According to the information released by Taiwan's defense department, the Taiwan military will conduct live-fire exercises on Kinmen Island, Lieyu and other places in April, during which the surrounding sea and air space will be controlled and guarded. At present, mainland coast guard vessels have been carrying out regular patrols in the Xiamen-Jin waters, and the so-called "forbidden and restricted waters" in the mouth of the Taiwan authorities no longer exist, and the Taiwan authorities have completely lost their "jurisdiction" over the Xiamen-Jin waters.
As a result, the Taiwan military chose to hold a military exercise in Kinmen, which it called routine normal training, in an attempt to "prove" that it still has control over the Xiamen-Jinmen waters, and to deny that it was targeted. In this regard, Chen Binhua, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, directly pointed out whether it was a "routine" training or a "targeted" provocation, and the DPP authorities knew very well. He further said that the mainland will pay close attention to the movements of the Taiwan military in Kinmen, and if it provokes and provokes trouble, it will surely be defeated.
Immediately afterwards, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, also stressed that there is no so-called "forbidden and restricted waters" in the Xiamen-Jin waters. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is paying close attention to the situation at sea, making full preparations to deal with emergencies, and resolutely maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
The successive statements made by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and the Ministry of National Defense are undoubtedly warning the Taiwan authorities that their minds have long been seen through by the mainland. The mainland will be highly vigilant against the Taiwan military exercises and will be fully prepared to deal with any possible provocations.
Judging from the location, the Taiwan military's exercise area is too close to the mainland, especially Shiyu Island, which is less than 4 kilometers away from Xiamen, which is a serious provocation to the mainland and may also further worsen the security situation in Kinmen and its surrounding areas. In terms of timing, the Taiwan authorities chose to launch the exercise at a time when Lai Ching-te was about to take office as the leader of the Taiwan region, and it seemed that they were building momentum for Lai Ching-te. Either way, it's clearly provocative.
Zhang Yanting, former deputy commander of Taiwan's Air Force, hit the nail on the head in his analysis, pointing out that the DPP authorities may try to use the live-fire exercises of the Kinmen defenders to replace Taiwan's "Coast Guard" by military means to drive away people from the sea area, so as to prevent mainland coast guard ships from entering specific waters.
The mainland has already warned that it does not want to see any rash behavior that could lead to an escalation of the situation. Zhang Yanting also speculated that if a mainland fishing boat or a law enforcement coast guard vessel did enter the so-called "prohibited and restricted waters" in April, whether Taiwan's "Coast Guard" dared to take action would become a testing point. If the Taiwan side dares to go further, a conflict will be inevitable. It should be noted that the Taiwanese army has less than 3,000 defenders in Kinmen, which is far away from the main island of Taiwan, and they may face great risks in the event of a conflict.
In addition to warnings, the mainland's actions are also being carried out in an orderly manner. On March 27, the Fujian Maritime Safety Administration, the East China Sea Navigation Support Center and the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration jointly announced that they would launch a joint patrol in the waters on the western side of the Taiwan Strait (in the direction of Kinmen). According to the official notice, the move is aimed at maintaining the navigable environment and order of the waters, ensuring the safety of water traffic and the safety of people's lives and property.
But a closer look reveals a big difference. First of all, the range of the cruise, including the Xiajin Strait and the waters near Kinmen, is clearly different from the previous so-called "crossing the center line of the strait", indicating that the mainland's attitude and strategy toward security in the Taiwan Strait are changing. Moreover, the patrol is not only participated by the Fujian Coast Guard, but also joined the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration, suggesting that more maritime departments may be involved in the security of the Taiwan Strait in the future.
At the same time, according to information released by the Taiwan military, on 27 March, 14 sorties of Continental Army planes crossed the center line of the strait and entered the airspace in the north, southwest, and southeast, forming a situation of encirclement on all sides. Zhang Yanting believes that this series of actions by the mainland is "closing the net" and intends to replace verbal warnings with actual actions. This change in tactics shows that the mainland has become more resolute in its attitude toward resolving the Taiwan issue.
With regard to the mainland's successive attacks, the DPP authorities continue to choose to tackle tough problems. A few days ago, Guan Biling, "chairman of the Taiwan Strait Committee," once again forcefully declared that the Taiwan Strait Patrol will continue to "enforce the law" in the waters of the Taiwan Strait, and that "we will administer according to law" those who should be expelled and those who should be inspected or detained.
At a time when the situation in the Taiwan Strait is tense, Ma Ying-jeou announced that he will visit the mainland in early April. The purpose of the trip is seen as an attempt to ease cross-strait tensions, and he will visit Guangdong, Shaanxi, Beijing, and other places. It is worth noting that although people in the "green camp" on the island have continued to "smear" Ma Ying-jeou's behavior, Tsai Ing-wen's office responded that it had received Ma Ying-jeou's declaration of visit, and respected his personal itinerary plan, and will contact relevant units in the future to provide necessary assistance on the safety and other matters of this trip. Chen Chien-jen, head of Taiwan's administrative agency, also said that he respects Ma Ying-jeou's personal itinerary planning, and that the Taiwan authorities will provide necessary assistance to Ma Ying-jeou's relevant security protection requirements, which is consistent with Tsai Ing-wen's office.
Some analysts believe that this attitude reflects the complicated psychology of the Taiwan authorities in handling cross-strait issues. On the one hand, they want to use the cross-strait issue to build momentum for Lai Qingde on the island; on the other hand, they are afraid that excessive actions may trigger strong countermeasures from the mainland. Against this background, Lai Qingde's attitude has also changed significantly.
Obviously, the series of forceful measures taken by the mainland against Taiwan have already produced results to a certain extent. In the face of pressure from the mainland, the DPP authorities seem to be showing signs of backing down. However, in view of the past behavior of the DPP authorities, it is expected that cross-strait relations will face various challenges and obstacles in the future. However, the mainland will not stop there, will make steady progress at its own pace, and will tell the DPP authorities through stronger actions: Seeking independence by force is a dead end!