The Indonesian presidential election has come to an end, and the current defense minister, Prabowo, in his victory speech, directly made clear to the Chinese side that the United States' attempt to strengthen the "anti-China coteria" in Southeast Asia will fail again.
On March 20, local time, the Indonesian Election Commission officially announced the results of the vote count for the 2024 general election, and Prabowo undoubtedly won the final victory and will officially "take over" from Jokowi and become the new president of Indonesia.
In his victory speech, Prabowo publicly mentioned that Indonesia had been divided by imperialists and colonizers for too long for centuries and would no longer dance to the beat of other people's drums, and vowed to eradicate poverty.
Prabowo gives a victory speech
Because Prabowo came to power, he is a bit like Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and he is also teamed up with the son or daughter of the current president.
In the early days of his administration, Marcos Jr. said that he would stick to Duterte's line and continue to be friendly with China, but not long after taking office, he began to fully tilt towards the United States and took the initiative to run into porcelain in the South China Sea, which worsened relations with China.
Therefore, many Western media predict that Prabowo may choose to turn to the United States after taking office, just like Marcos Jr.
But for now, Prabowo has already made his choice. During the election campaign, Prabowo made his attitude clear to the Chinese side. He said that "a thousand friends are too few and one enemy is too many," adding that Indonesia does not want to choose sides between the two blocs, let alone join one against the other.
U.S.-China relations
At the same time, Prabowo also expressed his admiration for China's achievements over the past 40 years, saying that Indonesia should learn from China in poverty eradication.
All of the above proves that he does not intend to turn to the West for the sake of his own power, like Marcos Jr., or act as a pawn of the United States and the West to deal with China.
In his victory speech, he even directly pointed out the issue of "imperialism and colonialism", which to some extent showed the distance between Indonesia and the West. Although it was the Netherlands and Japan that colonized Indonesia, not the United States, it is obviously unlikely that Indonesia will be as close to the United States as the Philippines is based on the friendly relations between these countries and the United States.
Among the current ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Vietnam can be said to be the two most powerful, and they also have a faint meaning of "ASEAN leaders"; it is precisely for this reason that the United States, in order to form its "anti-China small circle," can be regarded as focusing on wooing Indonesia and Vietnam.
U.S. President Joe Biden visits Vietnam
Needless to say, last year, Biden pushed Vietnam to upgrade its diplomatic relations with the United States to the same level as relations with China and Russia, and at the same time, he also expressed his willingness to invest in Vietnam in the fields of economy and science and technology. Indonesia is more favored by the United States because of its key mineral deposits and huge domestic market.
If the United States wants to support anti-China forces in ASEAN, the Philippines is just an appetizer, and its size and strength, as well as the distance between it and China, are not enough to support the anti-China ambitions of the United States, and at best it can only be a thug to stir up the situation in the South China Sea.
But Vietnam and Indonesia are different, these two countries are quite powerful, and if the United States wants to compete with China for influence in Southeast Asia, Vietnam and Indonesia are the key, which is why the Western media is concerned about whether the relationship between China and Indonesia will change after Prabowo comes to power.
However, although Vietnam and Indonesia are very important, it does not mean that the United States will definitely be able to win over the past, even if we do not mention Prabowo's own attitude, only from the perspective of objective reality, the United States will face at least three major obstacles to win over Indonesia.
Indonesians dress up in traditional costumes to participate in the festival
First, Indonesia is an Islamic Muslim country. At present, the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has made the United States' dual face between Israel and Palestine more clearly displayed in front of the world. There is no way to deny the fact that the Biden administration supports Israel in its actions and commits crimes against Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, no matter how good it says it is.
To a certain extent, this has made all Muslim countries, including Indonesia, have a bad view of the United States. Against this backdrop, anyone who is elected president of Indonesia and wants to completely mingle with the United States will have to think carefully about the consequences.
Second, Indonesia is a country with a large population, and its economic development has been very good in recent years. On the one hand, the large population determines that if they want to achieve development, it is not enough to rely on some bait aid, and it is necessary to establish a systematic and relatively complete industry in order to achieve the overall development of the country.
On the other hand, Indonesia, like Vietnam, has developed very well in recent years, and many industrial chains transferred from China have migrated to Indonesia, which makes Indonesia's economy develop rapidly, but it can actually be highly bound to China's production chain and supply chain.
Workers at work in an Indonesian factory
The reason why the United States was able to win over the Philippines relatively easily is that the Philippines has always been outside of China in the past, and the trade cooperation between the two sides is still mainly based on the relatively primitive export of agricultural products from the Philippines to China. China's related industrial chain has not been transferred to the Philippines in large quantities.
That's why, in Marcos's view, the impact of offending China on the Philippine economy may be relatively small. But Indonesia is different, if it really turns to the United States and deteriorates relations with China, their current relatively high speed of development will inevitably be affected, which is obviously what Indonesia does not want to see.
Third, Indonesia's political tendency is relatively weak. At present, all politicians in Southeast Asian countries with a little insight clearly know that ASEAN cannot choose sides between China and the United States, even if it is not close to China, but it must not become a pawn of the United States, otherwise, it may turn itself into the next Ukraine.
In fact, for small and medium-sized countries, the most rational and appropriate way to deal with the great power game is to adopt a relatively balanced foreign policy and avoid taking sides.
ASEAN Summit
But the Philippines is a bit of an exception, because the atmosphere of family politics in the country is very strong, and the Marcos Jr. family has a lot of political influence in the northern Philippines, which makes him sometimes ignore the interests of the Philippines in order to realize his political ambitions.
Indonesia is different, although Indonesia has a certain family political atmosphere, but compared to the Philippines, it is still relatively enlightened, if someone becomes president, but completely disregards Indonesia's national interests, it will definitely not be accepted by the people.
To sum up, not to mention that Prabowo has expressed a neutral position on China and reaffirmed his willingness to continue to expand cooperation with China, even if he does not express it, it will be difficult for Indonesia to become the next Philippines, and the United States wants to expand its "anti-China cotery" in Southeast Asia, which is doomed to fail.