Wu Qing, the new "head" of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, took office for 17 days, and A-shares returned to 3,000 points

界面新闻记者 | 陈靖 孙艺真

On February 7, Wu Qing officially succeeded Yi Huiman as the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the market has high hopes for the new chairman who took office at a difficult time for A-shares.

After Wu Qing took office, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved eight consecutive trading days in the red, and returned to above 3,000 points on February 23, and the Shanghai Composite Index recovered all the losses in 2024.

As of February 23, Wu Qing has been in office for 17 days, although there are 8 days of Spring Festival holiday here, but from the perspective of capital market supervision actions, the new head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission can be described as non-stop.

Since 7 February, the regulator has issued fines to a number of securities firms; at the beginning of the start of construction after the Spring Festival holiday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a series of more than 10 forums within two days, inviting experts, scholars and representatives of all parties in the market to offer suggestions and suggestions; on the afternoon of 19 February, Wu Qing also led a team to the business department of securities companies to discuss and exchange views with more than 10 representatives of individual investors and listen to the opinions of all parties.

As the first chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) from the securities regulatory system, Wu Qing's appointment to take office has been widely praised and highly anticipated by all parties in the market. Institutions have said that the restoration of confidence has become a key variable in the current market trend, and the new appointment of Wu Qing and the introduction of a series of strong regulatory measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission have brought a new atmosphere to the Chinese stock market.

A-shares recorded eight consecutive positives

As the regulators continue to release warmth to the capital market, the risks of the A-share market have gradually resolved, showing a bottom-out rebound.

On February 23, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.55% to return to above 3,000 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded "eight consecutive yangs" in eight trading days, recovering all the losses in 2024.

From the perspective of capital inflows, the main funds and northbound funds showed a net buying trend as a whole.

Overall, before the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon, the market has risen for three consecutive days since February 6. From the perspective of foreign investment trends, Wind data shows that in the past 8 trading days, northbound funds have achieved net buying in 6 days.

Among them, on February 21, northbound funds bought 13.595 billion yuan on a large net basis, which is the second time that northbound funds will buy more than 10 billion yuan in 2024, and it is only 4 trading days after the previous purchase of more than 10 billion yuan. On February 6, the unilateral net purchase of northbound funds reached 12.605 billion yuan.

Image source: Wind Data

In terms of main funds, judging from the recent industry capital flows, most industries have net inflows. Among them, in the past five trading days, the net inflow of the financial sector was 4.985 billion yuan, ranking first among all industries; in terms of sub-sectors, as of February 23, the wind bank index rose 11.43% during the year, the insurance index rose 9.96%, and the brokerage index rose 3.92% in the past 20 trading days. In addition, energy, telecommunication services, real estate, daily consumption, daily consumption, utilities and other industries also ushered in major net inflows.

It is worth mentioning that major broad-based ETFs have recently ushered in an active influx of funds and maintained a strong rally. Wind data shows that since the beginning of 2024, the overall ETF market has ushered in a net inflow of 369.868 billion yuan. In the past month, the CSI 500 ETF has risen by 8.29%, the Harvest CSI 500 ETF has risen by 8.2%, and the Huatai Pineapple CSI 500 ETF has risen by 8.36%.

The "new head" has been non-stop since taking office

Since the beginning of 2024, the A-share market has adjusted sharply, with the Shanghai Composite Index once falling below the 2,800 and 2,700 point mark, and the market's concerns about systemic risks have risen, among which margin risk, stock pledge risk, derivatives trading and quantitative trading risk have become important risk points that the market is concerned about.

How to do a good job in risk prevention and disposal in key areas, be vigilant against the sharp rise and fall of the market, and protect the rights and interests of investors has become an important topic in front of Wu Qing.

After Wu Qing assumed the post of chairman of the new China Securities Regulatory Commission, he carried out intensive work.

On February 8, the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission updated two administrative supervision and punishment regulations in the evening, respectively to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and Ping An Securities to order corrections and issue warning letters, and the violations involved bond issuance.

On Chinese New Year's Eve, February 9, the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an announcement that recently, the organization of inspection and law enforcement and daily supervision forces concentrated on investigating and prosecuting violations of laws and regulations such as stock trading by many practitioners of China Merchants Securities. Rely on criminal accountability, administrative punishments, administrative supervision measures, and internal accountability to carry out three-dimensional punishments. According to the content of the report, 63 employees of China Merchants Securities were administratively punished, with a total fine of 81.73 million yuan.

On February 9, Zhongshan Securities was ordered to take corrective measures by the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau due to problems in private asset management business.

On February 18, the first fine of the Year of the Dragon by the China Securities Regulatory Commission landed. Huaan Securities was ordered to correct administrative supervision measures by the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau due to problems such as imprudent production of research reports such as "Zuojiang Technology".

In addition to issuing frequent fines to non-compliant securities firms, the regulator has also widely accepted suggestions from all walks of life in the market, and the work of the CSRC has shown a new trend.

At the beginning of the new year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a series of more than 10 symposiums, with the participation of experts and scholars, small and medium-sized investors, listed companies, enterprises to be listed, securities and fund operating institutions, accounting law firms, private equity institutions, foreign-funded institutions and other representatives.

Jiemian News learned that the China Securities Regulatory Commission will take multiple measures to stabilize the market and boost investor confidence. Improve the quality of listed companies from the source, focus more on strictly controlling IPO access, strengthen the supervision of the whole process of listed companies, and conduct further research on issues of market concern such as punishing financial fraud, preventing detours and reducing holdings, increasing dividend returns, and strengthening market value management, so as to better enhance investor confidence.

On February 23, at a press conference held by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Li Ming, chief inspector and director of the inspection bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, once again emphasized that insider trading by executives of listed companies must be severely punished, and new illegal cases must be closely monitored.

"We will strengthen the linkage between information disclosure and transaction supervision, carry out multidimensional expansion and analysis of relevant clues, and continue to crack down accurately and efficiently, so that the key few who dare to defy the law can learn a lesson and remember it for a long time; Promptly crack down on the use of new products and technologies to engage in violations of laws and regulations, and eliminate regulatory blind spots. Li Ming said.

For example, he said that some gangs use financial derivatives such as over-the-counter stock options to amplify and manipulate returns, and some people manipulate LOF funds, convertible bonds and other varieties, all of which have been strictly investigated and dealt with.

In addition, Li Ming said that although there are "black sheep" in listed companies, on the whole, listed companies are still representatives of China's outstanding enterprise groups, and they are a demonstration sample of the modern enterprise system, and there are only a few companies that commit fraud and fraud.

Li Ming said frankly, "We understand that the majority of investors are "deep love, responsibility", and also know that there is still a gap between our work and investors' expectations, we will continue to strengthen regulatory law enforcement, focus on promoting the quality of listed companies, and strive to create an investment environment that allows investors to feel at ease and rest assured." ”

On the afternoon of February 19, Wu Qing also led a team to the business department of the brokerage company to discuss and exchange ideas with more than 10 representatives of individual investors.

An insider in the securities regulatory system told Jiemian News, "Wu Qing understands brokers, funds, trading and issuance and the supervision of listed companies, and lets insiders lead the capital market, and the system is full of expectations for Wu Qing's appointment." ”

Wu Qing once wrote an article in China Securities magazine that financial supervision must pay attention to compliance and prudence at the same time, and always prevent and deal with systemic risks in a timely manner. He believes that the basic goal of financial supervision is undoubtedly to protect the legitimate rights and interests of customers and maintain the security of the financial system, but there are no rules on the effective way to achieve the goal, and sometimes they find it and give it up. The willingness of financial institutions to self-regulate and supervise is often unreliable, so there can be no gaps in financial supervision.

The "first fire" burned to the securities lending business

During his early years of work at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing left a deep impression on the market with his tough style of dealing with the risks of problematic securities firms and cracking down the "rat traps" of funds.

After 14 years of leaving the China Securities Regulatory Commission, he returned to the "old unit", and Wu Qing's first fire in office burned to the "thousand-pointed" refinancing securities and institutional shorting.

On February 6, 2024, according to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, three measures were proposed to further strengthen the supervision of securities lending business. The first is to suspend the scale of new refinancing bonds, with the balance of existing refinancing securities as the upper limit, and suspend the scale of new securities companies' refinancing securities in accordance with the law, and gradually close the stock. Second, securities companies are required to strengthen the management of customer trading behaviors, and strictly prohibit the provision of securities lending and borrowing to investors who use securities lending and borrowing to carry out intraday rotation transactions (disguised T+0 transactions);

A series of strong regulatory measures are intended to crack down on malicious shorting, reflecting the determination of regulators to protect the market. According to the data disclosed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, since the implementation of the relevant system, the balance of securities lending and borrowing has dropped by 24% to 63.7 billion yuan, accounting for 0.1% of the circulating market value of A-shares. After the promulgation of the new regulations, fund companies such as E Fund and GF have successively issued announcements to suspend the lending of new refinancing bonds, and the pressure on securities lending will gradually decrease.

At the same time, due to the downward trend in the market value of financing business, stock pledge business guarantee or pledge has brought greater pressure to business development and market documents, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will also issue regulations to deal with the risk of forced liquidation, guide securities firms and other institutions to increase the flexibility of the liquidation line, reduce the risk of forced liquidation, and relieve pressure.

In response to the impact of large-scale stock sales on the normal trading order, on the evening of February 20, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange successively imposed measures on multiple accounts under the name of a large quantitative hedge fund "Ningbo Lingjun" to restrict trading for 3 trading days, because it sold 2.57 billion yuan of shares within one minute after the opening of the market on Monday, February 19.

In addition, on February 22, the China Securities Regulatory Commission responded to foreign media reports such as the regulator's restriction on the net sale of stocks by major institutional investors at the opening and closing stages, and the prohibition of institutions from shorting A-shares through stock index futures in the form of a spokesperson's answer to reporters' questions.

How will the A-share market perform in the future?

Restoring confidence has become a key variable in the current market trend, and Wu Qing's new appointment and the introduction of a series of strong regulatory measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission have brought a new atmosphere to China's stock market. So, how will A-shares be interpreted in the future?

Analysts believe that A-shares will still stand above 3,000 points. Many institutions believe that market confidence is gradually recovering, and the A-share market is expected to continue to unfold.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, said that with the improvement of fundamentals and the release of liquidity risks, the bullish factors of the stock market are accumulating. Zhao Wei believes that there are three positive factors in the current A-share market, one is that when the "steady growth" is carried out, the supporting effect on the economy is expected to gradually appear, the list of "trillion national bonds" projects is issued, the "three major projects" of real estate are accelerated, and the industrial policy is escorted; second, under the low valuation, the broad-spectrum interest rate is lowered, which may be conducive to the rise of capital risk appetite; third, the incremental funds such as "Huijin" are expected to help the market, and at the same time, the tail risk of the market will be weakened.

Xun Yugen, chief economist of Haitong Securities, believes that the current or is at the bottom of the first wave of rebound. In the week before the Spring Festival in 2024, the market rose significantly, with the ChiNext Index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the CSI 300 rising by 19.0%, 8.8%, and 8.2% respectively. From the perspective of the previous adjustment time and space and the valuation cost performance dimension, A-shares may have bottomed out, and the positive factors of the recent capital and policy side have been accumulating, and the market may usher in the first wave of rebound at the bottom.

Song Yiwei, an analyst at Bohai Securities, believes that the further rise of the market will require more reliance on the market's own strength. Looking ahead, if market confidence gradually recovers after the general rise, and drives the spontaneous formation of the main line of the market, the market is expected to continue to unfold under the money-making effect, and the trend of reversal may be formed. On the contrary, if the main line of the market is scattered, the rotation effect will be accelerated after the general rise, and the resonance effect of funds is not strong, and the index will also enter the correction stage after the rebound.

Guotai Junan released a research report saying that considering the deep adjustment of the small and medium-sized market capitalization sector in the early stage, as well as the historically low level of the two financial guarantee ratios, the expected revision of high-risk preference investors has basically ended, and the "transaction bottom" brought about by the clearing of the micro transaction structure has been confirmed;