The question of such a choice will always exist
Stockholders like to choose stocks the most, and like to bet alone, so the question arises, A OR B, how to choose? The common result is that A is chosen, and B goes up; the worse result is that A is wrong, sold, and buys B that looks right, and B starts to fall, and A shares start to rise. So, this question needs us to figure out, how exactly to do it?
There was such a case recently. Some shareholders mentioned that Ali has been 10 years since 2014, down 20%, and Shaanxi - coal industry is 10 times in the same period, a new format, another traditional coal, how to choose? If you know the result now, it seems that everyone should have the answer, but even so, the factors experienced in the past few years still make it difficult for us to choose, for example, Ali has Internet + in the early stageOn the contrary, in recent years, the e-commerce platform has fallen (of course, the rise of Pinduoduo is also in such a cycle, it can be said that the industry has reshuffled), and the coal industry has been active following the Russia-Ukraine war factor, while the market is weak and the high dividend factor has also given birth to activity.
Obviously, there are unknown factors at different stages, what if there is no Russia-Ukraine factor? What if Ali focuses on e-commerce like Pinduoduo, instead of failing in transition finance? And this market will always have various temptations and tests. There are also people who say that first fry Ali, and then follow the weak cycle to speculate on high dividends, which is the most bullish, but in fact, what if you choose the wrong one? I chose coal first, and then I saw Ali and chased Ali, and as a result, the high dividend rose, is it also very possible?
Including, coal stocks, if China-Shenhua in 2007 has only now regained lost ground, is it also a possibility? Therefore, every model has a test, and it is clear what you can give and what you can bear, which is what it is possible to get. Even if you know the final answer, the factors to be experienced during this period are still unknown, which is also the charm of investment, similar to an open-book exam, there are answers everywhere, but none of them are absolutely sure and easy, there are tests everywhere, and setbacks everywhere.
Choosing a problem to solve?
To be honest, if investors just think about A OR B alley thinking, this problem is unsolvable, or only the great gods know, and ordinary people cannot have the answer, especially when it needs to be practiced. Actually, let's expand our thinking a little bit, what if A and B are chosen? Half and half, is the result better than the so-called 0 or 1 choice? Obviously, this is the rebalancing thinking that has been taught (explained in detail in the https://weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309404968601122898379), which is also very worth thinking about, and the portfolio is more effective and more suitable for the long term than a single model.
At the same time, continue to expand. In the https://weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309404993968520954118, an idea was mentioned, "investment is not a multiple-choice question of buying or not buying, but a probability question, how to live for a long time through a reasonable combination of allocation, and then earn a high probability of profits." Insist on relying on the reliable economic environment and the law of the industry cycle to correspond to the operation, clear the spring, summer, autumn and winter of the market; understand the law, even if there is external temptation, no matter how doubtful, you can also be persistent in your own game; rely on the portfolio to live for a long time, and finally realize the road of value. "- Yes, this is the idea of cracking. It must be that we need to invest in the portfolio, because the times are not completely predictable, or even unpredictable.
Then, we need to come up with some of the underlying logic to stabilize the output of cash flow, and then ambush some emerging industries to expand the income ceiling, which is a reasonable idea. Therefore, we should never choose A OR B in order to bet on a certain one, so that we fall into an alley thinking, and it is difficult to solve the problem. We have to jump out to have a solution to the problem, and that's what we need to think about. Next, let's expand more industries and think like this.