On the afternoon of April 4, 2024, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stepped off the plane with a crossbody bag on her back and began her visit to China.
This is Yellen's second visit to China during her tenure, and she has become a cabinet official who has visited China twice during her tenure in the Biden administration. She is also the first senior U.S. official to visit China since 2024.
When Yellen visited Beijing in July 2023, Sino-US relations were in a more tense state than they are now, and she was more cautious in coming to China. At that time, when I saw Vice Premier He Lifeng, he even bowed three times, and was "scolded" by the US media.
Since the beginning of this year, a series of events, such as the election of the leader of the Taiwan region, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have not had a major negative impact on Sino-US relations.
This time, Mrs. Yellen walked off the plane with a crossbody bag on her back, and her steps were much brisker.
Why Yellen came?
An important background of Yellen's visit to China is that on the evening of April 2, the heads of China and the United States had a frank and in-depth exchange of views on China-US relations and issues of common concern, and Biden said in the phone call that he is willing to arrange for Secretary of the Treasury Yellen and Secretary of State Blinken to visit China in the near future.
On April 3, the Ministry of Finance announced that Yellen will visit China from April 4 to 9 as agreed by China and the United States. Obviously, Yellen's current visit to China is one of the direct results of the phone call between the Chinese and US leaders.
In fact, since last year's "balloon turmoil," the United States has also realized that there are some things that cannot be done, otherwise Sino-US relations will plummet.
After less than a year, Yellen's two visits to China are obviously under Biden's instructions to "talk about cooperation", and after Yellen, Blinken's second visit to China will also be on the agenda, reflecting the urgent desire of the United States to "stabilize China-US relations".
Why did the Biden administration send Yellen first? It is undoubtedly because of the importance of Sino-US economic and trade issues.
On April 2, the American magazine Foreign Affairs published an article entitled "China is Still Rising - Don't Underestimate the World's Second Largest Economy", in which it directly pointed out that the so-called "China peaking theory" underestimated China's economy.
The article lists a range of data, such as:
China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 20% in 2023 compared to 2019, while the United States grew by only 8%;
In 2023, China's per capita disposable income will grow by about 6% in real terms, and per capita consumption expenditure will increase by 9%, indicating that consumer confidence remains strong in terms of consumption growth exceeding income growth......
The final conclusion of the article is that China's economic growth rate may be twice that of the United States in the future, and China's economic contribution to world economic growth is expected to continue to remain at about one-third.
From the point of view in this article, it is not difficult to understand why Biden is eager to stabilize Sino-US economic and trade relations, and sent Mrs. Yellen to China twice in less than a year!
After all, the U.S. election is approaching, and a stable Sino-US relationship is undoubtedly conducive to Biden, who has locked in the Democratic nominee, for re-election.
What did Yellen talk about during her second visit to China?
It is worth noting that Yellen's visit to China this time is longer than the last time, and she will visit more places in China. Her first stop was Guangzhou, followed by a visit to Beijing.
In addition to meeting with the Vice Premier of the State Council, the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the People's Bank of China and other Chinese officials in the fields of finance and finance, the itinerary also included meetings with Chinese economists and exchanges at Peking University.
This arrangement undoubtedly shows that Yellen has a stronger desire to understand China, and this will certainly help the US side make a more realistic judgment on China.
Regarding the purpose of the trip, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement saying that Yellen's trip will seek to establish healthy economic relations with China.
Indeed, U.S. government officials told the media that the U.S.-China economic relationship is undoubtedly on a stronger footing than it was two years ago, thanks to the efforts of President Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and the administration.
Since Yellen's visit to China in July last year, China and the United States have set up economic and financial working groups and held three meetings, the main purpose of which is to help China and the United States establish continuous communication on economic and financial issues.
From the beginning of the discussion on the macroeconomic situation and bilateral economic relations, to the third dialogue on the debt problem of developing countries, industrial policy and other specific topics. After many rounds of communication, the things that can be discussed between China and the United States have begun to become more and more detailed.
The Treasury Department led by Yellen is the lead agency for these two mechanisms. The main purpose of Yellen's visit is obviously to further coordinate economic and trade relations with China. During her visit, Yellen will meet with senior Chinese officials and representatives of large U.S. companies doing business in China.
At the same time, cooperation between China and the United States in combating illegal activities in the financial sector will also be a key topic of Yellen's trip.
When Biden first took office, he emphasized that "China and the United States will compete when they should compete, cooperate when they can, and confront when they must confront."
Anti-money laundering, anti-terrorist financing, anti-tax evasion, etc. are all areas of common interest between China and the United States, and the China-US financial working group has also been discussing this topic in the early stage.
The outcome of the visit remains to be seen
However, the topics of Yellen's visit to China are not all harmonious. Recently, Yellen has frequently sung about China's economy and voiced some discordant voices in the economic and trade fields between China and the United States:
At the 50th anniversary dinner of the U.S.-China Business Council, Yellen called for a shift in China's economic policy, claiming that China's state-owned enterprises and security agencies play too far to limit economic growth and hinder investment.
After visiting solar cell maker Suniva in Georgia in March, Yellen expressed concern about China's emerging "overcapacity" in "new" industries such as solar energy, electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries, saying she planned to discuss the issue as a key topic during her visit......
There have been comments before that to pay attention to the results of Yellen's visit to China, it is better to see where Yellen is going to go first......
After all, the normal state of the United States is to say one thing and do another, repeatedly emphasizing that it is unwilling to decouple from China and to strengthen cooperation with China in various fields, but in fact, it has not left any action against China.
Therefore, if Yellen only visits China with the mentality of making money for Biden and coming to China to "travel at public expense", then it may be difficult to talk about any substantive results.
At present, China-US relations are still not strong enough and there is no crisis management mechanism, so we still hope that the US side can match its words with deeds, and not keep waving the stick of sanctions against China while saying that it will strengthen dialogue and cooperation.
To put it bluntly, we are willing to develop healthy and stable China-US economic and trade relations, but the premise is mutual respect and win-win cooperation.
When Yang Yingming, director of the Department of International Economic Relations of the Chinese Ministry of Finance, and US Ambassador to China Burns shook hands with Yellen, they all pointed to the sky to remind the old lady to look up at the rainbow.
I wonder if the economic and trade relations between China and the United States, which have gone through twists and turns, can show positive signs like "seeing a rainbow after the rain" after Yellen's visit to China?