【Military Subplane】Author: Lele
In 2014, the news that China purchased the Su-35SK from Russia caused an uproar in China. At that time, the indignation of public opinion against the introduction of the Su-35SK was difficult to understand by the crowd who are now sitting and watching the J-20 and J-35 soar. Interestingly, not long ago, the Russian aviation industry finally launched an advanced model called the Su-35SM, which can more clearly see the development ideas of the Su-35 and the reasons why it is now left behind by the J-10C.
▲ The dispute over the Su-35SK has long come to an end
The Su-35 was born from the Su-30SM, and the former was born on the basis of the latter, which comprehensively upgraded the engine, radar, and avionics, and changed the two-seater to a single-seater. According to the thinking of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) at that time, the single-seat Su-35 had stronger performance and focused on air supremacy, while the Su-30SM, which directly copied the Su-30MKI, undertook ground/sea support tasks at a lower manufacturing/use cost. The two not only cooperate closely, but also use the same body, which can naturally greatly reduce the cost of later maintenance. This development logic was not a problem at the time, and the VKS was very satisfied with the Su-30SM as a whole, except for the fact that the Su-30SM was slightly less aggressive and specially launched the Su-34 for strengthening. The point is that the subsequent development of the Su-30SM and Su-35 did not keep up.
▲Su-30SM is a key model in the Russian army
The Su-30SM and Su-35 began mass production around 2012, nearly five years earlier than AVIC's launch of the J-10C and J-16. The advantage of being one step ahead is the key reason for Russia's export of Su-35SK to China, but it also means that the Su-35 and Su-30SM have many inherent shortcomings, which is particularly obvious on the radar. The J-10C, J-16 and even the "Rafale" F3 that appeared at the same time have realized the active phased array radar on the aircraft, while the Su-35 and Su-30SM have been using passive phased array radar, which in turn affects the overall situational awareness of the fighter. When the VKS went to war in 2022, it was armed with at least 130 Su-30SM, a multi-purpose model that theoretically played both air and ground missions, but due to radar and avionics drag, it actually had no presence at all.
▲The first batch of Su-30SM2 just delivered before the war
Among the three ground attack equipment, Su-34, Su-30SM and Su-25, 4 regimental combat units of Su-34 have won the title of "Guard", Su-25 has 2, and Su-30SM has only 1. To put it bluntly, the Su-30SM did not meet the technical standards of three and a half generations in essence, and the first batch of 4 aircraft was delivered in February 2022, and the Su-30SM2 with the same radar and engine as the Su-35S was considered to have crossed this threshold, but the number was too small. The problem of the Su-35S is the same, the Su-35SM, which has recently been fully equipped with Su-57 radar and engine, is only the top level of the third and a half generations, and it is really tied with J-10C, J-16, and F-15EX, but it came out too late.
▲The Su-35S should have been upgraded with reference to the Su-57 a long time ago
The Su-35S has been in production for 12 years, during which time no major model has been introduced. If there are indeed insurmountable obstacles in technology, it is clear that the Su-57 has started trial production in 2020, and the Su-35S can take the opportunity to upgrade the radar and engine, but it is delayed. The Su-30SM has long been able to learn from the Su-35S's subsystem upgrades, which have also been delayed for more than 10 years. So much so that after the start of the war, the VKS had a large fleet, but there were only a handful of advanced aircraft that could actually fly to the battlefield, and the Su-34 had to provoke the girder of the ground attack. Although now, with the assistance of guided bombs, the Su-34's battle loss rate has been greatly reduced, and the attack effect has skyrocketed, its early heavy losses cannot be concealed.
▲The Su-34 bears the heavy responsibility that was not entirely its own
In contrast, although AVIC is developing J-10C and J-16 at a slightly slower pace, these two third-generation and a half fighters and J-20 have always interconnected technology, and J-10C and J-20 are mutually reinforcing: J-10C is J-20 verification radar and advanced avionics architecture, while J-20 gives J-10C development resources that are difficult to obtain. It is essentially the same reason that the Liaoning ship is equipped with the J-35 model to verify its design, explore the way for the Fujian ship, and carry the J-35 in the future. After 2015, the Russian aviation industry developed three models in parallel, Su-57, Su-35S and Su-30SM, but their radars and engines did not intersect with each other, and it was not until the eve of the war that the first strengthening product - Su-30SM2 was launched, which is obviously problematic.
▲ J-10C has done a very good job
The most plausible explanation is that VKS was optimistic about the development of the Su-57 at that time, judging that the Su-35S and Su-30SM would be replaced by the Su-57 family without upgrading. However, this erroneous view should have been corrected after the crash of the first Su-57 trial production, and the VKS would still have enough time to assemble the Su-30SM2 and Su-35SM. But the fact is that nothing has changed, until the outbreak of war, when the Su-30SM and Su-35S went out to meet the enemy, and the VKS finally paid for its slackness. Due to the fact that the Ukrainian Air Force was destroyed at the start of the war, the Su-35S then did not show very serious problems. But with the delivery of the F-16 to Ukraine, the Su-35S will sooner or later follow in the footsteps of the Su-30SM, and now it depends on when the Su-35SM will be able to stand up and take the lead.