On the evening of March 22, 2024 local time, a shooting occurred in a concert hall in Krasnogorsk, a suburb of Moscow, and the Russian side identified it as a terrorist attack. According to Xinhua News Agency, the chairman of the Russian Investigative Committee, Bastrykin, reported to President Putin on the 25th that the incident had killed 139 people and injured 182. As of March 23, 11 suspects had been arrested. Russian authorities have said they will "pay the debt with blood", but have not yet identified the attackers.
According to a report by Sky News on March 24, the extremist group "Islamic State" released a first-person video of the alleged attack on the Moscow Oblast Concert Hall and admitted responsibility for the incident. The international community has condemned terrorist acts.
On March 24, 2024 local time, the Basman District Court of Moscow escorted Mirzoev, who was suspected of committing a terrorist attack in the concert hall of the "Saffron Town Hall". (Visual China/Photo)
Put pressure on Putin
Back in 2015, at the height of the Islamic State, Russia sent troops to participate in the fight against terrorist groups in Syria. Under a series of attacks by Russia and Iran, the "Islamic State" forces gradually collapsed, and by 2017, the "Islamic State" forces were basically eliminated, but their remnants remained. Involved in the attack was Khorasan a branch of the Islamic State, which had ties to the Afghan Taliban but turned to ISIS because it was "too moderate".
The reasons why ISIS chose to carry out terrorist attacks in Russia may be as follows:
The first is to create terrorist influences and effects. Terrorist organizations increase their influence and visibility by committing terrorist attacks, which in turn attracts more people to join their organizations.
The second is to retaliate against Russia's crackdown on extremist groups. While fighting the "Islamic State", Russia is also cracking down on Chechnya and other terrorist organizations and ethnic separatist forces in the country, and has sent troops to Afghanistan.
Third, Russia's security vulnerabilities have brought opportunities to take advantage of. First of all, the FSB of Russia failed to obtain relevant information in advance. Second, the election has been successfully concluded, and Moscow's security forces as a whole are in a period of relaxation. Third, Russia's security priorities and security resources are mostly invested in the special military operation against Ukraine. In this case, counter-terrorism security efforts may be at a critical juncture.
Fourth, put pressure on Putin. The terrorist attack was chosen the day after Putin's re-election announcement and was held at a large-scale weekend concert in the suburbs of Moscow, where security was not strong, and it is difficult not to suspect that this was a "congratulatory gift" from the "Islamic State" to Putin for his re-election.
On March 25, 2024 local time, Putin held a video conference to discuss measures taken after the attack on the concert hall. (Visual China/Photo)
Who is behind the murder?
According to the video from the scene and the analysis of relevant experts, the terrorist attackers were well-trained, fully equipped, made a relatively careful plan in advance, and planned an escape route afterwards. All this makes people wonder: Is there someone behind this who is instigating and helping?
As early as March 7, the U.S. Embassy in Russia issued a warning that it had detected that "extremists" were plotting an attack on the Russian capital Moscow in the coming days, and the U.S. Embassy in Russia wrote, "The [U.S.] Embassy is monitoring information about extremists' planned attacks on large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts, and advises U.S. citizens to refrain from attending large gatherings in the next 48 hours." He also reminded U.S. citizens to "avoid crowds, pay attention to local media, and pay attention to their surroundings."
Two weeks later, the terrorist attack took place, although much later, but recalling the relationship between the United States and the extremist group "Islamic State", many people can't help but wonder if Washington has some connection to the terrorist attack.
According to the New York Times, on March 22, local time, a U.S. counterterrorism official said that members of the extremist group "Islamic State" have been active in Russia, and the United States gathered intelligence in early March that the group's branch "Islamic State Khorasan Province" is planning to attack Moscow.
In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks, the response of the Russian side was even more intriguing. In his speech on March 23, Putin noted that "the suspects fled in the direction of Ukraine, and someone prepared a 'window' for them to flee the border".
The Ukrainian side then denied it, and Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, responded that Ukraine had absolutely nothing to do with the terrorist attack, and that "Russia needs to stop using terrorism as a means of waging war against its own people and Ukraine." ”
For his part, Vadim Denisenko, executive director of the Institute for the Future of Ukraine and a doctor of historical sciences, noted that the Kremlin may deliberately blame Ukraine for the terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow on the night of March 22 and step up mobilization.
However, according to Russian media reports, a source revealed that a number of circumstantial evidence suggests that Ukrainian and Western agents may be involved in the terrorist attack. The report pointed out that Ukrainian agents are suspected of working closely with radical missionaries, including Ukrainian journalist Anwar Derkach, who has deep ties to the Hizb al-Tahrir du Islam (Hizbir) and has its followers in Ukraine. Derkach is accused of playing a catalytic role in the recent protests in Tajikistan and having direct ties to Ukrainian agents.
Secondly, the escape route of the four people after committing the crime is suspected to be an important clue.
Putin had mentioned that, according to preliminary information, the terrorists had prepared a route across the border to the side of Ukraine. The source confirmed this detail, noting that the fugitives may have planned to flee to Ukraine or Belarus. In an interview with the media, an expert on counter-terrorism activities analyzed that instead of hiding in the huge local migrant group, they went to the border areas under strict control, showing that they may be consumed pawns, "They were promised an escape route, but in fact they were used and framed." ”
From the perspective of the possibility and motive of launching a terrorist attack, it seems reasonable to suspect that the United States, Ukraine and other Western countries have relevant information in advance, and it is possible that Washington will facilitate the terrorist attack and use the "Islamic State" to achieve its strategic goal of killing people with a knife, thereby destabilizing Russia in a state of war. This would be in the interests of the West at the moment, but it is impossible to draw conclusions about it due to the lack of evidence, but the possibility remains.
Coincidentally, on March 25, local time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said in an op-ed that the extremist group has adjusted its plans in recent years, and now the organization is mainly targeting enemies and adversaries of the United States, including Iran, the legitimate government of Syria and Russia, which is really a strange coincidence.
Zakharova said that it was the United States, intentionally or unintentionally, that intervened in the formation of extremist organizations, and that extremist organizations unscrupulously carried out horrific terrorist attacks around the world. This, on the other hand, confirms the possibility of US involvement in this terrorist attack.
Caught in a security dilemma
The terrorist attacks reflect an essential problem: the growing social contradictions in Russia and the resurgence of terrorism. Internally, Russia has a large number of ethnic groups and ethnic problems occur from time to time, and externally, Russia has put itself in a domestic security dilemma by intervening in Syria, Ukraine and other countries and regions.
In fact, before the Moscow terrorist attack, Ukraine had successfully used drones to attack Moscow many times, but it did not cause too many casualties, and the terrorist attack once again exposed the security dilemma within Russia today. At present, on the one hand, Russia's military stalemate on the Russian-Ukrainian front has given terrorism an opportunity, and Russia will implement a stricter security system and strengthen immigration management, which is bound to cause more tension in Russia.
In addition, the United States has a historical relationship with terrorism, as early as the 70s of the last century, in the Afghan war launched by the Soviet Union, the United States secretly supported the Afghan anti-Soviet forces, including the later famous al-Qaeda. In a certain sense, terrorist organizations in the Middle East today are inextricably linked with the United States, and the United States uses terrorist organizations to provoke internal conflicts in Middle Eastern countries in order to divide Middle Eastern countries, and then strengthen its political and military influence in the Middle East and achieve its goal of controlling Middle Eastern countries and realizing its world hegemony.
The root cause of terrorism stems from ideological conflicts and contradictions between national and regional interests; economically, in areas where terrorism is rampant, social instability is extremely unstable and people's living standards are low. Moreover, in today's changing world, terrorism has the potential to be used by certain countries as a tool for their national interests.
• (The author is the director of the Center for Slavic Studies, Institute of Circum-Mediterranean Studies, Zhejiang University of Foreign Chinese)
Zhang Lupeng, special researcher of the Southern Defense Think Tank
Editor-in-charge: Yao Yijiang