Recently, small and medium-sized banks in Henan, Shaanxi, Yunnan and other places have intensively announced the reduction of the execution interest rate of time deposits, which has attracted market attention.
"The 3-year deposit rate was cut by 10 basis points to 2.75%. "The deposit product with an interest rate of 3% still has a quota in the morning, and it is sold out at noon. ”
On April 7, a reporter from Dahe Finance Cube visited a number of banks in Zhengzhou and learned that some banks have recently lowered the interest rate on time deposits, and the interest rate on large certificates of deposit has continued to fall.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from Dahe Finance Cube that the recent reduction of deposit interest rates by small and medium-sized banks is the third round of follow-up reductions by large banks last year.
A number of small and medium-sized banks have cut interest rates intensively
Since the end of March, a number of small and medium-sized banks have lowered their deposit interest rates, ranging from 5 basis points to 40 basis points, and the deposit interest rates of many banks with a maturity of one year or less have fallen below 2%.
Taking Henan as an example, Miyang Rural Commercial Bank lowered the interest rates on 3-month, 6-month, 1-year and 2-year fixed deposits from 1.50%, 1.70%, 2.10% and 2.35% to 1.40%, 1.65%, 1.80% and 2.00%. Xinmi Rural Commercial Bank lowered the interest rates of 2-month, 6-month, 1-year and 2-year fixed deposits from 1.60%, 1.80%, 2.15% and 2.40% to 1.40%, 1.65%, 1.80% and 2.00%.
Not only rural commercial banks, but also some joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks are also slightly reducing deposit interest rates according to their own operating conditions.
"The interest rate of our bank's 3-year deposit products has been reduced from 2.85% to 2.75%, with a minimum deposit of 10,000 yuan. A customer manager of a branch of Bank of Zhengzhou told reporters that the interest rate of other deposit products of the bank has not been adjusted for the time being, but there is a high probability that it will continue to be lowered in the future.
According to the account manager of a branch of Everbright Bank, the bank lowered the interest rate of some deposit products in mid-to-late March, including the interest rate of 3-year and 5-year deposit products, which was reduced from 2.6% to 2.58%, with a minimum deposit of 50,000 yuan.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian and part-time researcher of the Institute of Financial Research of Fudan University, said that lowering deposit interest rates and reducing debt costs have become a common choice for commercial banks. Due to different factors such as market competition, customer positioning, and liability structure, different banks have different rhythms and magnitudes of adjusting deposit interest rates.
It is worth mentioning that among the rural commercial banks whose deposit interest rates have been lowered this time, Suiping Rural Commercial Bank and Shenqiu Rural Commercial Bank have narrowed the gap between the deposit interest rates of 3 years and 5 years. Suiping Rural Commercial Bank lowered the three-year deposit rate from 2.65% to 2.35%, and the five-year deposit rate remained unchanged at 2.40%. The interest rates of 5-year and 3-year fixed deposits of Shenqiu Rural Commercial Bank were 2.4% and 2.65% before the adjustment, and 2.4% and 2.35% after the adjustment.
"The medium and long-term deposit interest rates of some small and medium-sized banks are flat or even 'inverted' for many reasons. Market interest rates are in a downward cycle as a whole, and banks have an incentive to reduce the cost of comprehensive liabilities by adjusting the maturity premium of deposits. Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, analyzed that banks prefer relatively short-term deposit liabilities, and reduce long-term deposit interest expenses by optimizing the liability structure. In addition, the adjustment of deposit rates also reflects the bank's judgment on future liquidity and the differentiation of business development strategies.
The "tightening" of the quota for large certificates of deposit and the lowering of interest rates
Under the tide of interest rate cuts, the interest rate advantage of large-amount certificate of deposit products, which were originally favored by depositors, was not as good as that of the same period last year, and banks gradually "tightened" the quota.
"The deposit product with an interest rate of 3% still has a quota in the morning, and it is sold out at noon. Early in the morning of April 7, the account manager of a branch of Bank of Zhengzhou forwarded the poster of the bank's new customers and new funds regular products in the circle of friends. The minimum deposit of this product is 50,000 yuan, and the interest rate is 3%. When the reporter inquired at noon, he was told that this product had been sold out and rolled off the production line.
The account manager of a branch of Zhongyuan Bank said that the bank's 2-year and 3-year large-value certificates of deposit have long been gone, and there are still one-year large-amount certificates of deposit products with an interest rate of 2.05%. If you have a long-term deposit demand, you can consider the bank's deposit-type insurance, which matures in 7 years and has an interest rate of up to 3%.
"At present, the quota of large-value certificates of deposit is issued irregularly, and the five-year large-value certificates of deposit have long been sold out. The account manager of a branch of Minsheng Bank told reporters that the bank's 3-year large-amount certificates of deposit with a minimum deposit of 200,000 still have some quotas, with an interest rate of 2.6%.
Bank of China and China Construction Bank are also squeezing large certificates of deposit. During the consultation, the reporter was told that the quota of large-amount certificates of deposit was sold out, and there was no specific time for issuance, and if you wanted to buy, you need to communicate with the account manager in advance.
The reporter noted that in the same period of 2023, the interest rate on large certificates of deposit of various banks will basically be above 3%, and some banks will even reach more than 4%. Due to the high security and good returns of this type of product, it is particularly favored by stable depositors in the context of the continuous reduction of time deposit interest rates, and is often sold out soon after being put on the shelves. However, since the beginning of this year, the large-denomination certificates of deposit of various banks have not recovered from last year's prosperity.
According to the analysis of industry insiders, at present, banks are facing challenges such as increasing operating pressure and intensified competition in the same industry, and deposit products with high interest rates will increase the cost of liabilities of banks, squeeze bank profit margins, and adjust deposit products with high interest rates such as large certificates of deposit, which will help ease the pressure on interest margins.
"In the case of the continuous decline in the yield of various asset management products and deposit interest rates, investors should adjust their investment mentality as soon as possible and reduce their expectations of investment returns. Dong Ximiao said.
Experts: There is still room for deposit rates to be lowered
Behind the continuous reduction of deposit product interest rates, the problem of increasing pressure on bank interest rate spreads has been highlighted.
As of the end of 2023, the net interest margin of mainland commercial banks fell to 1.69%, falling below the 1.7% mark for the first time. Judging from the 2023 financial reports of various listed banks, the net interest margin has generally declined, and the net interest margin of the six major banks has fallen by between 16 and 31 basis points.
Dong Ximiao said that the main reason for the decline in net interest margin is that banks have increased their efforts to reduce fees and concessions to the real economy. The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has fallen several times, and although the deposit rate has also continued to fall, the decline has been lower than the decline in the lending rate, so the interest rate spread has fallen. In addition, the adjustment of the interest rate of the existing first home loan has a great impact on the net interest margin of large commercial banks, while the downward pressure on the interest margin of urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks has also increased due to the impact of local debt and other problems.
Will bank deposit rates be cut further?
Bai Wenxi believes that the current trend of continuous decline in deposit interest rates is expected to continue. Under the "precise and powerful" monetary policy tone, the monetary policy will maintain a steady and loose pattern in 2024, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. In this context, the listed interest rate of deposits may continue to fall, and the rigidity of deposit costs still exists. In addition, under the recovery of economic growth, the interest rate center of the long-end bond market is expected to move up slightly, but the peak of interest rate hikes may be raised, and the interest rate on domestic US dollar deposits and loans still has room to rise. Therefore, it is foreseeable that there is still room for the deposit rate to be lowered in the coming period.
"It is expected that the downward adjustment will be significantly narrower, and may not even be reduced. In the future, with the steady recovery of the economy, the improvement of operating conditions, and the further strengthening of the demand for physical financing, the net interest margin and market interest rate of banks will remain stable, and the supply and demand of the deposit market will gradually return to normal. Zhou Maohua also mentioned that if the economic recovery is less than expected, the central bank will guide the market interest rate center to move further downward, coupled with the pressure on the bank's net interest margin, it is not ruled out that the deposit rate may still be moderately lowered, expanding space for financial support for the real economy, which is also an inherent requirement to enhance the risk compensation ability of the financial system and maintain the stable and sustainable operation of the financial system.
In addition to lowering deposit rates, what other ways can banks alleviate the pressure of narrowing net interest margins?
"Banks can improve the overall asset yield by optimizing the credit structure, increasing the yield on loans, and reducing the proportion of non-performing loans. In addition, intermediary businesses, such as fee and commission income, investment income, etc., can be developed to diversify income sources and reduce dependence on interest income. Bai Wenxi suggested that banks can consider capital market operations, such as the issuance of preferred shares and subordinated debt, to enhance capital strength and improve capital adequacy ratio to support the sustainable development of business.
见习编辑:李文玉 | 审校:陈筱娟 | 审核:李震 | 监审:万军伟