The luckiest team in the West entered the playoffs with one foot

The NBA regular season has entered the final 2 weeks of the final stage, the Eastern Conference is clearly hierarchical, the Celtics lock the first, the Bucks take the second is not much suspense, the Cavaliers + Knicks + Magic are fighting for the third, and the Pacers + Heat + 76ers are fighting for the sixth. In contrast, the situation in the West is changing every day, but there are two essences that will not change: first, in the top three, the Timberwolves + Thunder will try to compete for the first place, especially the Timberwolves, they have to buy time for Towns to return (playing the eighth seed is the latest to start, and the eighth seed has two physical weaknesses in the play-off games). Second, the teams in the play-off period, this time period, on the one hand, cannot easily lose, on the other hand, they must maintain the health of the team's core framework.

This season, the four traffic teams have their own problems. The Clippers initially did not match Harden and Wei Shao, and after experiencing a sweet period in December and January, Tyronn Lue begged for change and diluted Harden's possession, and the Clippers had a record of only 12 wins and 12 losses after reaching the top of the West. After the Lakers won the midseason championship, coach Ham adjusted the lineup in various ways and dug a big hole for himself, until it was determined that Russell + Reaves + Hachimura + James + thick eyebrows would be back on track. Here in the Warriors, Kerr not only suppressed young people, but even Curry's time was infinitely compressed. Including the Suns, their biggest problem is the lack of field control. Everyone has a scripture that is difficult to read, but there is still hope for the playoffs. But there's one team that's pathetic.

Since Mike Brown became head coach of the Kings, the team has played two consecutive seasons with a win rate of more than 57%, and the Kings also finished third in the West last season. But near the end of the season, they have suffered heavy blows! First of all, the team's young swingman Huerter suffered a shoulder dislocation + rotator cuff tear injury, and was forced to undergo right shoulder surgery and be reimbursed for the season! In addition, Monk, the King's backup engine and the favorite for the season's Sixth Person, suffered a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee and will have to be reviewed in four weeks at the earliest, what does that mean? At that time, the first round of the playoffs is over! But can the Kings still make the playoffs? I'll give you two very simple examples, the Kings have played the Mavericks in their first two games this season, winning by 16 points once and by 5 points once.

With Huerter's previous consecutive absences and the fall of Monk, the Kings have recently played against the Mavericks twice, losing by 36 points and losing by 4 points. If the King is described as a car, Fox is the engine, Sabonis is the gearbox, but Monk fell and the gas was broken, Huerter was reimbursed for the season, and the propeller shaft was broken! The second example, in the playoffs last season, although the Kings lost to the Warriors in the first round, Monk averaged 19 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game, and the team's No. 2 scoring point! These two people fell, and the Kings no longer had a swingman to use! One is the Kings and the other is the Suns, although they are still 1.5-2 wins ahead of the Lakers, but the Suns' remaining schedule, the average winning rate of opponents is 63.2%, and the remaining games of the Kings, the average winning rate of opponents is 54.9%, and it is only a matter of time before these two teams decline.

According to the modeling calculations given by the American media "BR", the probability of the Kings falling out of the top eight is 22%, the probability of the Suns falling out of the top eight is 27%, and the probability of the Lakers entering the top eight is more than 35%! The Lakers are really the luckiest team in the West, two aspects, one is that the Nuggets have no intention of competing for the first place in the West, because the Suns, who have restrained them the most this season, are likely to be squeezed to the seventh seed or even the eighth seed. Second, the Lakers' remaining schedule is 45.8% difficult, the lowest difficulty in the entire Western Conference play-off range!

The road trip is indeed difficult, but the opponent is the Nets + Raptors + Wizards, unless the Lakers really don't want to win! Back at home, if they can win the Timberwolves and Warriors, the Lakers can basically enter the top eight or even seventh, and get two lives in the play-offs (home court advantage). The key is here, once the Lakers reach the seventh or eighth place, whether it is facing the exhausted Suns or the Kings who are missing two key players, the Lakers' chances of winning will become even greater. The Kings are indeed the Lakers' sufferers, but three of the four games the Lakers have lost this season have been opened up in the transition period. In the absence of Monk and Huerter, the pressure on the Lakers has been reduced by 40%! Needless to say, in this kind of life-and-death game, you can always believe in James! That is to say, the Lakers have the opportunity to take advantage of the right time and place to get the No. 7 seed, and there is a high probability of facing the Thunder with a handle!

To be honest, it is actually difficult for the Lakers to challenge for the championship this season, because the Nuggets, as the defending champions, are still standing in the way. But the Lakers' more realistic goal at the end of the regular season is to get a playoff ticket and seek a favorable position in the play-in tournament. Another statistic that is easy to overlook, the Lakers have played key moments this season (within 5 points in the last 5 minutes), with a record of 22 wins and 9 losses, a winning rate of 71%, and the second in the league! I think the Lakers really met the Nuggets, and then they can only admit it! But before that, no team can stop the Lakers, it's up to the Nuggets themselves!