1. At 9:30 a.m. this Friday, our exchange rate suddenly began to dive, which is consistent with the rapid decline of A-shares after the opening, with the exchange rate falling by 0.74% on the day, from the previous day's level of 7.221 to 7.275, setting a record for the largest one-day decline since February 25, 2023, and after the close of our A-shares on Friday, it continued to decline until the market closed. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday that the use of foreign capital in January and February fell by 19.9% year-on-year, which I estimate will have a greater impact on the trend of A-shares next Monday.
Second, let me briefly interpret the "T+1" of refinancing, I think everyone should look at "T+1" rationally. "T+1" was only delayed by one day, and there was no pause in refinancing. Starting from the second day, "T+1" is actually equivalent to returning to the state of "T+0", because from the second start, you can refinance every day, since the refinancing "T+1", the amount of A-shares has not decreased, and the amount of energy is still maintained at more than one trillion, if the refinancing is suspended, I believe that the amount of energy will be reduced in the short term, so the refinancing "T+1" has not played a role in whether A-shares can continue to rise.
3. A-shares fell sharply on Friday, and the volume could reach 1,103 billion, but the decline narrowed on Friday afternoon and did not continue to decline. I am generally not optimistic about the reversal on the way down, which is very likely to be the performance of the main force to take the opportunity to reduce positions, the net outflow of the main funds on Friday reached 45.1 billion, which is the second position of the net outflow since October last year, which shows that the main force is more panicked.
Fourth, to sum up, I think the risk factor is relatively large, I also posted earlier that I am not optimistic about the reason for the trend of A-shares next Monday, securities, new energy vehicles and pharmaceutical sectors or the main driver of the market decline, I am still bearish on Monday for the time being. Of course, the situation is changing rapidly, and I don't blindly stick to my opinion, and when the situation changes, I will change my opinion in due course. I'll see what's new tomorrow morning and discuss it with my colleagues, and I'll give my final and definitive view.