A股複盤|滬指失守3000點！兩大原因曝光 八大機構解讀後市

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——騰訊官方證券投資平台

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資訊傳遞價值，專業伴随成長！

——騰訊官方證券投資平台

3月27日，三大指數全線調整，滬指尾盤跌逾1%，再度失守3000點關口，深成指、創業闆指跌超2%。盤面上，前期熱門題材股全線熄火，高速連接配接器、算力、光子產品、AI語料方向領跌；食品飲料等大消費股逆勢上揚，銀行、房地産午後拉升。兩市全天成交8889億，較昨日縮量672億。北向資金全天淨賣出72.49億，盤中一度流出超百億元；内資主力淨流出457.5億。

那麼，究竟是何原因導緻了尾盤殺跌呢？據券商中國報道，分析人士認為，原因主要來自兩個方面：

一是外圍市場，日本央行導緻美元走強，日元走弱，人民币亦跟随走低，緻使外資流出。

二是今天是ETF期權結算日。這可能是尾盤跳水的主要原因。ETF期權的結算日是每個月的第四個星期三，如果該日遇到法定節假日，則會順延。而今天恰好是周三。一般來說，期權結算日風險都不小。比如2月28日也是期權結算，市場就曾出現過大跌。

八大機構解讀後市

展望後市，中金政策指出，往後看，雖仍不排除短期波動，但A股修複行情仍有望延續。

彙添富基金：情緒擾動是暫時的，3000點附近不宜悲觀

上證綜指目前3000點附近，這個位置不宜悲觀，現在上證綜指估值1.25x的PB顯示出較高的安全邊際。

展望後市，我們認為，海外降息風起，流動性改善預期進一步強化，而國内宏觀經濟漸現企穩迹象，同時在穩增長一系列政策的加持下，經濟基本面有望向上修複。情緒面的擾動是暫時的，3000點附近，跟蹤市場晴雨表上證綜指的上證綜合ETF(510980)在當下具有較高的配置成本效益，投資者可通過定投或者網格交易等政策擇機低位布局。

中金：仍不排除短期波動，但A股修複行情仍有望延續

中金政策指出，2月初以來A股市場在穩增長政策發力、資本市場改革預期背景下展開反彈，近期指數圍繞關鍵點位震蕩一段時間後，投資者正在關注新的上行催化。短期消息面邊際變化放大投資者的情緒波動，受美元指數走高等外部因素影響，人民币匯率波動也有所加大。往後看，雖仍不排除短期波動，但A股修複行情仍有望延續。

華夏基金：連續調整後風險已有所釋放，指數下行空間有限

短期看市場連續調整後風險已經有所釋放，科技成長闆塊前期超額已經回吐較多，當下的市場不管是投資者風險偏好還是交易結構等都比年初好，指數下行空間有限，随着調整之後，3月以來偏向防守的資金将會再次逢低布局，而踏空2月以來反彈的資金也有了上車機會，增量資金下跌幅可控，更長的看兩市經曆了持續3年調整依然在曆史極低估值區間，内在回歸力量是向上的。

申萬宏源：2024年A股業績增長仍需磨底

申萬宏源研究A股政策首席分析師傅靜濤在“申萬宏源2024資本市場春季政策會”上表示，2024年A股業績增長仍需磨底，2025年業績或脫離底部區域。2024年前三季度A股總體是震蕩市，第四季度指數中樞有望擡升。短期而言，4月高股息風格将回歸。

華泰證券：短期市場或将維持震蕩，關注北向及大資金動向

華泰證券表示，股指久攻不下，疊加清明節前效應，短期内市場或将維持震蕩行情。若出現下跌，市場或會順勢在3千點下方尋找支撐，關注北向資金以及大資金的動向。目前行情已進入年報業績披露期，高分紅标的容易受價投資金追捧，高股息政策仍值得關注。

方正證券：慣性回落後，有較為強烈的反彈要求

近期發生的諸多事件雖影響力較大，但這種消息面的影響不會持續，更不會改變市場原有的趨勢。短線大盤盤中還将慣性回落，但半年線附近有較強支撐，量能的萎縮預示空方殺跌的動力逐漸放緩，短線慣性回落後有反彈要求，從整體調整的空間來看，2950點附近有非常強的技術支撐，整體上調整的空間較為有限，慣性回落後，有較為強烈的反彈要求，量能繼續決定着反彈的高度。

國盛證券：繼續重點關注低估值的新能源方向

國盛證券認為，近日市場表現為高位題材股分化加劇出現退潮迹象，短期獲利回吐壓力較高，市場風格進行高低切換。操作上，高股息紅利品種或在市場調整周期内有較好表現，可調整部分倉位進行防守型配置。繼續重點關注低估值的新能源方向，産能去化幅度加快的養殖業亦存在一定布局機會。

巨豐投顧：在經濟修複及政策持續發力的目前，不必過于擔憂

巨豐投顧表示，指數高位震蕩調整中刺破3000點整數關口，再次回撤3000點或成為大家關注的焦點。而跌破3000點，是撤離還是加倉可能是很多投資者關心的問題。在經濟修複以及政策持續發力的目前，對于戰略投資者來說，沒有必要過于擔憂，仍是可以逢低參與優質品種的低吸。但在基本面修複不強以及多方幹擾下，波段投資者還是需要考慮階段減持或出局觀望，耐心等待市場新的方向選擇。

長壽藥概念逆勢走高

長壽藥NMN概念

解讀：消息面上，在衛健委最新的食品添加劑受理名單中，出現了被坊間稱為“長壽酶”的B-煙酷胺的身影。中信證券指出，據估計，目前國内每1%保健品對應的NMN市場空間為304億元。随着未來抗衰老産品的不斷推廣，行業長期市場預計将達到1000億元。

連闆龍頭股

從個股看，兩市上漲464家，共45股漲停。連闆股方面，大理藥業走出12天9闆；甯科生物再度漲停，收獲6連闆，不過公司26日晚間釋出風險提示公告稱，控股子公司仍處于停産狀态。

來源：騰訊自選股

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