Text: Tianfeng
Source: Fortune Unicorn
Recently, Zheng Weishan, manager of Galaxy Fund, released a research report, saying that AI, as an important driving force for a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, has attracted widespread attention from investors. The AI sector involves many links, including not only downstream AI models and applications, but also midstream computing power and upstream resources. Among them, computing power investment is the foundation for the development of AI applications, and the computing hardware industry may develop before the AI application industry.
Zheng Weishan believes that the development trend of the AI computing industry will be more obvious this year. Since last year, the AI industry has grown rapidly from billions of parameter models to hundreds of billions of parameter models, bringing 100 times or 1,000 times the demand for computing power. The industrial data side also confirms the trend of rapid development of AI computing power, and the production capacity of related industries is accelerating. With the iteration of large AI models towards more massive data training, larger parameter scale, and wider intelligent scenarios, AI computing power may have greater development potential in the future.
However, the author found that as a veteran fund manager, Zheng Weishan's performance in recent years has not been satisfactory, especially the performance of Galaxy Innovation Mix A. According to the daily fund network, it currently mainly manages 4 products (the initial caliber of the fund), with a total management scale of 15.7 billion yuan. Since 2023, Zheng Weishan's products under management have lost their annual yields.
01
Zheng Weishan's fund has lost 40% in the past 2 years
According to the daily fund network, Zheng Weishan has worked in Guoyuan Securities Research Center, Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., Ltd., and Industrial Fund Management Co., Ltd., engaged in investment and research. In October 2018, he joined the equity investment department of Galaxy Fund Management Co., Ltd. 2020-02-17Started to work as the fund manager of Galaxy and Beauty Life Theme Mixed Securities Investment Fund. Since May 9, 2020, he has been the fund manager of Galaxy Reserve Multi-Strategy Hybrid Securities Investment Fund.
Since March 17, 2022, he has served as the fund manager of Galaxy Zhilian Theme Flexible Allocation Hybrid Securities Investment Fund. On March 17, 2022, he served as the fund manager of Galaxy Industrial Power Hybrid Securities Investment Fund. Zheng Weishan has served for a total of 4 years and 330 days, with a current management scale of 15.765 billion yuan, and the best fund return during his tenure is 52.60%.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
According to the daily fund network, Zheng Weishan's performance has not been satisfactory in recent years, and almost all of the four funds currently under management have suffered losses. This year, there are 4 funds that have lost money, of which Galaxy Innovation Growth Mixed A/C has the largest loss, with a return of -12.62% and -12.76%, and 4 funds have lost money in the past 6 months, and all 4 funds have fallen by more than 11%.
In the past 1 year, there have also been 4 funds that have suffered losses, of which 3 funds have fallen by more than 35%, and among them, Galaxy and Beauty Life Mixed A/C have lost the most, with a return of -38.07% and -38.44%, and 4 funds have suffered losses in the past 2 years, of which the largest loss is Galaxy and Beauty Life Mixed A, with a return of -41.63%.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
Let's first take a look at Zheng Weishan's fund with large losses, according to the daily fund network, the Galaxy Industrial Power Hybrid A Fund was established on January 25, 2021, and the current fund size is 486 million yuan. As of April 3, the net value of the fund unit was 0.7061, with a return of -29.39% since the establishment of the fund, a return of -6.48% this year, a return of -13.21% in the past 6 months, a return of -21.02% in the past 1 year, a return of -16.39% in the past 2 years, and a return of -28.76% in the past 3 years.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
The author found that the fund has undergone two fund manager changes, the fund was managed by Shen Yufei at the beginning of its establishment, and in the 1 year and 50 days of his tenure, the return was -14.99%, and later it was replaced by Zheng Weishan, who served for 2 years and 19 days, and the return was -16.94%. Both fund managers have lost money, so what did these fund managers do?
Let's first take a look at what stocks the Galaxy Industrial Power Hybrid A Fund has made. Sanhuan Group, which held 800,000 shares in the second quarter of 2023, held 80,000 shares in the third quarter of 2023 and 80,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, during the holding period, the stock price of Sanhuan Group has been falling, and the stock price has fallen by 20.53% from April 1, 2023 to April 2, 2024.
Galaxy Industrial Power Hybrid A Fund also held 280,000 shares of Zhenhua Technology in the fourth quarter of 2021, 288,000 shares in the first quarter of 2022, 288,000 shares in the second quarter of 2022, 288,000 shares in the third quarter of 2022, and 288,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, it held 288,000 shares, and in the second quarter of 2023, it held 288,000 shares, and in the third quarter of 2023, it was no longer available, and it is estimated that the stock price fell and the position was closed. However, during the holding period, Zhenhua Technology's stock price fell, falling by 20% from October 8, 2021 to September 30, 2023.
Galaxy Industrial Power Hybrid A Fund also holds 360,000 shares of Philip in the second quarter of 2023, 360,000 shares in the third quarter of 2023, and reduced its position to 200,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2023, and it is unclear whether it will still hold it in the first quarter of 2024. However, the price of Philip's shares plummeted during the fund's holdings, falling by 33.54% from April 1, 2023 to April 2, 2024, when the fund held it for one year.
The author found that the fund also held 670,000 shares of Hangyang in the second quarter of 2023, 670,000 shares in the third quarter of 2023, and 200,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, after the fund bought Hangyang shares, its stock price has fallen by 6% from April 1, 2023 to April 2, 2024.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
Some people said that I bought the fund when it was issued, and at that time, it was for the manager of Shenfei, a doctor of economics. Somehow, after changing the manager, it is not denied that the general environment is not good, but there are also funds with better gains. The fund has fallen so much, what responsibilities should the fund manager and the fund company that manages the fund bear, and how can they give an explanation to the broad masses of the people? Some people said in a post that if you look at the other funds managed by this manager, they are all on the bottom list.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
It is worth noting that the Galaxy Industrial Power Hybrid A Fund raised 2.617 billion yuan at the beginning of its establishment, and since the first quarter of 2021, there have been redemptions of shares, and in the second quarter of 2021, there was a large redemption, and the fund was redeemed 466 million shares, and even 1.247 billion shares were redeemed in the third quarter of 2021. The net assets at the end of the period were 486 million yuan, a decrease of 9.64% over the previous period.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
In addition to the poor performance of the Galaxy Industrial Power Mixed A Fund, the author also found that the performance of the Galaxy and Mei Life Mixed A Fund, which was established on November 22, 2018, has a fund size of 335 million yuan. As of April 3, the net value of the fund unit was 1.0378, with a return of 3.78% since the establishment of the fund, a return of -10.05% this year, a return of -18.64% in the past 6 months, a return of -38.07% in the past 1 year, a return of -41.63% in the past 2 years, a return of -25.69% in the past 3 years, and a return of -8.39% in the past 5 years.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
Galaxy and Beauty Life Mixed A Fund has undergone 4 rotations, Yuan Xi managed for 323 days with a return of 19.20%, Yuan Xi and Lou Huafeng only managed for 127 days with a return of 2.66%, Lou Huafeng and Zheng Weishan jointly managed with a return of 28.67%, but after changing to Zheng Weishan for 2 years and 303 days of management from June 5, 2021, the return on tenure was -33.24%.
Some people said that this new energy track fund should be managed independently by Manager Li Yifan, we are all old fans of the Galaxy investment research platform, Galaxy has been a mature old researcher for so many years to contribute real strength, how many generations of investment research executives have worked hard, these two years are really tears. Some people also said, Brother Shan, how did you achieve short-term, medium- and long-term, all of which are firmly on the bottom list?
Is it because of your investment philosophy? Is the picture the huge space on the left side of the layout you mentioned? Or is it your weakening timing? Or will you not choose the timing? Come on, come out and say two sentences, you are always one or two news a month to share your investment philosophy. Continue to share? Continue to cite Wind data, all Galaxy products are the first in the year.
The author also found that the fund's drawdown rate is also very large, in the past 1 year, the fund's downside risk is 20.3560%, which is greater than the average of its peers, and the maximum drawdown is 48.5098%, which is greater than the average of its peers. In the past 3 years, the downside risk of the fund is 20.4965%, which is greater than the average of its peers, and the maximum drawdown is 63.2500%, which is greater than the average of its peers.
In the past 5 years, the downside risk of the fund is 19.5038%, which is greater than the average of its peers, and the maximum drawdown is 63.2500%, which is greater than the average of its peers. The author looks at the fund's annual holdings and finds that the fund has a variety of styles, and most of the holdings in 2019 are concentrated in brokerages, banks and medical stocks. In 2020, the figure of brokerage bank stocks disappeared, and they became new energy stocks again, and in recent years, they have been replaced by stocks in the AI sector.
The author found that the fund held 329,900 shares of Sungrow in the third quarter of 2022 and 70,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022. It holds 400,000 shares in the first quarter of 2023 and 410,000 shares in the second quarter of 2023. However, the Sungrow stock price has been declining during the holding period, falling by 8.7% from July 1, 2022 to September 29, 2023.
The author also found that the fund held 370,000 shares of Baoxin Software in the fourth quarter of 2023, but the stock price of Baoxin Software has fallen by 20% since it was bought.
GoodWe held 88,000 shares in the second quarter of 2022, 125,000 shares in the third quarter of 2022, and 70,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022. It holds 150,000 shares in the first quarter of 2023, 182,000 shares in the second quarter of 2023, 100,000 shares in the third quarter of 2023, and 30,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, during the fund's holding period, GoodWe experienced significant fluctuations, and the stock price rose to 328 yuan per share in the third quarter of 2022, but as of April 3, 2024, GoodWe's stock price fell to 100 yuan per share, a 35% decline in the entire holding cycle.
According to the straight flush, in terms of fund style, the fund's style is poor in offense and defense, and the capture ratio comprehensively considers the upward capture rate and the downside capture rate, and the larger the value, the better. The fund's capture ratio is 96.6894%, compared to -32.8459% for its peers. Offensive ability is expressed by the upside capture rate, which measures the sensitivity of the fund to the market when the market rises, representing the offensive ability of the fund, the larger the value, the better, and the greater than 1 represents the victory over the market. The upward capture rate of the fund is 97.0326%, compared with the upward capture rate of 86.2384% of similar types, reflecting better offensive ability.
Defensive ability is expressed by the downside capture rate, which measures the sensitivity of the fund to the market when the market falls, which represents the defensive ability of the fund, the smaller the value, the better, and the smaller than 1 represents the victory over the market. The downside capture rate of the fund is 100.3550%, compared with the downside capture rate of 90.0270% of the same type, reflecting a worse defensive ability.
The α of the fund's stock selection ability is 0.0104%, which is 1933/4217 for similar funds, and the median stock selection ability is 0.0035% compared with the α of similar stock selection ability. Among them, there are 529 funds that reflect the ability to select stocks correctly, 197 funds that reflect the ability to choose stocks wrongly, and 3,491 funds that do not reflect the ability to select stocks. The γ of the Fund's timing ability is -0.0045, compared with 2039/4217 of similar funds, and the median value of timing ability is -0.0051 compared with similar γ. Among them, 367 funds showed the ability to choose the right time, 808 funds showed the ability to choose the wrong time, and 3,042 funds did not reflect the ability to choose the time.
02
Zheng Weishan made a big bet on SRP for what?
Zheng Weishan's fund holds Anlu Technology, which fell 50%
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
In addition to the poor performance of the above two funds, the author found that the performance of Galaxy Innovation Growth Mixed C is also not ideal, the fund was established on November 22, 2021, with a fund size of 1.874 billion yuan, the fund has been managed by Zheng Weishan, 2 years and 132 days, and the return on tenure is -53.39%. As of April 3, the net value of the fund unit was 3.8623, with a return of -54.95% since the establishment of the fund, a return of -12.76% this year, a return of -11.76% in the past 6 months, a return of -35.58% in the past 1 year, and a return of -36.78% in the past 2 years.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 3)
Recently, Zheng Weishan released a research report that the development trend of the AI computing industry this year may be highlighted. According to the "2023-2024 Chinese Intelligent Computing Power Development Assessment Report", the domestic demand for FP16 intelligent computing power is expected to increase from 75EFLOPS in 2020 to 414.3EFLOPS in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 77%. With the iteration of large AI models towards more massive data training, larger parameter scale, and wider intelligent scenarios, AI computing power may have development potential in the future.
Some people said in the post that computing power is indeed the cornerstone of the development of artificial intelligence, and there is a lot of demand space in the future. However, there are many listed companies involved in the concept of computing power, including software + computing power, server + computing power, chip + computing power, CPO + computing power, large model + computing power, etc. Manager Zheng should not put all the fund chips on software + computing power. Some people even said that they shouted domestic substitution every day, and three years ago you shouted domestic substitution of semiconductors, and the innovation growth fell from 9.32 to 3.86. Still shouting substitution, how much do you plan to fall this time?
Some people also said that it depends on what your positions are. Stryp has gone from more than 400 to more than 100 now, and Shengbang has not decreased, and the people have suffered a lot of losses. Some people also said, why has this kind of garbage ticket been kept in Anlu? The plate has risen by 17.59 in a month and a half, and this bad ticket has fallen by 17.88, which is really awesome! You are really a competent "fund manager."
The author also found that Zheng Weishan's investment style of betting on semiconductors, the concentration of the top ten heavy stocks, and the low turnover rate has brought Zheng Weishan an infinite halo during the rising period of the semiconductor field, and it will naturally drag down his pace during the trough period. In 2023, Galaxy Innovation Growth will lose 35.25%, and it has not stopped losing money this year.
The author looks at the holdings of each quarter and finds that the fund holds 8.9121 million shares of Anlu Technology in the fourth quarter of 2022, 19.5009 million shares in the first quarter of 2023, 19.5009 million shares in the second quarter of 2023, 19.5009 million shares in the third quarter of 2023, and 19.5009 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, during the holding period, the company's stock price fell, and during the holding period from October 10, 2022 to April 2, 2024, the company fell by 50%.
The author also found that the fund also held 4,633,400 shares of Shengbang shares in the fourth quarter of 2021, 4,820,000 shares in the first quarter of 2022, 8,060,300 shares in the second quarter of 2022, 9,925,600 shares in the third quarter of 2022, and 9,370,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, it held 9.39 million shares, and in the second quarter of 2023, it was even more crazy, increasing its position to 14.34 million shares, holding 14.4999 million shares in the third quarter of 2023, and holding 14.4999 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, during the fund's holdings, the stock price of Shengbang shares has been falling, falling by 62.5% between October 8, 2021 and April 2, 2024.
It is worth noting that the fund also held 27.00 million shares of SMIC in the fourth quarter of 2021, 31.20 million shares in the first quarter of 2022, 31.20 million shares in the second quarter of 2022, 30.50 million shares in the third quarter of 2022, and 33.70 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2022. It holds 34.30 million shares in the first quarter of 2023, 24.70 million shares in the second quarter of 2023, 25.90 million shares in the third quarter of 2023, and 24.50 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, the stock price fell during the fund's holding of SMIC, with SMIC falling by 20.38% from October 8, 2021 to April 2, 2024.
The author also found that the fund held 2.10 million shares of SRP in the fourth quarter of 2021, 2.2421 million shares in the first quarter of 2022, 2.7696 million shares in the second quarter of 2022, 5.20 million shares in the third quarter of 2022, and 5.23 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, it will increase its position again, increasing its position to 5.70 million shares, holding 5.65 million shares in the second quarter of 2023, holding 5.8098 million shares in the third quarter of 2023, and holding 6.4329 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2023 (the lower the stock price, the more you will increase your position, is there no strict risk control system?).
However, the author found that during the period when the fund held SRP, the stock fell from a high level but fell all the way, and the more the stock price fell, the fund continued to increase its position, which is equivalent to buying more and more as it fell, which is not at all like the style of a rigorous fund manager, but like a "gambler", no wonder the people complained, and the stock price of the fund fell by 76% from October 8, 2021 to April 3, 2024.
The author also found that in recent years, the performance of Siruipu has not been good, the performance has fallen sharply, and it is still holding a heavy position, what is the purpose? On March 30, Siruipu (688536. SH) released its 2023 annual report, and the company's performance showed its first loss since its listing in 2020. The global semiconductor is in a downward cycle, and the gross profit margin of SRP has declined for four consecutive years.
On March 30, the company released its 2023 annual report, the company achieved revenue of 1.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.68%, a net profit loss attributable to the parent company of 34.713 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 113.01%, and a non-net profit loss of 113 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160.1%, which is also the company's first loss since its listing in 2020.
For the sudden change in performance in 2023, the explanation given by SRP is that it is mainly affected by factors such as the economic situation, the demand of the end market is less than expected, and the market competition is fierce, and the company's product sales are under pressure.
Generally speaking, poor fund performance will affect the overall performance of the fund company, and the continuous loss of the fund will also lead to a continuous decline in the scale of the fund company, or affect the overall growth of the fund company. As a veteran fund company, Galaxy Fund was established in June 2002 and is the first fund management company approved by the market-oriented mechanism, and its largest shareholder is China Galaxy Financial Holdings, holding 50% of the shares.
As of the end of 2023, the assets under management of Galaxy Fund exceeded 100 billion yuan, reaching 103.5 billion yuan. The company's product types are mainly bond fund products, with a scale of 49.1 billion yuan, followed by hybrid funds and currency funds, with a scale of 25.192 billion yuan and 26 billion yuan respectively, and the scale of equity funds is only 3.026 billion yuan. Although it has been established for 22 years, Galaxy Fund can be called the "predecessor" of the mutual fund industry.
However, compared with the established fund companies such as China Merchants Fund and E Fund established at the same time, the development of Galaxy Fund is relatively inferior. In terms of scale, the asset scale of Galaxy Fund, China Merchants Fund and E Fund is two times and five times different. The management scale of 100 billion yuan is no longer prominent in the public offering market of more than 20 trillion yuan, and the Galaxy Fund is also considered by the outside world to be a little backward in development.