What is Japan's intention in seeking to join AUKUS?

What is Japan's intention to seek to join the "Aukus"?

2024-03-28 10:11

Source: China.com

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According to Japan's Nikkei Asia, citing US officials, the United States is negotiating with Britain and Australia and plans to invite Japan to carry out military-technical cooperation within the framework of the "Aukus" agreement. Previously, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Marles had publicly stated that he expected Japan to participate in the research and development of its "second pillar" related technologies under the cooperation framework of the "Aukus" alliance. Although many parties have not indicated that they will directly invite Japan to join the "Aukus" security agreement, inviting Japan to join in military-technical cooperation has in fact opened a door for Japan to break through the "military seal."

The "Aukus" alliance has formed "two pillars"

The "AUKUS" alliance refers to the fact that on September 15, 2021, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia announced the establishment of a trilateral security partnership, the so-called "AUKUS" security agreement, and formally signed the first technical cooperation agreement under the mechanism on November 22 of the same year, against the background of widespread doubts and condemnation by the international community. According to the agreement, Australia not only canceled the contract it had signed with France for the purchase of 12 conventionally powered submarines with a total value of 90 billion Australian dollars, but also planned to buy eight nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and the United Kingdom. As the "first pillar" of the "Aukus" alliance, Australia's nuclear submarine program is expected to cost $368 billion to formally establish a nuclear submarine force for the Australian Navy by 2055.

It is worth noting that the emergence of the "first pillar" was strongly opposed by the international community. Australia's nuclear submarine cooperation with the United States and the United Kingdom through the "Aukus" security agreement has set a bad precedent in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) involving the export of nuclear materials and technology from nuclear-weapon states to non-nuclear-weapon states.

On this basis, the "Aukus" alliance also began the "second pillar" program "with great ambition". According to the plan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia will cooperate in the field of advanced disruptive weapons technology, focusing on promoting the coordinated development and application of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hypersonic, and unmanned weapon platforms, and promoting their transformation into combat effectiveness as soon as possible. In addition, along with the expansion of the field of cooperation, the "AUKUS" alliance also plans to strengthen all-round cooperation in the fields of cross-domain joint testing of weapons and equipment, intelligence information and data sharing, and so on.

The construction of the "defense coterie" is accelerating

Under the pretext of fancy Japan's huge technological advantages in artificial intelligence, hypersonic and other fields, Mars publicly stated that he expects Japan to participate in the research and development of technologies related to the "second pillar" under the cooperation framework of the "Aukus" alliance.

As a matter of fact, since the establishment of the "Aukus" alliance, officials in the United States, Britain, and Australia have advocated expanding the number of members through the "3+1" or "3+N" method, and Japan has become the best candidate for "new candidates in the audition." According to a previous report by Japan's Sankei Shimbun, the United States, Britain, and Australia have tentatively invited Japan to join the "Aukus" alliance on a number of informal occasions. In December 2022, when Japan and Australia held the "2+2" meeting between the foreign ministers and defense ministers, Marles expressed his hope that Japan would join the "Aukus" alliance. Former Japanese Prime Minister and Vice President of the Liberal Democratic Party Taro Aso also vainly stated during his visit to Australia in November 2023 that he hoped Japan would join the "Aukus" alliance.

Joining "Aukus" is actually in line with Japan's "careful thinking". In recent years, Japan has constantly sought to shake off the shackles of the "military seal" it has had since World War II, with the intention of breaking through the "exclusive defense" and the shackles of the "pacifist constitution" to achieve its goal of becoming a "political and military power." In December 2022, the Japanese government adopted a new version of the "Three Security Documents", abandoning the principle of "exclusive defense" and lifting the ban on so-called "counterattack capabilities" and "long-range strike capabilities". At the end of 2023, the Japanese government significantly revised the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and its implementation guidelines, and even allowed Japan to export the finished weapons it produces and assembles to relevant countries. Starting in 2023, the Japanese government plans to double its annual defense spending as a percentage of GDP in the next five years, and at the same time actively play the role of "spearhead" in the "Asia-Pacific transformation of NATO", aiming to strengthen cooperation with the United States and NATO through military science and technology, weapons and equipment, exercises and training, and promote greater participation of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces in overseas military operations.

As early as 2022, Japan made it clear in its National Security Strategy that it would further enhance its military capabilities by strengthening the U.S.-Japan military alliance and military interaction with so-called "like-minded countries." At present, Japan's "defense clique" with the United States, Britain, and Australia has taken shape. Aside from the U.S.-Japan military alliance, Japan signed Reciprocal Access Agreements with Australia in January 2022 and the United Kingdom in January 2023, which effectively allow each other's troops to be stationed on each other's territory, while also planning and conducting larger, more complex military exercises. In October 2022, Japan and Australia signed a new version of the Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Security and Security, which clearly states that Japan and Australia are "natural partners" and will focus on strengthening military cooperation in space, cyber, intelligence sharing, and joint training in the next 10 years. In addition to the Information Protection Agreement and the Agreement on Mutual Provision of Materials and Services with the United Kingdom, Japan also signed an agreement with the United Kingdom and Italy in December 2023 to develop next-generation fighter jets.

We need to be highly vigilant against the "NATO" conspiracy in the Asia-Pacific region

The "Aukus" alliance looks like "thunder is loud", but in fact it is "rainy"; judging from the huge "first pillar" nuclear submarine program of the year, it is still a dead letter after many years. To date, Australia's huge funding for the purchase and construction of nuclear submarines has not yet been secured, and many other details related to the specific construction of nuclear submarines are still far away. Even if Australia invites Japan to join the "second pillar", there is still a lot of uncertainty about whether it can be successfully promoted.

Whether it is the establishment of the "Aukus" alliance or the active involvement of Japan in "joining forces," the real mastermind behind it is the United States. Since the Obama administration proposed the "Asia-Pacific rebalance" strategy, the United States' strategic focus has gradually shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, and the Trump and Biden administrations seem to have different versions of the "Indo-Pacific strategy", but in fact they are strengthening the Asia-Pacific region's containment of China. In particular, since the Biden administration took office, the United States has spared no effort to promote the "Asia-Pacific NATO", trying to build NATO into a tool for the United States to achieve strategic transformation, and at the same time further strengthening the "Five Eyes Alliance" of the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, peddling the "quadrilateral mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, cobbling together the "trilateral security partnership" of the United States, Britain and Australia and the trilateral military alliance of the United States, Japan and South Korea, and tightening the bilateral military alliances between the United States and Japan, the United States and Australia, and the United States and South Korea The pace of exploration is bound to have a far-reaching impact on peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, and deserves great attention and vigilance.

Director: Xue Lisheng

Producer: Cai Xiaojuan

Curator: Xie Luying

Character: 瑷敏

Reviewer: Xie Luying, Zhang Yanling

Produced by the News Commentary Department of China.com