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Market Overview
Super central banks U.S. stocks and bonds rose all week, the S&P and Dow fell to closing record highs, and the Nasdaq closed at a record high in three days, rising at least nearly 2% for the week. Nvidia rose more than 3% to a record high, and the GTC conference rose more than 7% in a week, rising for 11 consecutive weeks, setting a record for the longest weekly gain. The "Seven Sisters" of technology only Apple fell throughout the week. After the earnings report, FedEx rose more than 7%, and Nike fell nearly 7%. Reddit fell nearly 9% the next day after its listing.
The pan-European stock index rose for nine consecutive weeks, the longest weekly gain since 2012, and German and Italian Western stocks hit a record high for four consecutive days.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit a new one-week low, and the two-year yield fell by more than 10 basis points for the week. The U.S. dollar index hit a one-month high. The pound hit a one-month low. The yen turned higher after hitting a four-month low, still posting its biggest weekly drop in two months.
Crude oil fell from a more than four-month high on the third day and rose slightly throughout the week. Gold fell more than 1% and fell to an intraday all-time high, and gold futures recorded the largest decline in a month, turning from rising to falling throughout the week. London nickel fell to a new low in nearly four weeks, and London copper fell, stopping five weeks and two consecutive weeks of gains, respectively. Bitcoin fell $4,000 intraday and fell below $63,000, the biggest weekly decline in half a year.
In the Chinese market, during the U.S. stock market, the Chinese concept stock index fell nearly 2%, the second week of the Year of the Dragon fell, Xpeng Motors fell nearly 8%, and the offshore yuan fell more than 600 points to 7.28, hitting a four-month low. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and closed down, copper cable high-speed connections broke out, the computing power leasing sector continued to rise, and Li Auto fell by more than 10%.
News
Premier Li Qiang: Further optimize the real estate policy and promote the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism. Intensify efforts to clear up the accounts owed to enterprises, properly resolve the risk of existing debts, and strictly prevent the risk of new debts.
Asian currencies fell across the board, some analysts said that it was related to the "black swan" Swiss Central Bank unexpected interest rate cut, and Soochow Macro said that Friday's market was not a signal that the policy "abandoned" the exchange rate.
Meituan's Q4 revenue increased by 22.6% year-on-year, turning losses into profits for the whole year, and new business losses narrowed.
The old leader of the Federal Reserve said that the number of interest rate cuts this year may be less than expected, and the number of rate cuts by the dovish voting committee has been reduced to only once.
Apple's weight in the S&P 500 has slipped to its lowest level since 2021, and Apple has done "subtraction": it doesn't make cars, and it doesn't do microLEDs on watch displays.
OpenAI may launch a personal assistant like Jarvis, and the new trademark Voice Engine reveals information. OpenAI plans to enter Hollywood with Sora, meeting with studio and media executives next week.
The market closes
U.S. stocks: The Dow fell 0.77%, the S&P 500 fell 0.14%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.16%.
European stocks: The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.03%, up 0.96% for the week, rising for the ninth consecutive week. Germany's DAX index rose 1.5% this week, rising for seven consecutive weeks. France's CAC index fell 0.15% this week. Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 2.63%.
A-shares: ChiNext fell 0.95%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%, and ChiNext Index fell 1.47%.
Bond market: The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 6.88 basis points to 4.1981%, down 10.82 basis points for the week. The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 4.71 basis points to 4.5891%, after falling 13.84 basis points for the week.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for May delivery closed down $0.44, or 0.54%, at $80.63 a barrel, up 0.06% for the week. Brent crude oil futures for May delivery closed down $0.35, or 0.41%, at $85.43 a barrel, up 0.10% for the week. COMEX gold futures for April delivery closed down 1.13% at $2,160.00 an ounce. COMEX silver futures for May delivery closed down 0.66% at $24.843 an ounce. London zinc and London nickel closed down at least about 1.6%, and London lead and London nickel fell at least more than 4.4% this week.
Highlights
Domestic macro
Premier Li Qiang: Further optimize the real estate policy and promote the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism. It is necessary to further optimize the real estate policy, continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, ensuring people's livelihood and ensuring stability, and further promote the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism.
Premier Li Qiang: Intensify efforts to clear up the arrears of enterprises, properly resolve the risk of existing debts, and strictly prevent the risk of new debts. Li Qiang emphasized that the work of debt reduction is not only a tough battle, but also a protracted battle. All regions and departments should improve their political positions, strengthen their sense of responsibility and system concept, continue to deeply resolve local government debt risks, make greater efforts to resolve the debt risks of financing platforms, increase efforts to clean up arrears of enterprises, properly resolve the risks of existing debts, and strictly prevent new debt risks.
The Cyberspace Administration of China promulgated the Provisions on Promoting and Regulating Cross-border Data Flows.
Asian currencies fell across the board, with the renminbi falling below 7.26
- Some analysts said that the decline of Asian currencies across the board was related to the "black swan" Swiss Central Bank unexpectedly announcing a 25 basis point interest rate cut. After the SNB, more central banks may follow suit to cut interest rates, and the dollar's advantage in the context of strong US economic growth has once again emerged.
- Soochow Macro pointed out that Friday's market is not a signal that the policy "abandons" the exchange rate, and as long as the central price is stable, the policy tone will not change; the impact of accidental events is only accidental, and the impact is limited in time.
Domestic companies
Meituan's Q4 revenue increased by 22.6% year-on-year, turning losses into profits for the whole year, and new business losses narrowed
- Meituan's core local business remained solid in the fourth quarter, with a 2.1% year-on-year decline in profit margins, while new business losses narrowed, although Meituan Preferred's growth slowed and scale growth was lower than expected. On the call, the company said that in the future, it plans to increase the markup rate of goods and reduce subsidies, and pay more attention to the long-term growth of user organic retention.
Evergrande Real Estate is suspected of fraudulently issuing bonds of 20.8 billion yuan, and what responsibility should be borne by the four-headed intermediaries such as China Securities Construction Investment? A number of lawyers and financial and accounting audit experts said that in view of the huge amount of financial fraud involved in the case, the China Securities Regulatory Commission should investigate the intermediaries, and if the intermediaries fail to be "diligent and conscientious", they may be punished by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and bear joint and several civil liability for compensation.
Ping An's results conference revealed "key" information: the stock price is undervalued, dividends should be adhered to, and business confidence should be made.
Overseas macro
The old leader of the Federal Reserve said that the number of interest rate cuts this year may be less than expected, and the number of rate cuts by the dovish voting committee has been reduced to only once. For Fed Chair Jerome Powell's "dovish" this week, saying that falling inflation and a strong economy provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates, former Fed Vice Chair Clarida said it may be more of a hope than a prediction. The president of the Atlanta Fed said he expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once this year, instead of the two originally expected, and the first rate cut will come later than he had previously predicted.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion appropriations bill to avoid a partial "shutdown" of the government.
The key upside catalyst for U.S. stocks in 2024: $925 billion in share buybacks. Share buybacks can reduce the number of shares outstanding, but the group of investors is growing, so they are bound to lead to an increase in stock prices. Goldman Sachs expects share buybacks by U.S. companies to increase by 13% to $925 billion this year and by a further 16% to $1.075 trillion in 2025.
Japan's CPI accelerated in February, and the Bank of Japan's expectations for further interest rate hikes rose, and Japan's "spring fight" second round: wages rose by 5.25%, the highest in 11 years
- Japan's inflation accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in February, exceeding the central bank's policy target of 2% for 23 consecutive months, analysts believe that Japan's real interest rate fell to -2.09%, monetary conditions are more accommodative, and Japan may accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes if wages push prices up further.
Bank of England Governor Bailey: The market is right to expect more than one rate cut this year. Bailey said that he is increasingly confident in the fight against inflation, and will focus on service sector inflation next, with the year's meetings all "open the door" to interest rate cuts.
The shooting at a concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow has killed 40 people and injured more than 100.
Overseas companies
Apple's weight in the S&P 500 has slipped to its lowest level since 2021, and Apple has done "subtraction": it doesn't make cars, and it doesn't do microLEDs on watch displays
- According to the analysis, the "big battle" between Apple and the Ministry of Justice will be a "marathon" related to the reform and update of the anti-monopoly law and affect the fate of the technology industry. In the Justice Department's view, Apple's rise benefited in part from Microsoft's 1998 antitrust case, which was spun off, and now they need another landmark antitrust action to drive technological innovation.
- According to people familiar with the matter, Apple will cut dozens of display engineer jobs in the United States and Asia. The reason for the termination of the project was that the cost and complexity were too large to achieve mass production. This decision was made at the same time as Apple's previous decision to cancel the development of electric vehicles.
Lululemon shares plunged nearly 16% after U.S. demand was sluggish and sales guidance fell short of expectations. Lululemon expects revenue for the fiscal year to reach $10.7 billion to $10.8 billion, up 11%-12% year-over-year, which is significantly lower than the 19% increase last year.
AI topics are related
OpenAI may launch a personal assistant like Jarvis, and the new trademark Voice Engine reveals information. OpenAI's application for the trademark Voice Engine implies that OpenAI may soon launch a product or service developed around the voice engine, which is likely to be a personal assistant product like Siri.
OpenAI plans to enter Hollywood with Sora, meeting with studio and media executives next week.
Turing giants and Chinese experts have drawn a red line for AI, and Geoffrey Hinton, the master of deep learning and the father of neural networks, regretted his lifelong work, and AGI could lead to the "Oppenheimer" disaster within ten years.
Sovereign wealth funds and several investors are vying for more than $1 billion worth of Anthropic's shares. Anthropic has ruled out Saudi investment, and existing Amazon and Google may not take the opportunity to increase their stakes.
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