This week, the CBOT U.S. soybean futures price hit a new high in the rebound, the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, and the global reflation trade is hot, boosting the trend of commodities; excessive precipitation in Argentina has caused floods, and the output may be damaged, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium is still firm, and the pressure on South America's bumper yield is temporarily less than expected, which comprehensively leads to the U.S. soybean futures price to a higher level.
Domestic oil mills soybean stall stall led to a low operating rate, the price of oilmeal continued to rise, the performance of the domestic disk is significantly stronger than the external disk, the domestic oil mill profit improvement, is conducive to the later import of soybeans to buy ships, under the continuous positive cycle, the domestic market purchase and sales sentiment has improved significantly, the spot price of soybean II has been steadily strengthened, but as the Argentine soybean harvest is approaching, the pressure of bumper yield may reappear in the US market.
The purchase of domestic beans has increased one after another, the spot price in the producing area has stabilized and rebounded, and the psychological price of farmers' grain sales has risen, resulting in a slowdown in the purchase progress, and the upward trend of the first phase of the bean price has been blocked.
In March, the global commodity market reflation trade was hot, the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates, boosting the market's long sentiment on commodities, gold prices have repeatedly hit record highs, crude oil prices have performed firmly, and domestic agricultural product prices have risen gratifying after the Spring Festival. The Wenhua Agricultural Products Index rose from a low of 172.37 on February 7 to a high of 183.81 on March 21, with the largest increase of 6.62%, of which the oil and oilseed sector was the top gainer.
After the continuous rise from February to March, the purchase and sales mentality of the agricultural product market has gradually improved, the recent soybean break in the oil mill has led to a low operating rate, the price of oilmeal has continued to rise, the performance of the domestic disk is significantly stronger than the external disk, and the domestic oil mill has improved its profits, which is conducive to the later import of soybeans to buy ships.
In Argentina, the impact of this week's waterlogging has yet to be assessed, as the impact of waterlogging is relatively limited compared to drought, Argentina's soybean production is expected to be limited, and as Argentina's soybean harvest approaches, bumper yield pressure may reappear in the U.S. market.
According to Mysteel's agricultural product survey, as of March 15, the national port soybean inventory was 4.1615 million tons, a decrease of 733,800 tons week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 84,900 tons. With the arrival of April, the domestic soybean arrivals will increase month-on-month, the tight supply and demand of domestic imported soybeans will be improved, and the short-term increase in the domestic meal market price has been huge.
In March, the spot price of soybeans in Northeast China stabilized and rose by 20~40 yuan/ton month-on-month. After the recent rise in spot prices, the psychological price of farmers' grain sales has risen, and the purchase progress has slowed down, and the spot supply and demand in the producing areas may become tighter in the later period. Overall, the price of beans in the near month is blocked and falls, and the short-term or will be weakened, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to the price trend of U.S. beans in the medium term. (This article was originally published in the B03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on March 23, 2024)
Source丨Grain and oil market newspaper
General Duty丨Liu Xinhuan Editor丨Congshen
