.
Don't underestimate this 1.08%, it shows that everyone's demand for prevention has begun to change to consumer demand, and confidence has rebounded, and the speed is much faster than expected, which is definitely a good phenomenon.
2. Coconut milk visited China for the second time in a year, and I don't know what the talks have come about, but she also talked about China's export "new three things" and workers' wages, in fact, she wants us to also have inflation and high blood pressure, and then use our medicine (dollar reserves) to solve their family's high blood pressure (US debt), so that everyone will faint together, no one dares to move, and think beautiful~
I said on Wednesday: There is no solution to the current situation, we can only compete for internal strength, see who can't hold on and lie down first, strategic determination is not in vain, let's boil slowly.
3. In order to win the parliamentary election, South Korea's two major political parties encourage people to speculate on coins.
Yoon's People's Power Party has pledged to postpone the introduction of a digital asset tax, while the Democratic Party has been more aggressive, promising to remove restrictions on the direct holding of virtual currency ETFs.
In the first half of last year, 6 million people participated in virtual currency trading, accounting for 12% of the country's total population, and about 7% of the candidates for parliament themselves speculated in coins.
4. Huawei will hold a Hongmeng spring communication meeting on April 11 to release intelligent driving and PC products, but there is no mention of P70, let's see if there will be any surprises.
Tomorrow's A-share opening, it is estimated that the index is still a pattern of micro-shock stock differentiation, no need to be too entangled, the current situation no one can understand, there is no special risk for the time being, remain calm.
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