Recently, many people have said that every time the dollar raises interest rates and lowers interest rates, it will trigger a global financial crisis.
At present, the global financial market has begun to be turbulent, and this time the matter in the United States is not small, and it seems that the global crisis is not small, how much impact will this have on our financial market and the economy that is accelerating its recovery?
Recently, global financial markets have been in turmoil as the US dollar rate cut approaches.
On March 19, the Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike, ending years of zero interest rates, which caused quite a stir due to the large scale of Japan's debt and overseas investment, which had little impact on global financial markets.
However, the yen depreciated due to the Bank of Japan's cautiousness and the weakening of expectations for the Japanese economy due to the yen's interest rate hikes.
On March 21, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates, accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts in Europe and even the United States, breaking the expected trend of interest rates and exchange rates of major European currencies.
More importantly, Switzerland took the lead in cutting interest rates, which means that the European economy may weaken, coupled with the recent escalation of the European and Russian rivalry in Ukraine, the exchange rate of most non-dollar currencies such as the euro has fallen sharply, and the dollar index has passively strengthened.
This series of factors has led to large fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and trading volume, let's take a brief look at the data.
According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in February this year, China's foreign exchange market totaled 16.86 trillion yuan (equivalent to 2.37 trillion US dollars).
From January to February this year, China's foreign exchange market accumulated 41.53 trillion yuan (equivalent to 5.84 trillion US dollars).
However, from January to February last year, China's foreign exchange market accumulated 34.93 trillion yuan, and this year it is 6.6 trillion yuan more.
On March 22, the RMB exchange rate also fluctuated significantly, and the offshore USD/RMB exchange rate broke through the 7.26 mark.
The renminbi depreciated again, which is widely believed to be due to the simultaneous decline of currencies such as the euro and the yen, the passive strengthening of the dollar index, and the drag on the yuan.
This shows that the US dollar is about to cut interest rates, and international speculators and hot money are beginning to find the direction of the wind and begin to prepare in advance.
Of course, there are also countries that are preparing in advance, or even avoiding risks in advance, such as Japan and Switzerland.
However, behind these superficial reasons, it is actually the result of the United States paving the way for the global layout in advance before the dollar cut interest rates.
The United States is the world's only financial superpower, and their understanding and layout of finance are far beyond our imagination.
In fact, most of this series of financial turmoil is in line with the expectations of Americans before the dollar cut interest rates.
In November and December last year, when the market began to be optimistic about the expectation of a rate cut, the dollar fell sharply, startling Americans.
Some experts believe that what Americans are most afraid of is a sharp depreciation of the dollar, which will lead to a decline in their purchasing power, and the paper figure of the US GDP will also fall, and the United States will appear weak.
Therefore, in order to maintain the monopoly position of the dollar, the United States can only pull up the dollar, and will not allow the dollar to depreciate sharply.
However, once the interest rate is cut, the probability of a depreciation of the dollar will be very high, which is also the almost unanimous perception of the market at present.
If the dollar index falls below 90, it will inevitably cause panic in the world and increase the sell-off of the dollar.
Under the influence of the trend of "de-dollarization", the United States will have no way to deal with it at this time, and a bad situation of "depreciation, inflation, interest rate hikes, and recession" will be formed. If it comes to this point, the United States will not be a country.
In the face of the crisis, the global layout of the Americans, the financial field, is not the focus, because the exchange rate is difficult to reverse the market law, and the Americans do not have the power to break the global situation.
However, what the Americans have in their hands is superior military strength and the ability to cause trouble in the world for many years, which is much more than all other countries in the world.
So, in times of crisis, the Americans used what they were best and best at.
As long as Europe continues to be turbulent, the Middle East continues to be at war, and East Asia continues to do things, the situation in these major regions is unstable, coupled with the severance of several of the world's most important economic lifelines, it will drag the world's major currencies down to continue to fall.
As long as the euro, the yen, and the renminbi are not on their feet, they can hedge against the downward pressure of the dollar caused by the dollar's interest rate cuts, and the dollar exchange rate will be stabilized.
You may have a hard time believing that the Americans could have such crazy plans?
Judging from historical experience, every major global financial crisis has been caused by the United States, and this is because the US economic model and financial system have natural defects, and they have done special things in recent years and have done so recklessly.
What are the shortcomings of the U.S. economic model and financial system? This is a very big topic, and we have done several issues in the past.
To put it simply, the hollowing out of the manufacturing industry and the excessive financial prosperity have caused the lack of US dollar underlying assets in the United States, so every few years, the United States has to reset the dollar and re-target the world's major assets.
This time, the things in the United States are so big that they have used almost all their strength, and the means are unprecedented.
At the end of 2024, as the dollar begins to cut interest rates, a new round of global financial turmoil will be inevitable.
Last year, we did a lot of work in building a financial power and guarding against financial risks, and we also made a lot of adjustments in our global layout, which effectively strengthened our ability to withstand shocks.
At the same time, in 2023, many of our risks will be cleared ahead of schedule, such as local government bonds, real estate, and so on.
China has always been one of the most stable markets in the world, and this time is no exception.