Preface
On March 26-27, the Dutch prime minister visited China and said that he would "actively deal with the export control of lithography machines", while on the other hand, the lithography giant ASML said that it would move out of the Netherlands.
Has the Dutch government lost control of ASML, and who should we trust in the face of two voices?
The Prime Minister of the Netherlands came to China to express his friendship
On March 26 and 27, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Jeffrey van Leven paid a working visit to China at the invitation of the mainland.
It can be said that during this visit to China, both the Dutch "managers" and "account managers" came, and this kind of battle still surprised me a little.
After all, under pressure from the United States, the Dutch government has restricted the country's lithography machine giant ASML from providing advanced lithography equipment to China since January 1 this year.
Although the Dutch official has recently responded very positively to the issue of the export of lithography machines, another voice has made netizens question.
That is, at the beginning of March this year, before the Netherlands came to show goodwill, the lithography machine giant ASML had already taken the lead: due to the political interference of the United States and the Dutch government, the tireless ASML decided to "move".
Then I can't help but have a question: I doubt the sincerity of your words, but I doubt the weight of your words!
So, in the face of the angry ASML, can the Dutch government still "manage" it?
Angry lithography giants who left home
According to foreign media reports, on March 6, the chief executive officer (CEO) of the European lithography giant ASML (ASML) Wennink said: "There is a gap between what the business community is doing and what the political community thinks is necessary."
Constantly at the mercy of a political weapon, Asmir believes that moving out of the Netherlands is the right way forward.
As soon as the news was released, the Dutch government was "numb" on the spot, just like the usually willful people among lovers suddenly heard "break up", and they were at a loss and hurriedly went to apologize.
But the same as proposing to break up, I didn't decide to "say goodbye" to you today, but the negative emotions that have accumulated step by step have just "saved enough" today.
Since the United States began to coerce the Netherlands into targeting China in chip technology, ASML has been suffering serious losses in terms of economic gains and development space.
According to the data, in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone, ASML's net sales reached 7.2 billion euros and its net profit reached 2 billion euros.
However, due to the overall positive market trend, ASML's estimated net sales for the first quarter of 2024 are only 5 billion to 5.5 billion euros.
It feels like a boiled duck flying away, and this shortfall of nearly 2 billion euros is the export control from the Netherlands.
ASML's financial officer said bluntly: export controls will affect 10%-15% of sales in the Chinese market.
In addition to the direct economic losses, with the fermentation of export controls, Sino-Dutch trade will inevitably continue to be blocked, once China begins to "counteract", whether it is the supply of raw materials, or the transfer of talents or even recall, it will have an immeasurable and sustained negative impact on the development of ASML.
"Cutting off people's financial resources is like killing their parents", and the policy adopted by the Netherlands against China in order to collude with the United States is already "hurting the muscles and bones" for ASML.
But that's not all, the Dutch attitude towards immigrants is now used as a bargaining chip for the party and government, and as a multinational company in the field of cutting-edge technology, ASML is highly dependent on foreign workers, from researchers and engineers to workers on production floors, 40% of whom are foreigners.
Once the immigration policy changes, it is almost equivalent to "tearing down Asml".
ASML, as a "leading enterprise" in the Netherlands, has a market value of nearly 365 billion euros, ranking third in Europe and rising rapidly.
It stands to reason that this kind of "national treasure" should have enjoyed various preferential treatment and support from the government's policies, but now it has become a bargaining chip at the mercy of politicians and even a "dowry" to please the United States.
It's also true that the table was flipped and stumbled, and it was understandable.
The Netherlands and its neighbors
In the face of ASML's "moving statement", the Dutch authorities immediately admitted it and hurriedly "said good things at both ends".
One of them, as mentioned above, is to come to China first to show goodwill, and pave the way for the subsequent adjustment of export controls.
On the other hand, it is to "give the green light" to ASML's development in the Netherlands.
The Dutch government first promised to directly allocate 2.5 billion euros to ASML for "renovation", and even expressed its willingness to reduce its tax burden.
At the same time, according to people familiar with the matter, the government also intends to ease talent restrictions on ASML and "does not necessarily support" the U.S. attempt to further restrict and isolate China.
However, these seemingly lucrative "delaying tactics" may not be able to convince ASML to stay, because for this "prime" top manufacturer, the suitors have already broken through the threshold.
Everyone also put forward a variety of preferential policies, "as long as you are willing to come, the conditions are up to you." ”
Therefore, in the face of the Dutch government's retention, Asmir's response for the time being was only "Thank you to the government, I'll take a look." ”
It is also rumored that France, which has a relatively independent foreign policy, is currently leading the battle for ASML.
Regardless of who ends up in the end, once ASML moves out of the Netherlands, it means that the situation between Europe and the United States, which has always been at least superficially united, will be completely broken.
And once Europe and the United States "break up", the trade routes between China and Europe will be reopened, so is there a high probability that Europe and the United States will break up?
Europe and the United States "broke up", and China received
In order to restrict China's development, it is a well-known fact that the United States has constantly coerced Europe, Japan and other younger brothers to target China together.
However, due to the increasing "finger-pointing" and forcible intervention of the United States, the EU countries have gradually begun to show dissatisfaction.
And ASML's "moving" rebellion is neither the first nor the last.
Long before ASML "moved", Shell and Unilever had already left the Netherlands.
Now, in the face of the coercion of the United States, the Dutch "elbow outward" behavior not only casts a shadow on Dutch companies, but also makes European companies feel anxious:
"Are we at the mercy of the United States?"
"What does relying on the United States bring to the EU?"
As the Russian-Ukrainian war continues, this anxiety is spreading more and more in Europe, and the United States, which kept saying that it was "covering" Europe, not only "watched from the wall", but even took the opportunity of the war to raise energy prices and make a lot of war money.
With the release of the results of the first "Public Opinion Survey on Europe-US Relations" launched by the Global Times, the dissatisfaction of the European people with the United States has become apparent.
As many as eighty percent of respondents expressed anger and helplessness about the United States' practice of taking advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war to "blackmail" Europe economically. Less than 10 percent of respondents believe that Europe is "independent" today.
It can be seen that the attitude of the whole of Europe towards the United States is constantly wavering.
The first to "oppose water" in the United States was France, and it was France's "anti-water" behavior that showed ASML the country's "backbone" and thus occupied a leading position in the competition for ASML's "new home".
Under the premise that the United States continues to "knock" on the EU's ban on too close relations with China, French President Emmanuel Macron resolutely came to China to personally negotiate business cooperation with China, and finally "returned with a full load".
Among them, a one-time aircraft order of 21 billion US dollars was signed, which directly shocked the whole of Europe:
"Is China so rich now?"
"It turns out that it is the United States that paints the pie, and China is the God of Wealth who gives real money directly. ”
The proceeds of Macron's trip not only solved the economic crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in France, but also gave a "slap in the face" to European countries and re-examined their relations with China and the United States.
And now the Netherlands, which is on fire in its backyard, must have thought of how Macron got through the difficulties by coming to China to "solicit sponsorship", and he was inspired.
It's a pity that the icing on the cake can never be compared to sending charcoal in the snow, and when something happens, I think of asking China to help "say good things", even if China is generous, ASML, who is already angry, may not be willing to listen.
But the good news is that ASML moving or not is not bad news for China.
If you move to France, France is now in the "honeymoon period" of trade with China, and it is relatively easy to open up foreign trade channels.
If it ends up staying in the Netherlands, then the Netherlands has already made a commitment to ASML, and the export of lithography machines will inevitably interfere with less.
Then I believe that in the near future, ASML's most advanced lithography machine technology will once again come to China.
Once it comes into contact with the most advanced lithography machine technology, China will also quickly "absorb" and "transform" to inject more power into China's self-developed chips.
epilogue
Although the current situation seems to be improving for China, as the US election draws to a close, it is inevitable that the US will launch a new round of sanctions against China.
And the capitalist countries have always been mercenary, today they may smile at you, and tomorrow they may turn their faces and deny others because someone else throws another bone.
Therefore, while maintaining an open and welcoming attitude towards European countries and enterprises, we must not relax our vigilance and must firmly follow the road of self-research and development of science and technology.
The more Europe and the United States suppress us, the more it shows that we persist in the correctness and necessity of development, and only when we continue to make breakthroughs in our own technology and continue to develop science and technology can we not give others a handle and let others slaughter us.
Only then can China become truly strong.
Resources
ASML wants to "move"? The Netherlands is busy keeping - Global Times
Dutch Prime Minister Rutte visited China to strengthen cooperation and coordination, saying that "decoupling and breaking the chain" is not a policy option for the Dutch government
ASML's fourth-quarter results were slightly higher than expected: the Chinese market is growing strongly, and about 10% of sales are expected to be affected this year - The Paper
Global Public OpinionThe first "Poll on Europe-US Relations": After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europeans' doubts about the United States have risen-Global Network
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