A-share review|The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points! Two major reasons were exposed, and eight major institutions interpreted the market outlook

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On March 27, the three major indexes were adjusted across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 1% at the end of the session, once again falling below the 3,000-point mark, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. On the disk, the hot theme stocks in the early stage were all out of flames, with high-speed connectors, computing power, optical modules, and AI corpus leading the decline; large consumer stocks such as food and beverage rose against the trend, and banks and real estate rose in the afternoon. The two cities traded 888.9 billion yuan throughout the day, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from yesterday. Northbound funds sold a net of 7.249 billion yuan throughout the day, with an intraday outflow of more than 10 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 45.75 billion yuan from the main domestic capital.

So, what is the reason for the end of the market? According to a report by Brokerage China, analysts believe that the reasons mainly come from two aspects:

First, in the external market, the Bank of Japan led to the strengthening of the US dollar, the weakening of the yen, and the weakening of the RMB, resulting in the outflow of foreign capital.

Second, today is the settlement date of ETF options. This is probably the main reason for the tail dive. The settlement date of ETF options is the fourth Wednesday of each month, which will be rolled over if it falls on a statutory holiday. And today happens to be Wednesday. Generally speaking, the risk on the settlement date of an option is not small. For example, on February 28, the options were settled, and the market fell sharply.

Eight major institutions interpret the market outlook

Looking ahead, CICC Strategy pointed out that looking ahead, although short-term fluctuations are still not ruled out, the A-share repair market is still expected to continue.

China Universal Fund: Emotional disturbance is temporary, and it is not advisable to be pessimistic around 3,000 points

The Shanghai Composite Index is currently around 3,000 points, which should not be pessimistic, and now the Shanghai Composite Index is valued at 1.25x PB showing a high margin of safety.

Looking ahead, we believe that overseas interest rate cuts are rising, liquidity improvement expectations are further strengthened, and the domestic macro economy is gradually showing signs of stabilization, and at the same time, with the support of a series of policies to stabilize growth, economic fundamentals are expected to repair upward. The disturbance of the emotional side is temporary, near 3000 points, the Shanghai Composite ETF (510980), which tracks the market barometer Shanghai Composite Index, has a high allocation cost performance at the moment, and investors can choose the opportunity to lay out at a low level through strategies such as regular investment or grid trading.

CICC: Short-term volatility is still not ruled out, but the A-share repair market is still expected to continue

CICC Strategy pointed out that since the beginning of February, the A-share market has rebounded against the backdrop of stable growth policies and capital market reforms, and investors are paying attention to new upward catalysts after the index has fluctuated around key points for a period of time. Marginal changes in short-term news amplify investors' sentiment fluctuations, and the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has also increased due to external factors such as the US dollar index. Looking ahead, although short-term fluctuations are still not ruled out, the A-share repair market is still expected to continue.

ChinaAMC: After continuous adjustment, the risk has been released, and the downside of the index is limited

In the short term, the risk has been released after the continuous adjustment of the market, the early excess of the technology growth sector has been given back more, the current market is better than the beginning of the year in terms of investor risk appetite and trading structure, the index downside space is limited, with the adjustment, since March, the defensive funds will be on the dip again, and the funds that have rebounded since February also have the opportunity to get on the bus, and the decline of incremental funds is controllable, and the longer look at the two cities after 3 years of adjustment is still in the historically low valuation range, and the internal return force is upward。

Shenwan Hongyuan: The performance growth of A-shares in 2024 still needs to be polished

Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan Research A-share strategy, said at the "Shenwan Hongyuan 2024 Capital Market Spring Strategy Conference" that the performance growth of A-shares in 2024 still needs to be polished, and the performance in 2025 may be out of the bottom area. In the first three quarters of 2024, A-shares are generally volatile, and the index center is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the April high-dividend style will return.

Huatai Securities: The short-term market may remain volatile, focusing on northbound and large capital trends

Huatai Securities said that the stock index has not been able to attack for a long time, and the pre-Qingming Festival effect is superimposed, and the market may remain volatile in the short term. If there is a decline, the market may follow the trend to find support below 3,000 points, and pay attention to the movement of northbound funds and large funds. At present, the market has entered the annual report performance disclosure period, and the target with high dividends is easy to be sought after by investment funds, and the strategy of high dividends is still worth paying attention to.

Founder Securities: After the inertia retreats, there is a relatively strong rebound requirement

Although many recent events have a great impact, the impact of this news will not last, let alone change the original trend of the market. The short-term market will also fall back by inertia, but there is a strong support near the half-year line, the shrinkage of the amount of energy indicates that the momentum of the bears is gradually slowing down, and there are rebound requirements after the short-term inertia falls, from the perspective of the overall adjustment space, there is a very strong technical support near 2950 points, and the overall adjustment space is relatively limited.

Guosheng Securities: Continue to focus on the direction of new energy with low valuation

Guosheng Securities believes that the market has shown signs of ebb and flow in recent days, with the increasing differentiation of high-level theme stocks, high short-term profit-taking pressure, and high and low market styles. Operationally, high dividend varieties may have better performance in the market adjustment cycle, and some positions can be adjusted for defensive allocation. Continue to focus on the direction of new energy with low valuation, and there are certain layout opportunities in the aquaculture industry, where the reduction of production capacity has accelerated.

Jufeng Investment Advisor: At the moment of economic recovery and policy continuous efforts, there is no need to worry too much

Jufeng Investment Advisor said that the index broke through the 3,000-point integer mark in the high-level shock adjustment, and retraced 3,000 points again or became the focus of everyone's attention. If it falls below 3,000 points, whether to withdraw or increase positions may be a concern for many investors. At the moment of economic recovery and policy continuous efforts, there is no need to worry too much about strategic investors, and they can still participate in the low absorption of high-quality varieties on dips. However, under the weak repair of fundamentals and multi-party interference, swing investors still need to consider reducing their holdings or waiting for the new direction of the market.

The concept of longevity medicine bucked the trend

Longevity drug NMN concept

Interpretation: On the news side, in the latest list of food additives accepted by the National Health Commission, there is a figure of B-nicotinamine, which is known as the "longevity enzyme". CITIC Securities pointed out that it is estimated that the current NMN market space corresponding to every 1% of health care products in China is 30.4 billion yuan. With the continuous promotion of anti-aging products in the future, the long-term market of the industry is expected to reach 100 billion yuan.

Even the leading stocks

From the perspective of individual stocks, 464 companies rose in the two cities, with a total of 45 shares up to the limit. In terms of board stocks, Dali Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. walked out of 12 days and 9 boards, and Ningke Biotechnology once again rose to the limit, harvesting 6 boards, but the company issued a risk warning announcement on the evening of the 26th, saying that the holding subsidiary is still in a state of suspension.

Source: Tencent Watchlisted

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