The performance of the market this week was mediocre, but it suddenly fell sharply on Friday, but fortunately, the cheerleaders continued to enter the market to help the big A, this Thursday's Q&A, everyone is very active in asking questions, I also chose a more representative question in accordance with the convention, to share with you, such as many friends asked about the value of holding Ruiyuan growth lost a lot, now do you want to replace? Which fund to buy for new quality productivity? Dividends have recently pulled back more, when will you intervene? When will semiconductors usher in a reversal? I bought more than 20 of them after more than 3 years of regular investment and are still losing, what should I do now?
Question 1
Now holding Ruiyuan growth value, regular investment in 4 years loss of 35 points, how to operate?
Ruiyuan Growth Value is biased towards the growth of the broader market, but the long-term performance of this fund is very retraced, and the control is not ideal, and the recent rebound is relatively weak, so it can be considered to be replaced.
At this stage, the growth of the market is still worth allocating, you can continue to insist, or disperse and choose a few more funds for the growth of the market, such as Jianxin Health and People's Livelihood in I want to be smart, and the growth of Anxin's advantages can be used as a reference.
Source: Haomai Fund Research Center, data as of 2024/3/21
Question 2
Which fund do you buy?
Choose science and technology, like Zheng Xi's E Fund Information Industry, and Li Xin's Huaan Intelligent Equipment theme is specialized in TMT direction, which can outperform the science and technology 50 in the long run, but this kind of technology fund fluctuates very violently, take advantage of the large drawdown to invest, and be sure to control the proportion. Or you can also choose the more pan-tech Yang Ruiwen, Invesco Great Wall environmental protection advantages.
Source: Haomai Fund Research Center, data as of 2024/3/21
Source: Haomai Fund Research Center, data as of 2024/3/21
In the past three years, the bear market, the science and technology category is particularly miserable, the science and technology 50 has fallen by 35.75% in the past three years, these three science and technology funds, one lost more than 8 points, and the other two have earned about 5 points, that is to say, the excess return of the science and technology 50 in 3 years has been 40%.
However, I still have to remind everyone that due to the heavy position in TMT, although the alpha is excellent, the volatility is still violent, and the drawdown can reach more than 30% at every turn, or even 50%, so everyone should try to increase their positions by retracement buying, and don't chase the rise.
Question 3
There have been a lot of pullbacks in dividends recently, when is it appropriate to intervene again?
If you are talking about the two indexes of CSI dividend and dividend low wave, then I do not recommend intervening in the short term, which has a relatively high proportion of coal and banks, these two are now at a high level of correction, especially coal is more dangerous, these products at a high level, there are still funds to switch to the direction of the low level, and the risk of high dividends I also reminded you in the Q&A article two or three weeks ago.
If you still want to participate in the opportunity to participate in dividends, such as the dividend low wave 100 is relatively less risky, the industry is more diversified, and this index is quarterly rebalancing, when this wave of dividend index retracement, it is relatively less down, you can choose this index.
However, this index is defensive, and some of it can be allocated, but reduce expectations, and when the market improves, this index will perform backwards.
As for when to buy, now the Shanghai Composite Index is suppressed by the annual line There is a certain resistance, the decline is somewhat large, the overall attitude of the market is cautious, there may be technical adjustments in the next few days, but today the national team continues to enter the market, there is still a willingness to support the market, so even if there is an adjustment, the amplitude will not be too large, and the dividend low wave 100 can take advantage of this decline to buy.
Question 4
Has the semiconductor industry bottomed out, and when will it usher in a turning point?
The demand side of semiconductors is now marginally improving, especially the price of memory chips continues to rise, in addition to the production capacity cycle, semiconductors also have the technology cycle of artificial intelligence.
The semiconductor index is currently rising to near the semi-annual line, which is relatively weak in this round of rebound, and the position is lower to continue to hold, in addition to semiconductors, you can also pay attention to the investment direction of more pan-science and technology, and diversify investment.
For example, the science and technology funds mentioned earlier about new quality productivity can be considered.
Question 5
I have invested in more than 20 active funds for 3~4 years, most of which are losses or serious losses. I want to replace this part of the loss-making active fund with an index fund, how to match it?
I believe that this is the current problem encountered by most of the people's friends, although I haven't seen your position, but I guess that it should be the large-market growth class with more, chasing the high of the year, and now the embarrassing point is that if you take these large-cap growth funds themselves are no problem, the current point in time is actually to the stage where you can configure the growth of the market, so you may also face the risk of short-selling at this time.
So I don't recommend that you replace all the losses now, the first thing you have to do is to see if there is any problem with these funds themselves, replace the problems, and then match the overall allocation according to 60% of the market growth, 40% value or balance.
That is to say, if there is no problem with the fund you hold now, then 60% of the position does not need to be sold, so as to try to reduce the situation of you cutting meat and diversify the allocation.
If you don't know how to check whether there is a problem with your fund, you can go to see if I want to be smart and real, compare the performance of similar funds, and mark the style of these funds for you in the real market, if you are growing in the market, you can find the fund in the market to compare the performance of the past 3 years and 2 years, if the gap is very large, then change to the fund in the real market, if your fund is better, then continue to hold.
Although this method is a bit rough, it is relatively easy for you to implement, and you can use the fund PK function directly on the Haomai Fund APP.
If you only want to buy an index fund, then after judging the performance of this fund, you can also go to the corresponding index fund in the real market of I want to become rich.
When changing positions, don't change too violently all at once, you can change positions in batches, and change them slowly on a weekly basis, which can be completed within 3-6 months.
Question 6
Is it time for the pig cycle to reverse?
It's not easy to say, now the current pig cycle of the current high production capacity characteristics have not changed, the speed of capacity adjustment is relatively slow, this round of decline cycle is quite long, on March 4, the National Bureau of Statistics data show that in late February this year, the price of live pigs fell again by 2.1%.
However, the capital market will basically speculate in advance, that is, speculate on expectations, and it is difficult for us to grasp this rhythm.
When you ask this question today (Thursday), it should be that you see that the pig cycle has risen higher today, so I wonder if the market has begun to hype the pig cycle, but whether this rise is hyping the pig cycle, I don't think it's easy to say.
I take the CSI Animal Husbandry Index as an example, and it crossed the half-year line after rising more than 3 points on Thursday, while many other industry indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index have already crossed the half-year line, and even want to challenge the annual line.
So the rise in the past few days I can also interpret it as a supplementary market, as for whether the pig cycle is going to start hype, it is not very clear at present, that Friday the CSI livestock index fell by more than 2 points, back to the half-year line, more violent than the overall market pullback.
But operationally speaking, although the right side is not very confirmed, but there is a high probability that there is no problem on the left side, the past pig cycle is almost a round of 4 years, and this round can probably be calculated from 2019, and now it is called the longest pig cycle, and the index is also at a low level, just said that this round of rebound is not much, just touched the semi-annual line and turned back today, this round of rebound 17%, plus the market will generally start hype ahead of the fundamentals, so we can also ambush it first, waiting for the market performance.
With the growth of the large market falling for 3 years, and the value style and the small cap style have reached a higher price in the past 3 years, the market has recently shown signs of high and low switching, and it is time for us to pay attention to the growth style of the large market.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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