A股复盘|沪指失守3000点！两大原因曝光 八大机构解读后市

  为投资者提供专业资讯服务 

资讯传递价值，专业伴随成长！

——腾讯官方证券投资平台

  为投资者提供专业资讯服务 

资讯传递价值，专业伴随成长！

——腾讯官方证券投资平台

3月27日，三大指数全线调整，沪指尾盘跌逾1%，再度失守3000点关口，深成指、创业板指跌超2%。盘面上，前期热门题材股全线熄火，高速连接器、算力、光模块、AI语料方向领跌；食品饮料等大消费股逆势上扬，银行、房地产午后拉升。两市全天成交8889亿，较昨日缩量672亿。北向资金全天净卖出72.49亿，盘中一度流出超百亿元；内资主力净流出457.5亿。

那么，究竟是何原因导致了尾盘杀跌呢？据券商中国报道，分析人士认为，原因主要来自两个方面：

一是外围市场，日本央行导致美元走强，日元走弱，人民币亦跟随走低，致使外资流出。

二是今天是ETF期权结算日。这可能是尾盘跳水的主要原因。ETF期权的结算日是每个月的第四个星期三，如果该日遇到法定节假日，则会顺延。而今天恰好是周三。一般来说，期权结算日风险都不小。比如2月28日也是期权结算，市场就曾出现过大跌。

八大机构解读后市

展望后市，中金策略指出，往后看，虽仍不排除短期波动，但A股修复行情仍有望延续。

汇添富基金：情绪扰动是暂时的，3000点附近不宜悲观

上证综指目前3000点附近，这个位置不宜悲观，现在上证综指估值1.25x的PB显示出较高的安全边际。

展望后市，我们认为，海外降息风起，流动性改善预期进一步强化，而国内宏观经济渐现企稳迹象，同时在稳增长一系列政策的加持下，经济基本面有望向上修复。情绪面的扰动是暂时的，3000点附近，跟踪市场晴雨表上证综指的上证综合ETF(510980)在当下具有较高的配置性价比，投资者可通过定投或者网格交易等策略择机低位布局。

中金：仍不排除短期波动，但A股修复行情仍有望延续

中金策略指出，2月初以来A股市场在稳增长政策发力、资本市场改革预期背景下展开反弹，近期指数围绕关键点位震荡一段时间后，投资者正在关注新的上行催化。短期消息面边际变化放大投资者的情绪波动，受美元指数走高等外部因素影响，人民币汇率波动也有所加大。往后看，虽仍不排除短期波动，但A股修复行情仍有望延续。

华夏基金：连续调整后风险已有所释放，指数下行空间有限

短期看市场连续调整后风险已经有所释放，科技成长板块前期超额已经回吐较多，当下的市场不管是投资者风险偏好还是交易结构等都比年初好，指数下行空间有限，随着调整之后，3月以来偏向防守的资金将会再次逢低布局，而踏空2月以来反弹的资金也有了上车机会，增量资金下跌幅可控，更长的看两市经历了持续3年调整依然在历史极低估值区间，内在回归力量是向上的。

申万宏源：2024年A股业绩增长仍需磨底

申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛在“申万宏源2024资本市场春季策略会”上表示，2024年A股业绩增长仍需磨底，2025年业绩或脱离底部区域。2024年前三季度A股总体是震荡市，第四季度指数中枢有望抬升。短期而言，4月高股息风格将回归。

华泰证券：短期市场或将维持震荡，关注北向及大资金动向

华泰证券表示，股指久攻不下，叠加清明节前效应，短期内市场或将维持震荡行情。若出现下跌，市场或会顺势在3千点下方寻找支撑，关注北向资金以及大资金的动向。目前行情已进入年报业绩披露期，高分红标的容易受价投资金追捧，高股息策略仍值得关注。

方正证券：惯性回落后，有较为强烈的反弹要求

近期发生的诸多事件虽影响力较大，但这种消息面的影响不会持续，更不会改变市场原有的趋势。短线大盘盘中还将惯性回落，但半年线附近有较强支撑，量能的萎缩预示空方杀跌的动力逐步放缓，短线惯性回落后有反弹要求，从整体调整的空间来看，2950点附近有非常强的技术支撑，整体上调整的空间较为有限，惯性回落后，有较为强烈的反弹要求，量能继续决定着反弹的高度。

国盛证券：继续重点关注低估值的新能源方向

国盛证券认为，近日市场表现为高位题材股分化加剧出现退潮迹象，短期获利回吐压力较高，市场风格进行高低切换。操作上，高股息红利品种或在市场调整周期内有较好表现，可调整部分仓位进行防守型配置。继续重点关注低估值的新能源方向，产能去化幅度加快的养殖业亦存在一定布局机会。

巨丰投顾：在经济修复及政策持续发力的当前，不必过于担忧

巨丰投顾表示，指数高位震荡调整中刺破3000点整数关口，再次回撤3000点或成为大家关注的焦点。而跌破3000点，是撤离还是加仓可能是很多投资者关心的问题。在经济修复以及政策持续发力的当前，对于战略投资者来说，没有必要过于担忧，仍是可以逢低参与优质品种的低吸。但在基本面修复不强以及多方干扰下，波段投资者还是需要考虑阶段减持或出局观望，耐心等待市场新的方向选择。

长寿药概念逆势走高

长寿药NMN概念

解读：消息面上，在卫健委最新的食品添加剂受理名单中，出现了被坊间称为“长寿酶”的B-烟酷胺的身影。中信证券指出，据估计，目前国内每1%保健品对应的NMN市场空间为304亿元。随着未来抗衰老产品的不断推广，行业长期市场预计将达到1000亿元。

连板龙头股

从个股看，两市上涨464家，共45股涨停。连板股方面，大理药业走出12天9板；宁科生物再度涨停，收获6连板，不过公司26日晚间发布风险提示公告称，控股子公司仍处于停产状态。

来源：腾讯自选股

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