Hello family!
The happy holiday has passed, 3 days of the holiday, the Dow Jones index -0.68%, the NASDAQ +0.05%, the S&P -0.03%, and the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index -0.01%, basically neither up nor down.
But the peripheral market is a little confusing.
First, the periphery is chaotic
The non-farm payrolls data released by the United States on Friday exceeded expectations: non-farm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March versus 200,000 expected, the unemployment rate was 3.8% versus 3.9% expected, and the labor force participation rate was 62.7% versus 62.5% expected.
The monetary policy of the United States mainly depends on inflation and employment data, and the job market is so good, so the expectation of interest rate cuts will also fall.
It is normal for Treasury yields to rise while US stocks, gold, and commodities fall.
But a miracle happened, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is higher, but gold, silver, crude oil and other commodities are also rising across the board, and U.S. stocks also rose 1% on Friday!
This chaotic trend is not limited to today, but has been going on for months.
Historically, the strength of the dollar, the strength of gold, the rise in oil prices, the surge in digital currencies, and the rise of U.S. stocks have almost never happened at the same time. Economists are at a loss, what is going on? Could it be that our housing prices and big A have become blood bags?
In March 20, when the U.S. stock market continued to fall to the limit, Warren Buffett, who was in his 90s, shouted out that he would see you for a long time, and now, it is another time to see you for a long time, and our generation is really witnessing history forever...
In fact, when it comes to the US employment data alone, its statistical methods have long made people unable to complain.
The percentage of the U.S. population with two or more jobs has increased from 4% before the pandemic to 27%. In order to maintain a normal life, more and more Americans need to work another job to supplement their income.
And if one person takes a second job, even if it's the same person, it will create one new job for the United States.
The statistical method remains the same.
But before the pandemic, the vast majority of Americans were able to support their families as long as they had a stable job. However, a significant percentage of Americans now need to work multiple jobs at the same time in order to make a normal living.
However, the statistical method has not been adjusted, in other words, if we insist on counting one person and one employment, the actual employment situation in the United States is far worse than before the epidemic.
However, with Biden here, does the U.S. Department of Labor dare to change its statistical methodology?
Everything should be aligned with the right game of chess.
Therefore, the non-farm payrolls data in the United States are often revised sharply downward, and the recent report released by the Philadelphia Fed shows that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in 23 years was overestimated by 800,000, and from March to June 22 years ago, the non-farm payrolls data was overestimated by 1.1 million!
Fed's Logan said it was too early to talk about a rate cut. I laughed when I saw this, it's really a hawk blowing to death, don't pretend, there is a high probability that interest rates will be cut this year, and there is a great possibility of a drop in June.
Now Lao Mei is also in a dilemma. If interest rates are cut, dollars will flow out, and the prices of imported products will be higher, how will inflation come down? If they don't cut interest rates, their foreign debt interest is high, and they are still short of money, and they need to break through the debt ceiling so that the federal government can function normally.
So Yellen is here, to talk about, what to talk about, is it really a superficial talk about new energy, I'm afraid not. Many of the repressive measures mentioned on the lips are bargaining chips with us.
Lao Mei's dilemma is currently unsolvable.
2. Other important news
1. During the three-day holiday, 119 million domestic tourists traveled, +11.5% compared with the same period in 2019, and domestic tourists spent 53.95 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019. The per capita consumption was 151 yuan, which was 149.4 yuan in 19 years on a comparable basis, a year-on-year increase of +1.08%.
+1.08% is not much, but the significance is very huge, this is the first time since 2020 to achieve an increase in per capita tourism consumption, this year's Spring Festival per capita tourism consumption is only 76% of 2019, New Year's Day is 96%.
This shows that consumer confidence is continuing to recover.
The March PMI data, consumer confidence data, and Qingming per capita consumption data all continued to pick up.
There is a high probability that the economy has bottomed out.
Moreover, the tourism data of Qingming is very good, and the tourism data of May Day, summer vacation, and November should not be bad.
It is said that the B&Bs and the like on May Day have gone crazy, many of them are booked out, and the chain hotels in third-tier cities have actually asked for more than 1,000.
After all, in essence, high housing prices are actually a disguised tax, with the real estate market sluggish, this indirect tax continues to shrink, and the positive significance of consumption is slowly revealed.
Family, let's wait and see, the prosperity of leisure service consumption is not just a post-epidemic revenge consumption, but a long-term trend, which I predicted last year, and we can witness it together.
Holiday gold hit a new high, and leisure service consumption was hot, which sparked heated discussions. The difference is that gold is at a high level, and leisure consumption as a whole is at a low level, and I think that the low leisure consumption is definitely more worth seeing.
Mainly tourism and hotel companies, you can pay more attention.
In February and March, the issuance of Celgene returned to 100 billion yuan, mainly bond base and ETF, and the reputation of active equity funds went bankrupt. In fact, the choice of the people is right, the active base fee is high, but it is difficult to outperform the index, and it is obviously much more cost-effective to buy ETFs or bond bases with much lower fees.
The strong sales of Celgene also show that with the continuous improvement of economic recovery expectations, the recovery of corporate profitability, the improvement of investor confidence, and the attractiveness of A-share valuation, fund issuance is expected to further recover.
Over-the-counter funds are finally going to start entering the sedan chair in a big way!
Family, you've all waited too long, haven't you?
3. Sany Heavy Industry canceled the overseas application for GDR, and it can be seen that the work of the new village chief is still very effective, and it is hoped that the new village chief will withstand the pressure and make persistent efforts to improve the corporate governance of mourning shares.
PS: The so-called overseas issuance
GDR is a leek cutting routine that issues shares at a low price overseas and sells them after being transferred to China.
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Not much else, the next most important thing is the CPI data to be released on Thursday on April 11, and I am inclined to think that the CPI data will hopefully continue the recent positive momentum.
If this is the case, macro pro-cyclical consumption, medicine, Internet, semiconductor, nonferrous metals, chemical and other industries can be taken seriously.
Except for some colored varieties, most of the others are in a low position, and the upward space and potential are still relatively large.
Family, on the new journey, I hope that from now on, you can move forward and come back to blood!
Give a thumbs up, I wish you April and be treated gently by the market~