Experts predict that next year, the S&P index will plummet by 86%, the NASDAQ index by 92%, and cryptocurrencies will be wiped out by 96%. U.S. home prices will plummet by more than 50 percent, and the U.S. economy will be worse next year than the Great Depression of the last century. What do you think, comrades? Is this expert right? Or is it grandstanding?
To be honest, this expert can only be said to be too expert, and even the number of declines is so finely predicted, the S&P is down 86%, why not 99%? The Nasdaq will plummet by 92%, why not 100%? Of course, the reason he gives is that the bull market in the US stock market is the result of 100% artificial money printing. For this reason, it is possible to predict that U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and housing prices will plummet so much. I also took it. To be honest, many experts have been predicting a recession in the United States and a crash in the U.S. stock market over the years. But what about the facts: The GDP growth rate of the United States in the third quarter of this year exceeded 5 percent, and the Dow Jones and other indices of the United States reached new highs and then new highs. What about the recession and the Great Crash?
So this fact is undoubtedly a slap in the face, even in 2008 such an economic crisis, the US stock Dow Jones index once fell to 6440 points, but now it has not only recovered lost ground, but also hit a new high. It has now reached 37,545 points, which is six times more than during the financial crisis. It is true that as this expert said, the prosperity of the US economy and the continuous rise of US stocks are all artificially created, and they are obtained through constant borrowing and constant money printing. But for this reason, it is not too arbitrary to predict a recession in the United States, and the collapse of the United States stock market. If it were an ordinary small country, according to this kind of continuous borrowing, the way of printing money would indeed have collapsed long ago. But why is the United States still alive and well? There are several reasons.
First, the United States holds the core of global science and technology and occupies the highest end of the global supply chain. Although many manufacturing enterprises in the United States have relocated in recent years due to high local labor costs, the research and development of high-tech enterprises is still in the country. After all, science and technology are the primary productive forces, and mastering the most core and cutting-edge technology means that you can control the entire industrial chain and obtain the most high-end profits of the entire industrial chain. In the case of Apple, its production line is located in China, India and other countries with low labor costs, but its R&D center is in the United States. For an Apple phone, at least half of the profits are shared with Apple. Many other assembly plants such as Foxconn and parts suppliers share the remaining profits. Others are tired and tired to do things with so many people, but they can only get low-end and pitiful profits. The majority of the money has gone to companies like Apple that have mastered core technologies. Therefore, the reason why the United States is doing everything possible to suppress and curb the development of China's science and technology lies here. Whoever masters the technology will be able to control the entire industrial chain and obtain the core and high-end benefits of the industrial chain.
Second, the consumption-based economic structure of the United States. Why the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times in a row since last year, and the risk-free rate has reached 5.25%, but the economy is still growing positively, especially the GDP growth rate in the third quarter reached an astonishing 5.2%, the reason is that the consumption in the tourist season is driven. Last year, the per capita GDP of the United States was 76,400 US dollars, and the per capita net financial assets exceeded 250,000 euros, equivalent to nearly 2 million yuan. The fact that the per capita wealth means that the individual's spending power is very strong, and the purchasing power of the dollar is strong. Consumption pulls up, and the effect is very obvious. In addition, since most of the wealth of US residents is in the stock market, successive administrations have paid special attention to the maintenance of US stocks, and Wall Street has been consulted on various policies. That's why U.S. stocks can go a hundred years of slow bulls. A rising stock market means that residents' wealth is increasing, and consumption can rise again. So do you think the U.S. stock market will collapse? Will the U.S. government let the U.S. stock market collapse?