Hello friends.
There are three main focuses today.
First and foremost, the focus is on US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China.
This afternoon (April 6), Yellen should depart from Guangzhou to Beijing, but it has been raining heavily in Guangdong in recent days, and it is not yet known whether she will be able to take off on time.
Tomorrow's itinerary is more critical, and I elaborated in detail in yesterday's article, so I will not repeat it here.
Today, I would like to analyze with you the focus of Yellen's talks with the Vice Premier in charge of economic affairs of the Chinese State Council in Guangzhou yesterday (April 5), and how will it develop in the future?
Secondly, the second focus is the likely visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to China in mid-April.
It is worth noting that a large number of German companies and officials will accompany Scholz on his visit to China, including three ministers, namely the Minister of Agriculture, the Minister of Transport, and the Minister of the Environment.
Generally speaking, this is rare, so what does this mean?
Combining the above two focuses, we can see that, on the one hand, because Yellen is still a dove, the United States can be said to exert pressure on China with soft and hard, and this pressure is very critical to China;
On the other hand, the interaction between Germany and Europe and China is also crucial, with the Chinese leader rumored to visit France in May or elsewhere. Of course, this news is subject to official confirmation in the end.
Finally, the third focus is the possibility that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit China in the near future.
The day before yesterday (April 4), Lavrov clearly affirmed the 12-point plan proposed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry in February last year, saying that China's political solution to the Ukraine issue is very rational.
If nothing else, Russian President Vladimir Putin may also visit China in May.
Therefore, the two months of April and May should be a very busy time for China's foreign affairs, especially in the diplomacy of major powers.
01
To cut a long story short, let's talk about the first focus.
Previously, I have repeatedly said that Yellen is soft and hard, and it seems that she is attacking China. In this process, it mainly focuses on problems such as overcapacity in China. Among them, it is especially aimed at China's three industries: electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells.
In response, Yellen pointed the finger at China's government subsidies and other things, which has been echoed in the United States across the Democratic and Republican parties. Not only that, but this has also been echoed to a considerable extent in Western camps such as Canada.
Therefore, Yellen, as a dove in the United States, has been treated with great courtesy, respect and face by the Chinese side.
For example, yesterday (April 5) afternoon, when the vice premier in charge of economic affairs of the State Council of China met with Yellen at the Zhudao Hotel, he said that the Zhudao Hotel is a place for the Chinese side to receive important foreign guests.
At the same time, China's vice premier also said: "When I flew from Beijing to Guangzhou, I encountered a thunderstorm, which caused me to hover in the air for more than two hours, but finally landed safely, which shows that China-US relations, especially China-US economic and trade relations, are like a rainbow after a rain, which often makes people look forward to it even more......."
It can be seen that the Chinese Vice Premier used a story to tell a very good truth, and I think this vernacular does not involve the difference in cultural perception between the East and the West, so Yellen should also know it.
However, I would like to point out that Yellen's so-called "plan" is actually characterized by the West as a whole, and it is aimed at China's three industries.
From the Chinese side, we don't have strong government subsidies, and we can't make concessions, because these three industries are one of the key engines in China's economic recovery this year.
Of course, this is not the only engine, but also some old industries, such as real estate and so on. However, the new industry, which we now call the new quality productive forces, is a very hot thing from the second half of last year to the first half of this year, and it is not only a political term, but also a thing that all walks of life must deeply understand.
Therefore, to a certain extent, the United States is actually aiming at the new quality productive forces.
In this sense, the problem is serious. It is certainly impossible for China to make concessions, because this is a basic definition of the future direction of economic strategic development, and if the United States wants to suppress this, it will be to some extent like suppressing "Made in China 2025" a few years ago.
But we are also reluctant to say it thoroughly, the so-called "see through but not break through", especially Yellen's visit to China, we still have to give face and respect.
So, yesterday (April 5th) I used 6 "very" to describe the softness of the nails, and we will give both face and lining.
In this sense, the Chinese Vice Premier had a conversation with Yellen in Guangzhou in the past two days, which was to prepare Yellen first. In Guangzhou, the two sides probably talked about at least two to three rounds, and the words "see the rainbow after the rain" revealed by the media are actually a pun.
So, did the Chinese side respond to Yellen? Did it touch the soft nail for her? If so, to what extent? Of course, it is certainly impossible to accept all the orders, and this is completely outside China's agenda.
The above issues have not been reported by Chinese state media. Judging from my nearly 40 years of journalism experience, the more unreported it is, the more major news will follow.
In any case, Yellen must be in intensive consultations with her team at the moment, and will also report back to Washington at the same time. When Yellen arrives in Beijing, we'll see how the next step will be and how we'll be able to play and bargain.
In addition, the overall relationship between China and the United States has been good recently. After Yellen returns, Blinken may come, and in any case, we don't want to affect the overall situation of Sino-US relations.
For example, on April 3 and 4, China and the United States held military and maritime consultations in Hawaii to discuss how the two sides should respond in the event of a maritime encounter or even a collision between the Chinese and American militaries.
Although the officers present at this meeting were not of high rank, it was of great significance.
In addition, China's vice minister of commerce also visited the United States from April 2 to 5 to hold close consultations on a number of related issues.
It can be seen that the recent exchanges between China and the United States are not only Yellen's visit to China, but also the deputy ministerial-level officials of the People's Liberation Army and China's Ministry of Commerce have also come to the United States, in fact, both China and the United States have done a lot of work.
On the whole, China and the United States want to have more and more room for communication at the technical level.
But the problem is that Yellen's visit to China this time is aimed at China's three industries, and these three industries are not only crucial to China's economic recovery and economic development this year and in the future, but also directly related to China's new quality productivity strategy.
From this point of view, this matter is more serious.
I don't know if anyone has pointed this out to the US delegation, and we can't repeat the mistakes of the year for "Made in China 2025", otherwise the problem will be very serious, and we must not make a small ruin. The United States wants to fight big with a small one, but the price of destroying the big with a small one is very high.
But in any case, China will still give Yellen enough courtesy and respect.
The first few rounds of the contest were in Guangzhou, and the next few rounds were in Beijing, and I also said yesterday that when I arrived in Beijing, I am afraid that 2/3 of the overall situation has been decided.
Beijing's itinerary is very intensive, and Yellen will meet with a number of senior Chinese officials. On April 8, the US side wishfully wanted to hold a live press conference, and we will wait and see whether it can be done in the end.
02
Let's talk about the second focus.
Around mid-April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will lead a delegation to China, including three ministers: the Minister of Agriculture, the Minister of Transport, and the Minister of the Environment, all of whom have different party affiliations, two of which are the Greens and one is the FDP.
So, what does this mean?
First of all, this is very rare in history.
Secondly, it shows that Germany intends to cooperate with China in these areas.
In addition, it also shows that within Germany, at least three parties now, namely "one big and two small", Scholz still dominates.
In November 2022, just after the conclusion of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Scholz made a special trip to Beijing for 11 hours and returned to Germany on the same day. Then this time there will be more people coming, and a large number of German entrepreneurs will come, and they will stay longer.
Although German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has not been very friendly to China in recent times, on the whole, German investment in China has risen instead of declining, and has hit a record high.
In this process, it shows that under the situation of "one big and two small" in the German government, the "one big" SPD not only dominates, but also has a rather rational and pragmatic color.
Although Scholz will also talk to China about the so-called "overcapacity" in the agenda, he has put this issue on the back burner, unlike Yellen, who puts it in a head position.
And for China, there are many "cards", and no matter what the United States is, China still has the "European card". Although Europe is becoming more and more monolithic, there is still a "German card".
Although it is complicated internally, Scholz and the SPD are still dominant, and German business is very pragmatic and rational.
There is an industrial federation in Germany, but Scholz did not include them in the delegation this time, because this industrial federation has played a less constructive role in Chinese politics in previous years.
So I have a good evaluation of Scholz, I rarely express a strong personal color to Western leaders, but I think Scholz is one of the few politicians who seems to be calm on the surface, but in fact has a certain amount of foresight.
Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Economy Minister Robert Habeck are worse off.
In addition to Germany, France has also been in close contact with China recently.
Recently, some French scholars have gone to China, and Chinese scholars have also gone to France, and both sides are conducting research and preparing for a possible meeting between the Chinese and French heads of state in May.
Macron's second term is almost halfway through, and although in his second term, his hands and feet in foreign affairs were tied by domestic issues, but after the halfway point of his term, he is increasingly showing his ambition to resume his first term diplomatically.
Because Macron is not under re-election pressure now, but he has the ambition to leave a name in history, especially on the issue of Russia and Europe, whether it is sending troops, or in the event that Trump comes to power in the future, who will provide nuclear protection for Europe, Macron's ambition can be seen.
So for China, China hopes that France can play more and more roles, and this year happens to be the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, so it is believed that the Chinese side will still have high expectations for France, and at the same time will give France some bargaining chips.
Although after last year's Munich Motor Show in Germany, French car companies played some unconstructive roles, but this matter is a gust of wind and forget it.
Especially now, Germany is still playing a relatively central role, and although relations between Germany and France are becoming increasingly discordant, they are still a force that China can fight for.
The Chinese leader will likely visit France in May this year, and of course all this will be subject to official Chinese sources.
But at least this year, in addition to the exchanges between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there will be more exchanges between the heads of state of China and France, and they will give each other some bargaining chips.
Eventually, China hopes that France will play an increasingly constructive role in its strategic autonomy.
03
Finally, I would like to talk to you about the last focus, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov may visit China in the near future.
As we all know, although Sino-Russian relations are not mentioned or capped, they are actually unbreakable.
Then on the Ukrainian issue, now all parties are putting forward opinions and plans, including Zelensky, who is also proposing plans, but Russia completely rejected his request.
In fact, theoretically, Russia is also willing to reach a plan in private, which, frankly speaking, is actually a ceasefire model of the Korean War, not an end-of-war model.
And this is very similar to the 12-point proposal proposed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry in February last year for a formal settlement of the Ukrainian issue.
In points 7 and 8 of this plan, the Chinese side proposed a ceasefire and truce as soon as possible and start peace talks.
Moreover, the position of the Chinese side takes into account both the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine and the many knots that Russia has created in the entire geostrategy before the war.
Therefore, Lavrov revealed the day before yesterday that he might visit China in the near future, and at the same time he also said two points:
First, he called China's plan rational.
Second, he said that China's plan takes care of both Ukraine and Russia, and that it takes into account the present, the past, and even the future.
From this point of view, then, there are bold reasons to believe that if Russia can accept China's 12-point plan, then the next Chinese envoy will go to Ukraine and Europe again, and there is a possibility of facilitating a ceasefire.
The Chinese envoy went to Ukraine and Europe in May last year and some time earlier this year, but no breakthrough was made, so Lavrov's visit to China may bring some new possibilities.
In addition, Lavrov's visit to China may also be a preliminary preparation for Putin's visit to China in May. Of course, whether or not Putin will visit China will be subject to official information.
If Putin can visit China this year, then I think it will be of considerable significance to China-Russia relations, to observe the trend of the Russia-Ukraine war, or to observe the trend of the entire geostrategic pattern.
It is worth noting that Lavrov's words happened to be made after the recent phone call between the heads of state of China and the United States.
So in the two months of April and May, whether it's China and the United States, China and Europe, China and Russia, Russia and Ukraine, and the Middle East that we haven't talked about yet, I suggest that you pay close attention to a series of moves by China's diplomacy and the subtle changes in the geostrategic landscape that have been triggered by them.