Xie Yifeng: A new round of real estate rescue plans will be released soon
Text/Xie Yifeng
Lao Han's article "Xie Yifeng: Deep Adjustment of the Real Estate Market, Rescue Plan Needs to Be Expanded" on March 22 proposed that the bailout should be increased, mainly based on the national economic data and real estate market data in the previous 2 months. Sure enough, on March 22, the National Standing Committee proposed to further optimize the real estate policy.
It is almost the same as the content of the real estate market analysis and policy recommendations of the experts of the relevant ministries and commissions in the first half of March. It depends on the timely follow-up of the ministries and commissions, and the local understanding and implementation. The proposal of further optimizing the real estate policy of the National Standing Committee on the 22nd is in line with the government report and the real estate statement of the housing and construction department.
Lao Han believes that the National Standing Committee's proposal to further optimize the real estate policy is heavy news for the market, which means that in the deep adjustment of real estate, the early rescue has not achieved the expected effect, and a new round of real estate rescue plan will be released soon. It is expected that the next round of property market restrictions in first- and second-tier cities will be further lifted or loosened.
In the second half of April, the data of macroeconomic, financial and real estate markets in the first quarter of 2024 will be released, and the changes in the data will become the trend of the economic and real estate policies of the Central Political Bureau in April (whether the bailout plan will be expanded or large-scale stimulus plan), and will determine the development trend of the macroeconomy and real estate market in the first half of the year.
First, the National Standing Committee meeting on March 22 listened to a report on optimizing real estate policies and promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. It is pointed out that the real estate industry chain is long and involves a wide range, which is related to the vital interests of the people and the overall situation of economic and social development.
Stabilizing the economy and stabilizing real estate first is the same logic as the first four rounds of real estate bailouts. The importance of the real estate industry is the so-called pillar industry (contribution to GDP and finance), basic industry (investment, consumption, and household wealth), pioneer industry (finance, employment), and leading industry (involving 57 related industries).
Second, it is necessary to further optimize the real estate policy, continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, ensuring people's livelihood and ensuring stability, further promote the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, systematically plan relevant support policies, effectively stimulate potential demand, increase the supply of high-quality housing, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Lao Han believes that the statement of the National Standing Committee is more open and clear than the government report and the real estate policy statement of the housing and construction department, the policy optimization is greater, and the plan to rescue the market is more systematic. It not only emphasizes the implementation of existing real estate policies, but also requires systematic preparation of new real estate policies to increase the supply of high-quality housing.
Ensuring the delivery of buildings, ensuring people's livelihood and ensuring stability are still the most important tasks in 2024. The most important thing is that it is very rare to put forward for the first time "to further optimize the real estate policy", the first time to put forward "systematic planning of relevant support policies", the first time to "effectively stimulate potential demand", and the first time to "increase the supply of high-quality housing".
The first is to further optimize the real estate policy and release the guiding signal of continuous optimization, easing and big moves of the real estate policy, which means that at the end of March and the beginning of April, the real estate market once again ushered in a new round of rescue plan. Including demand-side, supply-side, capital-side policies, there are national and local real estate policy relaxation.
The second is to ensure the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood, and stability throughout 2024. Ensuring the delivery of the building is put in the first place, releasing a signal that the pressure of the delivery of the building still exists, and its work tasks are heavy. The premise of ensuring people's livelihood is to ensure the delivery of the building, and ensuring stability is the premise of ensuring the delivery of the building. The top priority is to ensure stability, in order to ensure the delivery of the building, and finally to protect the people's livelihood.
With the joint efforts of all parties, a breakthrough has been made in the work of ensuring the delivery of the building. By the end of 2023, more than 3 million units of 3.5 million units have been delivered, with a delivery rate of more than 86%. The vast majority of the 350 billion yuan of special loans for guaranteed delivery of buildings have been put into specific projects, and the overall resumption rate of special loans for guaranteed delivery of buildings has reached 99.9%.
At the end of February, the area of commercial housing for sale in the country was 759.69 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% (3.1% narrower than the growth rate at the end of 2023). The inventory of commercial housing exceeded 718.53 million square meters in 2015, the highest since 1987. Most of the 760 million square meters are existing house inventory, and some off-plan houses are mostly houses to be delivered and cannot be sold.
Among them, the residential area for sale was 405.00 million square meters, an increase of 23.8% (an increase of 1.6% compared to the end of 2023). The office building was 51.13 million square meters, an increase of 8.4% (8.7% narrower than the growth rate at the end of 2023). commercial business space was 144.37 million square meters, an increase of 3.6% (9.7% narrower than the growth rate at the end of 2023).
The third is to further promote the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and release the signal that the financial situation of real estate enterprises remains unchanged and the financing is relaxed and increased. In order to truly solve the problem of project funding difficulties, it is clear that various financial support policies will be further increased, which simply means that financing policies need to be further relaxed.
According to data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, as of March 9, 312 cities in 31 provinces across the country have established real estate financing coordination mechanisms, involving more than 6,000 projects, 82% of which are projects of private and mixed-ownership enterprises. As of the end of February, more than 200 billion yuan of loans have been approved by commercial banks.
The fourth is to systematically plan relevant support policies and release a signal of the introduction of a package of real estate rescue plans. It should involve the coordination between various departments to be strengthened, and the real estate policies of housing, land regulation, finance, central bank, finance, taxation and other departments should cooperate with each other to form a systematic real estate rescue package.
The fifth is to effectively stimulate potential demand, and release a strong signal to cancel the restrictive measures such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, sales restrictions, price restrictions, signature restrictions, enterprise restrictions, departure restrictions, gift restrictions, legal auction restrictions, area and house type restrictions, and second-hand housing guide prices, and reduce the threshold for buying houses and the transaction costs of house purchases (reducing the down payment of housing loans and exemptions from interest rates and taxes and fees).
The sixth is to increase the supply of high-quality housing, releasing a strong signal of canceling the purchase restriction of large units and the 90/70 policy of housing, increasing the transfer of high-quality land plots and canceling the price limit, optimizing the 1.0 restriction on the plot ratio of high-quality projects in the suburbs, and adjusting the standard of ordinary housing (increasing the supply of high-quality housing), building materials (green, low-carbon, energy-saving, health, safety) and digital (smart, technology) housing supply.
In order to ensure the delivery of buildings, ensure people's livelihood and ensure stability, it is not only necessary to fully implement the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism that has been introduced, the 16 financial articles (four sharp arrows), the three policies that are not less than the modification of operating property loans and personal loan indicators, and the three major projects, but also the key is to come up with new policies and form a package of systematic rescue plans.
The first is to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates
The second is to limit purchase, loan, sale, price, sign, enterprise, departure, house type and area, legal auction house, gift house, second-hand housing guide price, (22 cities residential land supply is concentrated) The house price and land price limit and self-holding, competition for construction (existing houses, affordable housing) restrictions have been completely abolished in first- and second-tier cities.
The third is the tax exemption, the first house is exempt from deed tax and stamp duty, the second house is reduced by half the deed tax and stamp duty, the value-added tax exemption is changed from 5 years to 2 years, and the personal income tax is halved.
The fourth is the minimum down payment of 15% for the first house and a preferential interest rate of 7%, the minimum down payment for the second house is 25% and the preferential interest rate is 85%, and the down payment for the third and fourth homes is liberalized, with a down payment of 35% and 40% respectively, and the interest rate is lowered again.
The fifth is the first house (sell one to buy one, rent one to buy one, for the first set), the second house (cancel the number of family housing units, cancel the total area of family housing restrictions, cancel the mortgage subscription adjustment to recognize the house without the loan), multi-child families (the purchase of the second house is considered the first house, the purchase of the third house is considered the second house) The identification standards have been comprehensively adjusted.
The sixth is to extend the loan term of commercial banks' housing loans and provident fund housing loans (20 years to 30-50 years), increase the amount of provident fund loans, increase the number of provident fund loans, and liberalize non-local provident fund loans.
The seventh is the adjustment of ordinary housing standards, the cancellation of the 90/70 housing policy, and the financial subsidies for talent housing and the purchase of the first home.
The eighth is urban renewal, monetization and resettlement of shantytowns, or 4 trillion yuan of infrastructure and affordable housing and urban renewal and public infrastructure plans (three major projects).
The ninth is the three red lines and the implementation of the centralized real estate loan system will be suspended for 3-5 years, and the real estate will be restored after it stabilizes.
The tenth is the low-interest extension of financial and quasi-financial debts of real estate enterprises in danger for 5 years, and the low-interest extension of commercial bill debts for 5 years.
The eleventh is the establishment of the National Housing Bank (a policy-based housing financial institution) to purchase the inventory of commercial housing and convert it into affordable housing (public rental housing and rental housing for rental affordable housing, co-ownership housing and talent housing for placement affordable housing, affordable housing and price-limited housing) to ensure the delivery of buildings.
The twelfth is the establishment of the National Housing Bank (a policy-based housing financial institution) to hold bonds of real estate enterprises in distress (domestic and overseas).
Third, it is necessary to adapt to the development trend of new urbanization and the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, accelerate the improvement of the "market + security" housing supply system, reform the basic system related to commercial housing, and strive to build a new model of real estate development. On March 5, the housing and urban-rural development department's experience of the new model of real estate development.
Constructing a new model of real estate development is a fundamental strategy to solve the problems of real estate development and promote the stability and health of the real estate market. It is necessary to always adhere to the positioning of "housing for living, not speculation", improve the housing supply system of "market + security", the government guarantees basic housing needs, the market meets multi-level and diversified housing needs, and establishes a housing system that combines rental and purchase.
In 2024, the construction of the housing security system, the housing supply system (the dual-track system of commercial housing and affordable housing), and the housing system of simultaneous rental and purchase will be accelerated, and the reform of the basic system related to commercial housing will be promoted.
Estimated land system (land acquisition system, bidding, auction and listing transfer system, high-price land acquisition model, land reserve system, benchmark land price system, land finance system, land vacancy tax system), housing transaction system (off-plan housing sales system, existing house sale system), housing security system (housing security system, housing security law).
There is also a financial system (real estate enterprise financing (finance, stock market, bonds, domestic guarantee foreign loans, non-standard financing system), personal housing mortgage system, commercial housing pre-sale fund supervision system), tax system (tax sharing system, real estate tax, real estate vacancy tax system, real estate inheritance tax system) will usher in the new stage and new model to adapt to the system improvement and reform.
Lao Han believes that the biggest problem of the current housing system is the one-way model of the land system, the lack of housing security system and legislation, and the imperfection of the land (land finance), finance and taxation (tax sharing system), finance (financing, mortgage), and transaction (sales model) systems of the commercial housing system, which cannot be thoroughly improved in the short term, solve the current problems, and lack of mechanisms to solve them in the long term.
The housing system is a government-led model, that is, the government regulates the market, determines the allocation of people, housing, land, and financial resources, because it involves the economic development model, departmental interests, the relevant parties up and down, and the revision of the system and law, etc., and the city is very different, and the situation is different from place to place, so it is very difficult to form such a new model of concept, two mechanisms, and three major projects.
The current problems encountered by China's real estate industry (2020 to the present (2024) are the largest crises in the history of cumulative risk since 1987, surpassing the problems encountered in 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015.
Because the problems faced by the fifth round of real estate are different from the background and environment of the past four rounds of real estate downturn, the epidemic and trade and regional conflicts, the economic downturn, the real estate clearance and the market downturn, debt explosion, overdue delivery, credit risk, and asset depreciation risk intersect with each other.
Lao Han believes that to solve the current real estate problems, it is not simply by squeezing toothpaste-type restrictive measures to cancel or adjust, and the implementation of the 16 financial articles (four sharp arrows) and the letter of guarantee for pre-sale funds and three not less than, operating property loans and personal loan index revision, the three major projects, and the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism can be solved.
First of all, the timing of real estate clearance is wrong, and it should not be carried out in an unstable situation during the economic and real estate downturn. The second is that the government's real estate clearance has formed an unexpected impact on the economy and the market, lacks adaptability, poor market control and response ability, and lacks an expected early warning mechanism and crisis pre-resolution mechanism.
Finally, sales continue to be sluggish and collections are depleted, resulting in a continuous shortage of cash flow for real estate companies. The most important thing is that sales, debt, financing, delivery, credit, expectations, and asset depreciation have intersected with each other, forming a systemic risk in real estate, and the so-called new model of real estate development is obviously unable to solve the current problem.