On April 7, 2024, Japan, the United States, the Philippines and Australia will hold a joint military exercise in the disputed area of the South China Sea. The Philippines will send two patrol boats to participate in the exercise, Japan will send a destroyer, the United States will send a littoral combat ship, and Australia will also send a frigate, and at the same time, Australia will also send a military aircraft to participate in the exercise. Although the Philippines and the United States did not say who they wanted to target in this naval exercise, because the location of the exercise was in the disputed area of the South China Sea, a discerning person could see at a glance that it was aimed at China.
In fact, how to view the four-nation joint military exercise is also a question worth discussing, and on the whole, the exercise is more of a political performance, and the reason for this judgment is also based on many reasons.
First, the military exercises are mainly for political purposes, after all, US President Joe Biden is about to hold a trilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Of course, the intention of the United States in holding the trilateral meeting is obvious, that is, it hopes to take advantage of the close relations between the United States and Japan, the United States and the Philippines, and the Philippines and Japan to twist the forces of the three countries into a single rope and allow the forces of the United States and Japan to smoothly enter Philippine waters, so as to support and boost the Philippines. Therefore, in order for the trilateral meeting to further demonstrate its momentum, the relevant countries must show their swords to China in the disputed areas of the South China Sea, and only then can they be worthy of the current hegemony of the United States. It can also be judged that the so-called four-nation joint military exercise is more of a political performance, and the military and political interaction between the relevant countries actually highlights that the United States is still confident in forming a deterrent force against China in the direction of the South China Sea.
Second, the reason why the joint military exercise is considered to be more of a political show and not of substantive significance is because, according to media reports from the United States, Japan, and the Philippines, the five warships participating in the exercise are not strong in combat effectiveness. A closer look reveals that Japan sent a destroyer, Australia sent a frigate, the Philippines sent two patrol ships, and the United States sent a littoral combat ship that it once saw as capable of suppressing China, but now it is a warship that the US Navy is ready to abandon. It can be seen from this that none of the five warships participating in the exercise can handle it, and in the South China Sea, which has been tightly controlled by China, if one thinks that these five warships have made big moves and pose a threat to China's nuclear forces, they can only deceive themselves and others.
Therefore, the five warships dispatched by the four countries can know that these five warships are not able to set off a storm at all, and the so-called military exercises in the South China Sea are more of a political show and military training. If this exercise is really effective, it is more about supporting and encouraging the Philippines, so as to tell the Filipino people that as long as they support President Marcos Jr., they will definitely be able to gain friendship from the United States, Japan, and Australia, and that the Philippines is not fighting alone. In the final analysis, the game and contention between major powers in the South China Sea is still based on the strength of both sides, and the Philippines, the United States, and Australia are really beyond their strength in this regard.
Third, the so-called joint military exercises of the four navies have been very hot, and the atmosphere has been exaggerated all over the world, but when facing China, the relevant countries still have a sense of proportion.
First, in terms of the number of troops it has dispatched, the United States has not sent an aircraft carrier fleet to take charge as it has in the past, and now the United States is very cautious in the South China Sea, and when China is ready for battle, it will generally not send its own aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines to prepare for war. The United States understands very well that once US warships and submarines enter the South China Sea, they will inevitably be subject to China's strict prevention and control, and at this time, the United States is actually in a very passive state, and in order to avoid its own gray state, the United States can only send a littoral combat ship, which itself has already revealed its own bottom, that is, the United States will not sincerely help the Philippines.
Second, although the United States, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia have conducted the so-called four-nation joint naval exercise, they do not dare to talk about China at all in terms of public opinion and goals. In the face of China, which is waiting for the battle, this can only be wishful thinking, and it is impossible to get China to cede its rights and interests in the South China Sea.
Third, the United States has maintained a certain limit in the joint military exercise led by itself, and the United States is well aware that since China promulgated the actual combat line in the South China Sea last year, China has made its bottom line and attitude clear. No matter how the United States and other countries outside the region want to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, if they really dare to go to war with China in the South China Sea, China will definitely start a life-and-death game with the United States, and then the main battlefield will not be the South China Sea at all, but an all-out war between the two countries. Over the years, China has made the United States understand this truth through its confrontations with the United States in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the East China Sea, and if the United States wants to limit the war to a certain direction or a certain region, China will absolutely not allow it. If there is a conflict between China and the United States, there will be only one result, that is, a full-scale war between China and the United States, and at that time, the US mainland will also become the main battlefield of China's war, and the United States is clear about China's bottom line, so the United States is unwilling to provoke China when the wind is high and the waves are urgent. After all, the Philippines is just a second-class player, and it can't be on the table of the great power game at all, and can only be on the menu of the two game tables between China and the United States. On the South China Sea issue, China's policy is very clear: if the United States dares to take it personally, it will be when China and the United States completely tear their faces, and it will depend on whether the United States dares to bear the wrath of China.