"大国舅"毁民国
Chenminghai
Why did the Kuomintang regime, which had just won the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, collapse like lightning and lose the mainland? In addition to autocratic dictatorship, loss of popular support, corruption and infighting, and going against the tide of history, the key factors were the collapse of the economy and the collapse of the material basis for supporting the war. Chiang Kai-shek's brother-in-law, Song Ziwen, known as the "uncle of the great powers," launched a series of unbelievable economic reform policies, which led to a rapid economic avalanche, affecting the overall situation, and finally becoming impossible to clean up.
Radical and absurd economic policy
On June 25, 1945, Song Ziwen was sworn in as the President of the Republic of China in Chongqing. As soon as he came to power, he came up with the "40% donation method of gold buyers" to plunder the people. Many decisions are absurd and clumsy, and they bring disaster to the country and the people.
The first is the publication of the absurd and cruel exchange ratio between fiat currency and counterfeit currency. After the victory of the Anti-Japanese War, some experts calculated according to the ratio of prices in the nationalized areas and the occupied areas, and the exchange ratio between fiat currency and counterfeit currency was about 1:50; Qian Dazhu, vice president of the Central Reserve Bank, based on the data in his custody, calculated that the exchange ratio should be 1:28 based on the comparison between the banknotes issued by the Central Reserve Bank and the gold, silver, foreign exchange, and related movable and real estate in stock. However, on September 27, 1945, the Ministry of Finance in charge of Song Ziwen announced the exchange ratio between fiat currency and counterfeit currency: 1:200!
Countless officials, businessmen, and even ordinary people in the Kuomintang area carried a large amount of fiat currency to the occupied areas to buy it, resulting in soaring prices, hundreds of millions of people in the occupied areas being tragically deprived, and the value of assets being greatly depreciated overnight. Those who came to Shanghai, Nanjing, and other occupied areas from Chongqing, Sichuan, and other nationalist areas made a fortune in the occupied areas with their worthless fiat currency, and quickly became wealthy people with tens of thousands of dollars in their pockets.
According to historian Huang Renyu's recollections, he followed Zheng Dongguo from Kunming to Liuzhou to Shanghai to receive his salary, and as soon as he got off the plane, he found that the fiat currency in his hand had suddenly become hard currency! In Chongqing, he could only buy two fritters for fiat currency, but when he arrived in Shanghai, he could set up two tables of banquets in a high-end restaurant. As a result, he and those who came out of the rear fully enjoyed the "taste of the fruits of the victory of the Anti-Japanese War". Even Huang Yuren, a member of the Kuomintang Central Executive Committee and a member of the Kuomintang National Participation Committee, who has always adhered to the anti-corruption campaign and reversed the Song Dynasty, admitted that after he arrived in the occupied areas, he exchanged 500,000 yuan of legal tender in the rear area for 100 million yuan in counterfeit currency. With that money I bought a courtyard house, I had a lot of money left, and I bought some furniture and clothes for my wife and children.
In this way, in addition to the large amount of fiat currency flowing to Shanghai and other places in Chongqing and other places, the people in the occupied areas also rushed to buy fiat currency, and the situation of fiat currency in short supply quickly formed. The Nationalist Government was in a hurry and had to put a large amount of fiat currency on the market, prices rose more and more rapidly, the credit of fiat currency continued to fall, and the occupied areas fell into chaos due to sharp inflation. In less than half a year, the prices of all kinds of daily necessities in Shanghai, Nanjing, and other places, such as rice, have skyrocketed by more than 500 times, and the economic order has almost collapsed. Chongqing's "Ta Kung Pao" specially published an editorial entitled "An Appeal for the People of Jiangsu and Zhejiang", in which it shouted: "After eight years of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, inflation in the rear has not yet reached the level of bankrupting a large number of industries and commerce; Now that victory has come, as soon as it starts, it will put the whole country's wealth in the vicinity of Jiangsu and Zhejiang in danger of economic collapse!"
Even senior officials in the KMT and the government admitted that this move was extremely wrong, and even attributed it to the fact that the KMT eventually lost the mainland. For example, Li Zongren said that the exchange rate of counterfeit coupons was extremely unreasonable, so that "under a single order, many people in the reconquest area suddenly became destitute, and the recipients who brought a large amount of fiat currency immediately became rich." The government has lost the hearts and minds of the people in the reconquest areas, and nothing more"; Chen Cheng believes that receiving has become "robbery", which only makes people angry; When summing up the reasons and lessons of the Kuomintang's defeat in Taiwan, Kuomintang veteran Chen Lifu wrote bitterly: "Minister Song (Song Ziwen) of the financial authorities actually stipulated that 200 yuan of counterfeit currency be exchanged for 1 yuan of legal currency...... Isn't this paving the way for the Communist Party? We have already turned the people into proletariats for the Communist Party. ”
A responsible government must not allow such disorderly governance, but most of the senior Kuomintang officials like to enjoy such "fruits of the War of Resistance" and are unwilling to correct it in time. Chiang Kai-shek, as the supreme head of the Nationalist Government, could only put forward empty principled instructions, not to mention that Chiang Kai-shek's thoughts and energies at that time were devoted to suppressing the Communists, and he only knew how to ask the Ministry of Finance for money, and he was too lazy to pay attention to other things.
The second is to implement the policy of economic liberalization of financial openness. In order to cope with the inflation of his own making, Soong Ziwen began to take a disastrous remedy - the implementation of a financially open economic liberalization policy.
Song Ziwen wielded the "three-board axe" that destroyed the Republic of China: open the financial market, peg the price of fiat currency to the dollar, and stabilize the value of the currency; opening the Shanghai gold market and recovering the currency by selling gold; Overvaluing the value of fiat currencies to stimulate import trade.
The practice of "Uncle Song" just gave the speculators a huge loophole: since the fiat currency is pegged to the US dollar, then the speculators will sell the fiat currency to obtain the US dollar. Once the fiat currency depreciates, the central government will have to pay for it with its precious foreign exchange and gold reserves. It doesn't take too many speculators, and the people in China alone are enough to deplete the central government's dollar reserves.
Song Ziwen hopes to sell gold to recoup the currency and stabilize the value of the currency. When he first became the premier, he was ashamed to declare: "Our policy is not necessarily to sell all the gold." But in any case, the government has the power in its hands, even gold, and it can control finance. It seems that "Dean Song" can't even do the least arithmetic problems!
As soon as the fiat currency lacked stability, people rejoiced and immediately desperately sold fiat currency for gold. The morale of the army fluctuated, and many generals embezzled military salaries to buy gold. Not counting the huge amount of productive loans (most of which fell to the leather bag companies set up by the elite), the huge amount of money that flocked to Shanghai to speculate on gold alone was as high as more than 800 billion yuan. The central bank is listed at 4,000 yuan in fiat currency, which can buy 1 piece of gold. Then 800 billion yuan can buy 200 million pieces of gold, and a piece of gold is calculated according to 10 grams, and 200 million pieces of gold is 40 million taels. The gold of the central bank of the national government is less than 10 million taels at most, which is a drop in the bucket. As the price of gold in Shanghai was relatively low due to the sell-off by the central bank, it attracted investment predators from all over the country to gather and rush to buy.
The gold stock in Shanghai was quickly sold out, and the authorities hurriedly chartered planes to transport the gold from Chongqing to the rescue. But in the face of massive rush funds, there is no doubt that moths are fighting fires. On February 6, 1947, the gold price in Shanghai rose five times in one day, reaching 5.5 million, and the ratio of the US dollar to the fiat currency exceeded 10,000, which triggered a frenzy of speculation and panic buying in various places. The gold price in Nanjing, Guangzhou, Hankou, Chongqing and other places exceeded 6 million, and the Tianjin grey market reached 7 million. The situation got out of control, and even Chiang Kai-shek blamed Soong Ziwen. On February 15, Song Ziwen had no choice but to admit defeat and announce that the central bank would stop selling gold.
By February 1947, the central bank had sold a total of 3.53 million taels of gold, accounting for 60% of the gold in stock, and returned 998.9 billion yuan of legal currency. But at the same time, the fiat currency issued an additional 3,248.3 billion yuan, and the return of fiat currency from the sale of gold accounted for only 1/3 of it. The Nationalist Government lost most of its money, and prices not only failed to control them, but rose sharply. Fiat money without the backing of gold is like waste paper. Gold has increased sharply, fiat currencies have depreciated dramatically, and prices have skyrocketed. Many private enterprises have sold their factories and joined the ranks of speculating in gold, speculating in dollars, hoarding materials and reselling. The "hollowing out of industry" is getting worse and worse, triggering a domino effect.
On March 4, 1946, the Nationalist Government officially opened the foreign exchange market, set the exchange rate of fiat currency against the US dollar at 1 US dollar to 2,020 yuan of legal tender, and instructed the central bank to buy and sell foreign exchange without restrictions.
Suddenly, evil consequences emerged: A large number of foreign goods, mostly American goods, poured in, from automobiles and gasoline to flour, sugar, lipstick, leather shoes, and even cigarettes and nails, and foreign goods occupied the market!
Foreign goods are pouring in all over the world, and there is no doubt that a large amount of foreign exchange is required to buy, which is equivalent to the state using foreign exchange reserves to provide food, drink and clothing for the people. Enterprises are in recession, foreign exchange is in and out, and there is no way to eat it. Even the world's superpower, the United States, can't last long.
On February 5, 1947, Song Ziwen came up with a method of "export allowance and import levy" to encourage exports. However, it was strongly resisted by the United States and gave up halfway.
The third is a super loser. By 1944, China had paid about $2.5 billion in advances to the U.S. military, while the U.S. had paid only $250 million. "President Song" went so far as to take matters into his own hands and privately promised to compensate for this huge amount of expenses with the surplus supplies of the United States on the Pacific islands. The Kuomintang government not only did not collect the huge dollar cash it deserved, but instead discounted the freight and recovered a pile of scrap copper and iron, "losing the wife and the army."
The war of losing one's family
In 1947, Kong Xiangxi complained: "It is said that I am a loser and a country, and I left Song Ziwen 900 million US dollars and 60 million taels of gold, and now Song Ziwen has all gone." ”
In 1946, Soong Ziwen lost more than $500 million in foreign exchange reserves; Combined with the proceeds from the sale of Japanese assets and materials, the "big uncle" has lost at least $7.8 billion in the state treasury. Soong Ziwen's erroneous policies led to the economy entering a cold winter, and the economy was unable to make ends meet. In 1948, Wang Yunwu, the new Minister of Finance, revealed that the public treasury revenue and expenditure were only 5%.
Prices skyrocketed, spending was huge, and in order to keep the government running and the army spending, they had to work overtime day and night to print money. By the first half of 1948, the front line of the Nationalist Army was critical, and military expenditures had skyrocketed to 68.5 percent! The reform of the Golden Yuan could only be forcefully promoted, but the result was a fiasco, hyperinflation became more and more intense, and finally the economy collapsed, political bankruptcy, military collapse, and the country changed hands.
War is a contest for resources. In the face of overwhelming forces and other resources, no amount of strategic skill will help. During the War of Liberation, resources had already changed dramatically. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) led by the CCP is becoming increasingly powerful; The Kuomintang army was becoming more and more decayed and riddled with holes.
The traditional saying is that the PLA defeated Chiang Kai-shek's eight million troops with "millet plus rifles". But this is only ideological education and literary and artistic propaganda, which is very different from the facts. This kind of description also ignores the officers and soldiers who are working hard to provide logistical support such as military production, and the people who support the front line, and is extremely unfair to them.
First of all, the Kuomintang was far from having an army of 8 million. At that time, the national army had only more than 4.3 million regular troops, and only about 1 million were actually used for front-line operations. The officers and men of the People's Liberation Army do not need to be motivated by military salaries, but the national army cannot play without money. The limited financial resources can only sustain the operation of more than 100,000 troops, which is stretched. Due to the lack of military funds and the corruption of their commanders, the low remuneration of the national army is rare in the world. Even Chiang Kai-shek admitted at the 1946 army reorganization meeting that "most of the soldiers were not well fed and clothed, so that their faces were yellow and thin." ”
Second, the PLA doesn't just eat millet. The enlightened people donated a large amount of chickens, cattle, pigs and sheep, rice, white flour, baked cakes, vegetables and fruits and other foods to support the front line, fully ensuring the nutrition of the soldiers. On the battlefield, there were often officers and soldiers of the country who threw their guns over, and after surrendering, they hurried to Meimei to eat a meal of white steamed buns and stewed pork.
Third, the PLA is by no means fighting with "rifles" alone. In addition to the lack of aircraft, tanks, warships, heavy artillery, etc., the supply of other weapons is sufficient, and even far exceeds that of the national army, because of the strong military industry. For example, the Northeast Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has set up seven ordnance production bases, which not only effectively guarantee the operation of the million-strong army of the Northeast Field Army, but also effectively support the People's Liberation Army in Guannai. Taking the Liaoshen Campaign as an example, the Dongye Army had the most advanced logistical supply system and military production system, but the loss of weapons and equipment of the national army was difficult to make up, and the logistical supply of ammunition and food was also scarce. In the Tashan offensive and defensive battles, which decided the outcome of the Liaoshen Campaign, the PLA artillery units had more than 40,000 shells in reserve, and more than 100 artillery pieces with a caliber of 75 mm or more, exerted tremendous power on the battlefield. The number of artillery pieces of the national army is small, only a few dozen, and the shells are insufficient, and the strength is very different; In the Battle of Menglianggu, our army was superior in numbers, 640,000 to 450,000; The weapons were superior, and Huaye fired 33,000 shells and 2 million rounds of ammunition in three days. The Huaihai Battle consumed more than 20 million rounds of artillery shells and more than 2 million rounds of bullets. Su Yu said with deep feeling, "I would also like to thank Dalian for the shells from the new arsenal." Without an adequate supply of arms, no one can organize such a large-scale campaign!
Although the Nanking government had more arsenals (both built and received), production dropped significantly. Taking the "82 mortar shell" as an example, the highest annual output during the Anti-Japanese War was 2.14 million rounds, but in the first half of 1948, the monthly output was only about 100,000 rounds.
This is because military enterprises do not manufacture arms alone, but must rely on a complete industrial system to support them. For example, the Dalian Jianxin Company, the largest military base in the northeast of the Communist Party of China, is composed of a series of industrial systems such as iron and steel plants, machinery factories, chemical plants, foundries, metal factories, and boiler factories, with division of labor and cooperation. Soong Tzu-wen's erroneous economic policies led to the withering of enterprises in the Kuomintang and the great regression of industrial production, so that the military industrial enterprises could not be sustained, and they did not even recover to their pre-war levels. The Nationalist Army could only rely on the Japanese puppet munitions and imported raw materials it received, and even used US military materials. U.S. aid was intermittent, and after the three major battles, U.S. aid was cut off, and the Chiang dynasty was wiped out.
The big mistake is made, and it is too late to regret it
Chiang Kai-shek hated Song Ziwen, and criticized him many times in his diary for being "flying and domineering", "having no one in his eyes", "bringing disaster to the country and the people", "not learning and no skills, and ruining the country", and his misuse of Song is really "beyond remorse".
Chiang Kai-shek, who had lost his old capital and lived in Taiwan, realized that he had made serious mistakes in his economic policy of that year, and bitterly criticized Soong Ziwen in the report of the Seventh National Congress of the Kuomintang: "During the 36 years of the Republic of China, President Soong of the Executive Yuan used the funds of the central bank to reform the currency system without authorization, breaking the basic policy of the government to reform the currency system. In the midst of the social and psychological turmoil, the economic collapse cannot be saved. This is the most important link in the total collapse of the mainland's economy. ”
Song Ziwen misled the country, and in the final analysis, Chiang Kai-shek misled the country. He was nepotistic, not meritocratous, and took turns sitting in the village between his brother-in-law Kong Xiangxi and his brother-in-law Song Ziwen for a long time; It is too casual to promote high-ranking officials, such as promoting Wang Yunwu, a publisher with no experience in governing the country, to be the minister of finance; After a huge mistake occurred, Chiang Kai-shek was unable to correct his deviation in time because of his personal interests, and others criticized and appealed only to turn a deaf ear to the wind, and even retaliated. With such a system, it is unreasonable not to collapse.
(This article was originally published in the 10th issue of "Procuratorial Situation" in 2019)