#记录我的2024#
First of all, let's predict the performance of this case in the next three years.
Judging from its historical growth rate, the three-year revenue compound growth rate is 33%, the net profit compound growth rate is 30%, and the industry growth rate of orthokeratology lens imports is 21%.
Considering that the proportion of orthokeratology lenses in China only accounts for 16%, there is a large room for growth in the future, giving it a growth rate of 30%.
According to estimates, from 2018 to 2020, the sales of plastic lenses will be about 287 million yuan, 373 million yuan, and 486 million yuan
Orthokeratology lenses account for approximately 72% of total revenue. From 2018 to 2020, the total revenue was 399 million yuan, 519 million yuan, and 674 million yuan, and the net profit was 188 million yuan, 244 million yuan, and 317 million yuan
Since OPCOM does not have the PE of comparable companies in the same industry as a reference, we choose the historical valuation range of medical devices to see:
Lepu Medical 35-75 times, Bluesail Medical 31-95 times, Sino Biotech 35-55 times, Yuyue Medical 37-65 times, Kailitai 33-95 times, Dian Diagnostics 45-95 times
It should be noted that the general valuation of the medical device field is relatively high, mainly due to its high valuation of mergers and acquisitions, such as Lepu Medical, which has been studied before, and more than ten mergers and acquisitions have occurred since its listing
At the same time, the historical valuation range of this case itself is about 45 times to 65 times, but its listing time is short and it is not a reference.
In addition, the ROIC of the reference market is about 27%.
Considering its "growth", the reasonable PE value is about 30-50 times, then, the corresponding market value in 2018 is about 5.6 billion yuan to 9.4 billion yuan.
Based on the above valuation, it is estimated that the valuation range is about 3 billion to 9 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE is about 20X to 60X
That is, if the corresponding PE is below 20x, the margin of safety is relatively high, while if the valuation rises to around 60x and above, the margin of safety is quite low.
It is worth mentioning that the above calculation is a relatively optimistic algorithm, which fails to take into account its future market ceiling, earnings quality, etc., if there is a black swan event in these items, it may lead to the valuation range being lowered
At present, the PE-TTM of this case is 43 times and the market value is 8.8 billion yuan, although the adjustment has been made for a long time after listing, the valuation is still not cheap.
Finally, after the conclusion of this case study, there are some ideas for your reference:
Previously, in the field of consumables, we have studied orthopedic consumables Dabo Medical, indeed, both of them are quite amazing in terms of financial data, and according to public information, they are the No.1 in the subdivided industry, and they seem to be proper growth stocks
2. According to the research framework, after studying the fundamental factors one by one, we found that the data is indeed beautiful, but if we look at the financial logic, business logic, core moat, and valuation logic, both of them are in the moat, and it seems that the convincing power needs to be strengthened
3. Next, the most difficult problem comes: according to traditional value research, financial logic + business logic + moat + valuation logic must achieve a four-in-one
So, if one of the major logics is in doubt and you don't think through it, what will you do? Or do you want to do value investment or value speculation?
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market