The spring equinox has passed, the temperature has gradually warmed up, the progress of early rice spring ploughing has accelerated, and the overall progress of early rice seedling raising in the southern producing areas has passed forty percent, and the focus of the rice market has gradually shifted to the production of new season rice. The mainstream prices of rice in the domestic market remained stable, and the prices of by-products of rice processing increased steadily.
Entering the second half of March, the purchase of japonica rice in Northeast China is coming to an end, the rotation of local reserve rice in the southern provinces continues to advance, the consumption of rice in the terminal market gradually weakens, the enthusiasm of rice enterprises to purchase raw grain is insufficient, the purchase and sales activity gradually declines, the short-term rice market maintains a stable trend, and the shock in some areas weakens.
Meteorological conditions were generally good
It is conducive to the spring sowing of early rice
In late March, the weather in most parts of the south was sunny and the temperature was suitable, which was conducive to the sowing and seedling raising of early rice and first-season rice. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of March 17, the southern early rice has entered the peak period of seedling raising, with the overall progress reaching 41.3%, 4.7% of which has been planted, and 7.1% of the first-season rice has been raised, and sporadically planted. According to the agrometeorological monitoring, the early rice in South China and southern Yunnan is in the sowing to three-leaf stage, the early rice in Hainan is in the jointing to booting and heading stage, and the first-season rice in southwest China is in the sowing to three-leaf stage.
It is expected that there will be a significant rainfall process in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River next week, among which the meteorological conditions for spring plowing and spring sowing in northeast Sichuan, southern Chongqing, northern Guizhou, central Hunan and central Jiangxi are second-suitable, and northern Chongqing, southwestern Hubei, northern Hunan and northern Jiangxi are unsuitable, and spring sowing of indica rice may be blocked.
The rotation of ground storage continues to advance
Indica purchases are becoming more rational
Recently, the price of indica rice has been stable and weak, and rice companies still have a certain demand for reserves, but the purchase of market entry has become more rational, and the trading activity has declined. As of March 21, the purchase price of hybrid rice in Ji'an, Jiangxi Province was 2760~2800 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice was 4000 yuan/ton, and the rice shipment was not smooth, and the mainstream price of the market remained stable; the purchase price of hybrid rice in Chenzhou, Hunan Province was 2760~2800 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice was 4200~4400 yuan/ton, and the downstream rice demand was general, and the market wait-and-see sentiment was strong; ton, the ex-factory price of rice is 4000~4060 yuan/ton, the purchase and sale of rice is not fast, and the mainstream price is stable; Anhui Chuzhou "Feng Liangyou" rice purchase to the factory price of 2800~2880 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of rice is 4040~4100 yuan/ton, the demand is not strong, the market is mainly on demand.
In March, the rotation of local reserves in the southern provinces continued to advance. From March 18th to 20th, Guangdong Province carried out two-way procurement and sales, bidding for the purchase of 37,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice in 2023, with an actual transaction price of 3,200~3,300 yuan/ton, with a discount range of 0~100 yuan/ton, and a cumulative sales of 5,000 tons of early indica rice, with an actual transaction price of 2,700~3,265 yuan/ton, and a premium of 0~75 yuan/ton. Hunan Province sold 01,000 tons of early indica rice, the actual transaction price was 2,700 yuan/ton, many unsuccessful auctions, the auction floor price continued to decline, and the market demand was average. Hubei Province sold 00,300 tons of mid-to-late indica rice, and the actual transaction price was 2,600 yuan/ton. Jiangxi Province sold 8,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice, and the actual transaction price was 2640~2664 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0~64 yuan/ton. Anhui Province sold 9,000 tons of mid-to-late indica rice, and the actual transaction price was 2600~2805 yuan/ton.
The overall stability of japonica rice is dominant
There is limited room for price fluctuations
In late March, rice consumption gradually entered the off-season, weak demand led to the continued low operating rate of rice mills, insufficient enthusiasm for purchasing raw grain, and the overall price of japonica rice was mainly stable, with limited room for fluctuation. As of March 21, the purchase price of ordinary round grain japonica rice in Jiamusi, Heilongjiang Province was 2700~2720 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice was 3640~3700 yuan/ton. The purchase price of super rice in Shulan, Jilin is 3200~3260 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of super rice is 4400 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week. Liaoning Dandong "Yanfeng" rice purchase price of 2860 ~ 2940 yuan / ton, rice ex-factory price of 4000 ~ 4100 yuan / ton, and last week is basically the same, the spot market purchase and sales are light, the goods are not fast, there is no price in the market highlighted. The purchase price of ordinary japonica rice in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province is 2840~2860 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of rice is 3740~3960 yuan/ton.
Processing enterprises can start up flexibly
The price of by-products has risen steadily
Entering the second half of March, the market for rice processing by-products has improved. Rice processing enterprises flexibly adjusted their start-up according to the inventory and order situation, the supply of by-products was limited, and the prices of rice bran, rice bran meal and rice husk remained stable and rising. According to monitoring, as of March 21, the purchase price of rice bran market rose across the board, Heilongjiang Jiamusi 2240 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Xuzhou 2280 yuan/ton, Liaoning Yingkou 2320 yuan/ton, Hunan Yueyang 2520 yuan/ton, all up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The purchase price of rice bran meal market rose steadily, Heilongjiang Jiamusi 1630 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Xuzhou 1880 yuan/ton, Guangdong Zhaoqing 2100 yuan/ton, all the same as last week, Hubei Jingmen 1920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, Liaoning Yingkou 1830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The purchase price of rice husk market in Jiansanjiang in Heilongjiang Province was 320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week, and 430 yuan/ton in Yiyang, Hunan, unchanged.
The advantage of international rice prices is no longer there
Mainland imports continue to decline
According to the latest customs statistics, the mainland imported 80,000 tons of rice in February 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 78.6%, and a total of 220,000 tons of rice from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 63.8%. In February, the mainland exported 30,000 tons of rice, down 19.3 percent year-on-year, and 180,000 tons of rice from January to February, up 14.2 percent year-on-year. After entering 2024, international rice prices have fallen from their highs, and the price gap between domestic and foreign rice has narrowed, but the inversion of domestic and foreign rice prices is still relatively obvious, the international rice price advantage is no longer there, and mainland rice imports continue to decline.
From January to February, the mainland imported 120,000 tons of refined brown rice, accounting for 55 percent, and 100,000 tons of broken rice, accounting for 45 percent. From the perspective of import source countries, 87,000 tons were imported from Thailand, accounting for 40 percent, 83,000 tons were imported from Myanmar, accounting for 38 percent, 21,000 tons were imported from Vietnam, accounting for 10 percent, and 26,000 tons were imported from Pakistan, Laos and other countries, accounting for 12 percent.
From January to February, the mainland exported 175,000 tons of refined brown rice, accounting for 97 percent; from the distribution of export countries, there were more than 20 mainland rice exporting countries from January to February, and compared with imports, mainland rice exports were relatively scattered. According to statistics, the top five rice export destinations include Libya with 30,000 tons, accounting for 17%, South Korea with 27,000 tons, accounting for 15%, Puerto Rico with 21,000 tons, accounting for 12%, Democratic Republic of the Congo with 20,000 tons, accounting for 11%, Guinea-Bissau with 20,000 tons, accounting for 11%, and more than 20 other countries with 61,000 tons, accounting for 34%.
Global rice supply and demand are loose
International rice prices were mixed
This week, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised global rice production, consumption and ending stocks for 2024/2025 in its latest monthly report, and slightly revised down the rice trade data. Global rice production in 2024/2025 is estimated at 521 million tonnes, up 1.9 percent from 511.2 million tonnes in the previous season, global rice trade at 50.3 million tonnes versus 50.4 million tonnes in the previous season, global rice consumption at 518.7 million tonnes, up 0.5 percent from 516 million tonnes in the previous season, and global rice ending stocks at 168.8 million tonnes, up 1.4 percent from the previous season.
Rice prices in Thailand fell across the board this week. According to monitoring, as of March 21, Thailand's 5% crushing rate rice FOB price was 608 US dollars / ton, down 22 US dollars / ton from last week, up 131 US dollars / ton year-on-year; Thai parboiled rice FOB price was 69 US dollars / ton, down 14 US dollars / ton from last week, up 133 US dollars / ton year-on-year; Thai fragrant rice FOB price was 855 US dollars / ton, down 7 US dollars / ton from last week, up 20 US dollars / ton year-on-year. Loose supply of new rice on the market, weak Thai baht and stiff competition from neighbouring Vietnam have prompted Thai rice exporters to sell at lower prices.
Vietnam's rice export prices rose across the board. As of March 21, Vietnam's 5% crushing rate rice FOB price was 598 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton from last week, up 148 US dollars/ton year-on-year, and Vietnamese fragrant rice FOB price was 674 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton from last week and 134 US dollars/ton year-on-year. Rice export prices edged higher as purchases from Vietnamese rice exporters and processors increased, leading to higher domestic rice prices. Shipping data shows that the port of Ho Chi Minh will be loaded with 450,000 tons of rice in March, most of which will be destined for the Philippines and Indonesia.
Pakistani rice export prices were mixed. As of March 21, Pakistan's 5% crushing rate rice FOB price was 605 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from last week, up 150 US dollars/ton year-on-year, and Pakistan's 2% crushing rate Basmati rice FOB price was 1000 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last week, down 410 US dollars/ton year-on-year. (The original article was published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on March 23, 2024)
Source丨Grain and oil market newspaper
General Duty丨Liu Xinhuan Editor丨Congshen
