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Recently, NIO's traffic has been very high, but the stock price has fallen with Chinese concept stocks, and there are voices that sing more and more, and some people even mention that NIO in 2019 has many similarities with today, and there may be new investment depressions.
From 2020 to 2021, NIO's stock price soared to a record high, while in 2024, the stock price has reached a record low in the past four years, does it mean that new investment opportunities have emerged? At the same time, the discussion about NIO is more about whether the price reduction of BaaS can bring about a large volume? How much improvement can the huge investment of Middle Eastern capital bring to NIO? Can a series of battery swap cooperation quickly reduce the cost of NIO?
Whether NIO's fundamentals are good or bearish in the long term is worth in-depth analysis. It may be difficult to see the answer in a short period of time, but looking back at the many recent news of NIO, it can be seen that many things that are happening at the moment will have a profound impact on NIO's fundamentals.
A meaningful new hand
Recently, the dispute between China and the West over new energy vehicles has been very hot, directly rising to the stage of affecting trade, and the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs specially tweeted for this purpose, clarifying the open attitude of Chinese automobiles. Someone found out that she had a picture of the car of the NIO factory.
The picture of the car appeared in the tweet of the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which shows that NIO represents the new face of China's new energy vehicle companies on such occasions.
The Economic Daily recently published an article titled "A Rational Look at the Losses of New Energy Vehicle Companies", directly naming NIO and affirming its investment and achievements in R&D. Coincidentally, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission also publicly stated that the development of the new energy vehicle industry in the mainland has a long way to go, and brands including NIO have set an example.
Being recognized by national ministries and commissions and central media one after another is likely to be NIO's entry into the main road of national new energy development. This can be seen in the battery replacement.
On January 4 this year, the four departments issued the "Implementation Opinions on Strengthening the Integration and Interaction of New Energy Vehicles and Power Grids", proposing to give full play to the important role of new energy vehicles in the electrochemical energy storage system and support the construction of new energy systems and new power systems, which is obviously beneficial to NIO, an enterprise with the technical capabilities and extensive layout of storage, charging and swapping stations.
The clarity of the policy has made battery swapping the next mainstream energy supplement mode, so there are state-owned assets directly ended......
State-owned assets will support battery swapping
State-owned assets entered the market and directly supported NIO's battery swap. On January 11, Anhui Energy Group, Anhui Provincial Traffic Control Group and NIO signed the "Strategic Cooperation Agreement on Jointly Promoting the Construction of an Open and Shared Storage, Charging and Swapping System" in Hefei, and Zhongan Energy was established on the same day. The signatories will jointly support Zhongan Energy to build 1,000 storage, charging and swapping integrated battery swap stations.
A month later, NIO ushered in another heavyweight cooperation. China Southern Power Grid Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. signed a cooperation agreement with NIO to cooperate in the fields of virtual power plants, battery swap station business, battery cascade and recycling, and open up the interconnection of vehicles and networks. This cooperation is very meaningful for NIO's battery swap station, which can directly participate in the regulation of the power grid, and carry out energy-based peak regulation services and power-based frequency modulation services.
When it comes to battery swap technology, although it is not an invention of NIO, NIO has continuously upgraded it and made it its own unique characteristic business through long-term operation. Of course, because of the excessive investment in the early stage, everyone generally doubts whether NIO's battery swap is feasible, and they are worried that this asset-heavy operation model will be difficult to sustain.
However, with the support of national policies, the industry has seen the trend of battery swapping becoming the mainstream energy supplement, and also recognized NIO's first-mover advantage in this regard. Since November last year, state-owned and private giants such as Changan, Geely, JAC, and Chery have successively reached battery swap cooperation with NIO, which means that the value of NIO's battery swap has been recognized by the industry, and NIO's battery swap system has officially changed from private domain exclusive to public service.
At present, NIO's battery swap presents a path of "infrastructure first, internal closed-loop, full-scene verification, and opening to the outside world". With a series of cooperation, the cost of NIO's battery swap station construction will also drop rapidly.
According to the logic of battery swap construction publicly mentioned by Li Bin, the founder of NIO, the construction of battery swap network requires a large amount of upfront investment, because it has the same principle as the "cloud service" in the Internet industry, which requires a large amount of investment in the early stage and a certain return period, but once it is made into a scale, it can effectively dilute the operating costs and form the industry entry threshold and commercial value.
BaaS新政如何边降价边赚钱?
Recently, NIO has done something that has sparked a high degree of discussion in the industry, that is, the price adjustment of BaaS battery rental services.
The price adjustment of BaaS services lowers the threshold for starting with the whole vehicle, allowing users to spend less money to purchase high-end models and services, and at the same time, it also allows NIO to increase the bargaining space in addition to products. Some media said that this is a major "killer feature" for NIO to deal with this round of price cuts, which not only meets the expectations of new car owners for price, but also protects the rights and interests of old car owners, and it is difficult for other manufacturers to copy.
What's more, after the threshold for buying a car is lowered, users who purchase NIO will receive a lifetime warranty on the battery. By swapping the battery, NIO users can replace a fully charged healthy battery in three minutes, without the trouble of 8 years of battery warranty, and there is no need to worry about battery life decay. For example, if a user owns a 10-year-old NIO car with a mileage of 200,000 kilometers, he can still exchange it for a healthy battery.
Different from the user's concern, the industry's focus is that the reason why NIO's BaaS adjustment has attracted attention is that it uses a price reduction model to benefit both users and manufacturers, which is an innovation based on technology and business models. This trick of NIO can also be said to be a dimensionality reduction attack.
For NIO, the operation of BaaS can also bring benefits. NIO can directly generate revenue through the price difference between the cost of battery procurement and battery transfer, as well as BaaS operating expenses. In addition, through BaaS, the property rights of the battery are transferred to the asset company when the user buys the car, and NIO can recover the battery cost at one time, reducing the capital occupation and capital cost.
Technological dividends are released
Since 2016, NIO has invested more than 43 billion yuan in R&D and obtained more than 8,500 global patents.
Of course, high R&D investment will make NIO's profitability not so good-looking, which will make NIO receive some criticism and be regarded as "spending money indiscriminately". However, recently, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, affirmed NIO's R&D investment in a public speech: "NIO invests 10 billion yuan in R&D a year, which is reasonable. ”
In fact, NIO has entered a period of return on technology dividends, which has been reflected in NIO's gross profit margin. In the fourth quarter of 2023, NIO's gross vehicle gross profit margin reached 11.9%, reaching double digits for two consecutive quarters, which is already at the leading level in China's pure electric industry.
In addition, NIO is about to release a new brand for the mass market in the second quarter, so the technology platform capabilities that NIO has invested heavily in will be released to a greater extent, such as intelligent driving and cockpit experience technology, and intelligent chassis systems can be quickly transferred to the new brand, which will bring significant cost reductions and R&D efficiency improvements through scale effects.
It is reported that the first product of NIO's new brand is the Tesla Model Y, which will be launched in the third quarter and begin large-scale delivery in the fourth quarter. Some professionals said that the new brand will have a more competitive advantage, and the ability to swap batteries alone can allow users to avoid the anxiety of mileage and battery warranty at the same time.
Unusual praise
Entering 2024, the challenges faced by China's new energy vehicle industry in the process of globalization will intensify. At the stage of "lane change and overtaking", China's new energy vehicle companies must continue to improve their core technological innovation capabilities if they want to maintain their leading edge.
Not long ago, Zhang Yuzhuo, director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, said publicly in an interview: "For the three central automobile enterprises, it is necessary to conduct a separate assessment of the new energy vehicle business, and no longer assess the current profits of the enterprise, but assess its technology, assess its market share, and assess its future development." ”
Under this general situation, NIO insists on independent research and development, which is in line with the country's basic direction for the development of the new energy vehicle industry.
In an article published a few days ago, the central media "Economic Daily" also recognized that Weilai adheres to the self-research of core technologies, believes that Weilai is a representative of new quality productivity, and emphasized: For the current new energy vehicle companies, the phased loss is not terrible, but the real terrible thing is the lack of core technology and the market competitive advantage built by it, because this is the decisive factor in promoting corporate profitability.
The unusual tone and praise all point to NIO's technological achievements, including the 12-item full-stack technology layout of smart electric vehicles.
Long-term positive fundamentals
Now when it comes to NIO, many people will talk about 2019. That year, NIO encountered the most serious development crisis since its founding, and the situation was once extremely grim, and the remarks that "NIO is going bankrupt" were rampant, and Li Bin was called "the most miserable person in 2019" by the media. Some people also say that the current NIO is more like 2019, with no rapid growth in overall sales and no fundamental solution to losses.
Even Li Bin himself said last year that if the work is unfavorable, 2024 may become 2019 again.
However, a rational analysis will find that this does not mean that NIO is completely out of play. Even after experiencing 2019, NIO also reversed in 2020 and got the investment of the Hefei government.
And in comparison, the current situation of NIO is better than in 2019, in addition to the expansion of the basic disk, the performance in the high-end market is also relatively solid. Many media have exposed such a set of data: in the second half of 2023, NIO will have a market share of more than 40% of electric vehicles with an average transaction price of more than 300,000 yuan in China, ranking first. From July to December 2023, NIO surpassed BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi for six consecutive months in the market with an average transaction price of more than 300,000 yuan in Shanghai, the leading city of China's automotive industry, regardless of power form.
Regarding NIO's long-term basic disk, it is remarkable. With a complete product layout, this year's new brand for the mass market will undoubtedly increase NIO's sales, the technology platform is leading and controllable, and the dividends of serving multiple brands to give full play to their technological advantages are coming soon, and the market share has been firmly at the top of the high-end pure electric field. In addition, with policy support and the joining of the same industry to replace the battery, the network effect of battery swapping will only become stronger and stronger with the extensive layout of the battery swap station, becoming one of the deepest moats. Another point that has been overlooked is that NIO has basically gained a firm foothold in the high-end pure electric brand, and this kind of brand power from high to low will play a huge advantage in the subsequent competition. Even with the loss, the cash reserves of more than 57 billion yuan still give NIO full confidence, and with the expansion of scale, the technology platform is becoming more and more mature, and the profit can be expected. In the long run, there is no reason why NIO should not be favored.