On April 1, an airstrike hit the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria
On April 1, Israel blew up the Iranian consulate in Syria, killing General Mohammed Reza Zahedi, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Expeditionary Force Quds Quds. This is the highest-ranking Iranian military commander to be assassinated since the U.S. targeted Soleimani in 2020.
The bombing of consulates is equivalent to bombing Iranian territory, and Israel's wave of horse-faced export has given Iran a big test.
On April 2, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Iran was likely to respond directly, rather than through a proxy. "The evil regime will be punished by our brave warriors. ”
To a large extent, this is an empty phrase. Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza on October 7 last year, Israel has intensified its crackdown on senior generals of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. So far, Iran's response has been largely limited to fiery diplomatic rhetoric, with little translation of its threats into action.
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Israel has been fighting on two fronts: against Hamas in Gaza, and against a range of Iranian-backed proxies throughout the Middle East, including militias in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
The most powerful of these militias is Allah in Lebanon, which bombards towns and troops in northern Israel on an almost daily basis. Israel is gradually expanding its attacks on Allah in Lebanon. Prior to last month, Israeli bombardment of Lebanon had been largely confined to the south, and in recent weeks has further struck the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.
Israel's attack on Syria is also looming. After a decade of civil war, Syria has been left defenseless, and Iranian-backed Syrian militias do not have the same arsenal as Allah Lebanon.
Since October 7 last year, Israel has launched dozens of attacks on Syria, eliminating most of Iran's top leadership in the country. On Christmas Day, Israel killed an Iranian general in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and in mid-January, Israel killed five more officers, including Iran's intelligence chief in Syria. On 29 March, Israel launched a terrorist attack on Aleppo airport, killing 36 Syrian soldiers.
Until April 1, Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria, killing seven senior Iranian officials.
Iran's toughest response to date was in 2020. After Soleimani, Iran's "chief architect of the proxy war" at the time, was targeted by the United States, Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at US military bases in Iraq. It was Iran's largest attack on a U.S. military base in decades, but it didn't reach the level of gunpowder that hardliners demand. Faced with greater domestic pressure this time, Iran may have several options.
Launch a direct attack on the United States
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian believes that "the United States must be held accountable for this." ”
In the early hours of April 2, Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the Chargé d'affaires a.i. of the Swiss Embassy to emphasize the responsibility of the United States in the attack. Since the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Iran, the U.S. Interests Representative Office in Iran is located at the Swiss Embassy in Iran.
"Iranians believe that the United States is responsible for what Israel has done, just as the United States believes that Iran is responsible for what Iraqi militias have done," Tritta Passy, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute of National Affairs in Washington, D.C., told CNN.
Iran has already engaged in several low-level conflicts with the United States through proxies. In retaliation, three U.S. service members were killed in Jordan in retaliation by the U.S. bombing at least seven sites in Iraq and Syria.
If Iran were to attack the United States in retaliation against Israel, it would give Israel impunity and would also draw Iran and the United States into direct confrontation. Analysts say neither the United States nor Iran wants to see such a situation.
The U.S. side also tried to distance itself from the attack. A spokesman for the US National Security Council said that the Biden administration was not involved in this and did not know in advance, and that the United States had already conveyed this to Iran.
Mobilize proxies against Israel
Iran's most capable proxy to fight Israel is Allah in Lebanon. The militia is located near Israeli territory, has some 150,000 rockets and precision-guided munitions, and has proven capable of penetrating deep into Israel's heartland.
Israel has been preparing for war with Allah for months and has now evacuated more than 40 communities in the north. The two sides have been engaged in skirmishes, but the clashes have been limited to a few kilometers on both sides of the border line.
Allah said Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate would be "punished and retaliated," but experts were skeptical about its willingness to wage a devastating war with Israel because the Lebanese did not want to involve their country in the war.
Iran can also mobilize other proxies in the region, though they are too far away to do only so much harm to Israel. Yemen's Houthis have disrupted Israel's trade with the world through the Red Sea and have tried to fire missiles at Israel, but failed. Iraqi militias, which are closer to Israeli territory than the Houthis, have also tried to attack Israel several times, mostly in vain.
Sanam Wakir, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iran could use its proxies as well as diplomatic efforts to isolate Israel, but it was unlikely to escalate the war significantly.
"The entire axis of resistance (the anti-Western coalition of Iran, Syria, Lebanese Allah parties, etc.) will be activated...... They are unlikely to retaliate with a massive attack, but with a flurry of reactions. ”
Attacks on Israeli missions abroad
In anticipation of Iran's retaliation against its foreign offices, Israel has stepped up security measures at its consulates in anticipation of Iran's retaliation against its foreign offices.
Israel has repeatedly accused Iran of trying to target its foreign institutions in retaliation for "alleged Israeli killings of Iranian scientists and officials and attacks on its nuclear facilities."
In 1992, a bomb landed at the Israeli embassy in Argentina, killing 29 people, which Israel blamed on Iran and Allah in Lebanon. In 2012, Israeli diplomats were assassinated in India, Georgia and Thailand, and Israel again accused Iran of orchestrating these operations.
Iranian Congressman Jalal Rushdi Kochi suggested on social platforms that Iran should retaliate by attacking the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan.
No direct military attacks
Analysts say Iran may be forced to act given the escalating nature of the attack on the Iranian consulate. But he warned that Iran may be falling into Israel's trap. At a time when Israel is becoming increasingly isolated on the world stage because of the war in Gaza, the outbreak of a wider war between Iran and Israel will only draw Western countries to Israel's side.
"Now the ball is on Iran's pitch," Wali Nasr, a Middle East scholar and former adviser to the U.S. State Department, wrote on social media. "Israel has issued a provocation and is waiting for Iran to respond. Iran may wait for the right moment to prevent Israel's war from spreading from Gaza to Syria and Iran. ”
Chatham House's Wakir said Iran was unlikely to respond with a direct military attack. Instead, it could capitalize on the momentum of the international community's condemnation of the war in Gaza, stir up fears of a wider war, and further isolate Israel.
"I think Iran will play multiple cards at the same time," she said, including cyberattacks, low-level military confrontations through proxies and diplomatic offensives.
According to the Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency, Iran has requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to unequivocally condemn violations of international law.
However, not taking direct military action could pose significant risks to Iran. Once the military objectives in Gaza are accomplished, Israel will be free to dismantle the Axis of Resistance one by one, which could seriously affect Iran's influence in the Middle East.
Israel is playing a game of adventure with Iran, which is too nervous about an extended war to retaliate. So far, Israel seems to have been right, but past performance is no guarantee of future results: if Israel pushes too hard, the Middle East could descend into an even more chaotic conflict.