China's Fertility Cost Report: The average cost of raising a child from the age of 0 to the age of college is about 680,000

The following article is from the Yuwa Population Study, and the author is the Yuwa Population Study

China Fertility Cost Report 2024 Edition

Liang Jianzhang, Huang Wenzheng, He Yafu

Yuwa's team of experts

2024/02

     #目录#

1. Per capita consumption expenditure and its composition

2. Estimate the average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in a national family

3. Estimate the cost of parenting during college

4. Estimate the average cost of raising children for urban and rural households

5. Estimate the average cost of raising children in 31 provinces

6. Estimate the average cost of parenting for high-income, middle-income, and low-income households

7. Estimate the cost of raising one, two, and three children in urban and rural areas

8. The time cost and opportunity cost of raising a child

   8.1 Types of Time Costs and Opportunity Costs

   8.2 Parenting leads to a decrease in paid working hours

   8.3 Parenting has led to a decline in women's wage rates

   8.4 Parenting leads to less leisure time

9. International Comparison of Parenting Costs

10. International comparison of ideal number of children

11. The number of marriages and the marriage rate in China have been declining for many years

12. Recommend policies to reduce the cost of childbearing

13. Specific measures to reduce the cost of childbirth

  1) Cash and tax subsidies

  2) Housing purchase subsidy

  3) Construct additional nurseries

  4) Provide equal parental leave for men and women

  5) Introduce foreign workers, including foreign nannies

  6) Promote flexible office models

  7) Guarantee the reproductive rights of single women

  8) Assisted reproductive technology is permitted

  9) Education reform (reduce the internal volume of the college entrance examination and shorten the school system)

14. Conclusion

appendix

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 summary

The 2022 edition of this report was released in February 2022 and mainly uses the China Statistical Yearbook 2020 data on national household income and consumption expenditure, as well as various commodity prices, to estimate various childcare expenses. The 2024 edition of this report mainly uses the data of China Statistical Yearbook 2023 to re-estimate various childcare costs, and focuses on updating the time cost and opportunity cost of female childbirth. This report draws on the research results of a number of relevant papers, which are detailed in the references at the end.

For the purposes of this report, the term "cost of childbirth" includes both the cost of pregnancy and childbirth (i.e., the cost of childbirth), as well as the cost of parenting and education (i.e., the cost of childbearing). Among them, the "cost of education" accounts for the majority, and the "cost of childbirth" accounts for only a small part. In addition, the cost of fertility also includes the cost of time and the cost of opportunity. In this report, the terms "cost of childbirth" and "cost of parenting" are used synonymously.

The cost of childbirth is one of the most important factors affecting the fertility intention of families of childbearing age. According to the results of the national fertility sample survey conducted by the former National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2017, the top three reasons for women of childbearing age not to plan to have children were "heavy financial burden", "too old" and "no one to take care of children", accounting for 77.4%, 45.6% and 33.2% respectively.

According to the data of the China Statistical Yearbook 2023, in 2022, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents nationwide will be 24,538 yuan, of which the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents will be 30,391 yuan, and the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents will be 16,632 yuan. Through research and analysis, this report concludes as follows:

The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 is 538,000 yuan, and the average cost of raising a child from 0 to 17 years old is about 680,000 yuan.

By urban and rural areas:

The average cost of raising an urban child aged 0-17 is 667,000 yuan, and the average cost of raising a rural child aged 0-17 is 365,000 yuan.

By province:

The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in Shanghai and Beijing is 1.01 million yuan and 936,000 yuan, respectively. In comparison, the average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in Tibetan families is only 349,000 yuan, and the average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in Qinghai Province is only 379,000 yuan.

By income level:

The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 from low-income families is 125533 yuan, or about 126,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in lower-middle-income families is 281,730 yuan, or about 282,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in middle-income families is 446582 yuan, or about 447,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 from upper-middle-income families is 691765 yuan, or about 692,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 from a high-income group is 1315254 yuan, or about 1.315 million yuan.

According to the number of children in urban and rural households:

The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in urban areas is 667,000 yuan;

The average cost of raising a second child aged 0-17 in urban areas is 525,000 yuan;

The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in urban areas is 399,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in rural areas is 463,000 yuan;

The average cost of raising a second child aged 0-17 in rural areas is 365,000 yuan;

The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in rural areas is 277,000 yuan.

International comparison of the cost of parenting: the cost of raising a child until the age of 18 is a multiple of GDP per capita in Australia is 2.08 times, France is 2.24 times, Sweden is 2.91 times, Germany is 3.64 times, the United States is 4.11 times, Japan is 4.26 times, and China is 6.3 times, which is almost the highest in the world.

In addition to the direct financial costs, families of childbearing age also need to pay a lot of time costs and opportunity costs to raise children. The cost of time includes time spent on maternity leave, time spent caring for and picking up children, time spent tutoring children with homework, increased time spent on housework. According to the data of the China Family Tracking Survey released by the China Social Science Survey Center of Peking University, it is found that in the nearly ten years from 2010 to 2018, the weekly homework tutoring time of parents of primary school students increased from 3.67 hours to 5.88 hours, and the weekly tutoring time of parents of junior high school students increased from 1.56 hours to 3.03 hours.

Studies have shown that parenting leads to a decrease in women's paid working hours, mainly before the child is 4 years old. But the paid working hours of Chinese men did not change significantly after becoming fathers. Between the ages of 0 and 3, the average weekly working hours for women are reduced by 15 hours, 12.5 hours, 5 hours, and 7 hours, respectively. The total number of hours of work reduced for women aged 0-4 years was 2,106 hours. If calculated at an hourly wage of 30 yuan, the cost of reduced working hours for women when the child is 4 years old is 63,180 yuan, or about 63,000 yuan.

Studies have found that parenting significantly reduces the amount of leisure time mothers have. In one-child families, when children are 0~6 years old, 7~12 years old and 13~18 years old, the mother's weekly leisure time decreases by 12.6 hours, 7.7 hours and 5.0 hours respectively. For two-child families of the corresponding age group, mothers' leisure time per week was reduced by 14.0 hours, 9.1 hours and 8.6 hours respectively. Overall, the average mother's leisure time per week decreased by 8.7 hours between the ages of 0 and 18 for a child and 10.8 hours less per week for a second child between the ages of 0 and 18.

Raising children also reduces the father's leisure time. In one-child families, when children are 0~6 years old, 7~12 years old and 13~18 years old, the father's weekly leisure time decreases by 8.8 hours, 5.5 hours and 2.8 hours respectively. For two-child families of the corresponding age group, fathers' leisure time per week was reduced by 10.5 hours, 7.5 hours and 4.1 hours respectively. Overall, the average father's leisure time per week decreased by 5.9 hours between the ages of 0 and 18 for a child and 8.2 hours less per week for a second child between the ages of 0 and 18.

Having children can also lead to a decrease in women's wage rates. According to the data of multiple papers, each child in China will lead to a 12%-17% drop in women's wage rate, with the lower bound of 12% being estimated after controlling for other variables in the same paper. In addition, the magnitude of the decline in women's wages varies from year to year.

Due to the high cost of childbirth and the difficulty of women to balance family and work, the average fertility intention (ideal number of children) of Chinese is almost the lowest in the world. According to OECD data, the average ideal number of children in most countries is more than 2, and the results of multiple fertility willingness surveys show that the average ideal number of children for Chinese is less than 2.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of births in China in 2023 will be 9.02 million, and the birth rate will be 6.39 per thousand. It can be seen that in 2023, China's birth population and birth rate will both hit the lowest level since 1949. China's birth population has been declining since 2017, and the number of births in 2023 will decline for the seventh consecutive year. The number of births in 2023 is less than half of that in 2016, and it is not an exaggeration to describe the current population situation as a collapse in the number of births. In 2023, China's total fertility rate will only be about 1.0, which is not only lower than almost all countries in the world, but also much lower than Japan, which has a severe low birthrate and aging population.

The high cost of childbearing is one of the most important negative factors affecting the fertility intention of families of childbearing age. Therefore, there is an urgent need to introduce policies at the national level to reduce the cost of childbirth for families of childbearing age as soon as possible. Specific measures include cash and tax subsidies, subsidies for housing purchases, the construction of additional nurseries, the provision of equal parental leave for men and women, the introduction of foreign nannies, the promotion of hybrid work, the protection of reproductive rights for single women, the approval of assisted reproductive technologies, and the reform of the college entrance examination and school system.

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1. The per capita consumption expenditure of residents and its composition

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents nationwide will be 24,538 yuan, of which the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents will be 30,391 yuan, and the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents will be 16,632 yuan.

The per capita consumption expenditure and composition of residents in 2022 are shown in the following table:

Table 1: Composition of per capita consumption expenditure in 2022

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Figure 1: National per capita consumption expenditure and its composition in 2022

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

2. Estimate the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in national families

Note: In this report, 0-2 years old refers to 0 to less than 3 years old;

3-5 years old refers to 3 years old to less than 6 years old, corresponding to the kindergarten stage;

6-14 years old refers to the age of 6 to less than 15 years old, corresponding to the nine-year compulsory education stage;

15-17 years old refers to 15 to less than 18 years old, corresponding to high school;

18-21 years old refers to 18 to under 22 years old, corresponding to the undergraduate level.

The cost of parenting consists of the following two parts:

The first is consumption expenditure, which includes two categories: education expenditure and non-education expenditure. Educational expenses include nanny fees, childcare fees, tuition and miscellaneous fees, textbooks, reference books, extracurricular books, educational software fees, transportation expenses for studying, school selection fees, school accommodation fees, extracurricular tutoring fees, and other educational expenses. Non-education expenditures include food expenditures, clothing expenditures, housing expenditures, daily necessities expenditures, health care expenditures, transportation and communication expenditures, and entertainment expenditures.

The second is non-consumption expenditure, including insurance expenditure, personal exchange expenditure, donations, etc.

Consumer spending is a major part of the cost of parenting, and non-consumption expenditure accounts for only a small part of the cost of parenting. The cost of parenting estimated in this report refers mainly to consumer expenditure.

According to the per capita consumption expenditure data of residents in 2022, if the consumption expenditure of all age groups is the same, then the average expenditure of raising children to just reach the age of 18 is: 24,538 * 18 = 441684 yuan, of which, the average cost of raising children in urban areas is 30,391 * 18 = 547038 yuan, and the average cost of raising children in rural areas is 16,632 * 18 = 299376 yuan.

However, in reality, consumer spending is not the same across age groups, so the above estimated costs are not accurate. The average cost of parenting at different stages is estimated separately below.

The first is the cost during pregnancy, including card filing, nutrition products, prenatal examination fees and pregnancy preparation supplies, with an estimated average expenditure of about 10,000 yuan.

This is followed by the cost of childbirth and confinement, including hospitalization, vaginal or caesarean section, and painless delivery for some women. The high and low standards for this fee vary widely, with an estimated average expenditure of $15,000. If you need to go to a confinement center after giving birth, the cost is higher.

On the one hand, infants and young children do not need to spend on tobacco, alcohol and communication, and on the other hand, infants and young children spend more on milk powder and diapers than adults. Assuming that the per capita consumption expenditure of infants and young children aged 0-2 years is the same, the average annual consumption expenditure is 24,538 yuan, and the total consumption expenditure for three years is 73,614 yuan.

The cost of raising children aged 3-5 years old, on the basis of per capita consumption expenditure, plus an average of 1,000 yuan per month (that is, 12,000 yuan per year) of kindergarten or preschool education expenditure, the average annual cost of raising children is 24,538 + 12,000 = 36,538 yuan, a total of 109614 yuan for three years.

The cost of education for children aged 6-17 is higher, while parents themselves spend much less on education. For example, data from the China Family Longitudinal Survey CFPS2010-2018 released by the China Social Science Survey Center (ISSS) at Peking University shows that the cost of raising children accounts for nearly 50% of household income, and education expenditure accounts for 34% of the cost of raising children.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2022, the per capita expenditure of residents in the country will be 2,469 yuan. Suppose there is an ordinary family of three (father, mother, and children who are in middle school), then the total expenditure of the family on education, culture and entertainment in 2022 is 2469*3=7407 yuan. Under normal circumstances, children account for the majority of the family's expenditure on education, culture and entertainment, and parents only account for a small part. Therefore, we can estimate that the educational, cultural and entertainment expenditure of the children in this family is 2469*2=4938 yuan, while the educational, cultural and entertainment expenditure of the parents is 2469 yuan.

According to the above estimation method, we can add an educational, cultural and entertainment expenditure of 2469 yuan on the basis of the per capita consumption expenditure of 24,538 yuan (including an educational, cultural and entertainment expenditure), that is, calculated at 2022 prices, the average annual parenting cost is 24,538 + 2,469 = 27,007 yuan, a total of 243063 yuan in nine years.

Considering that high school is no longer compulsory education, and some high school students live in school, we add 2,000 yuan per year to the cost of raising children aged 6-14 on the basis of the cost of raising children aged 15-17 for three years, that is, the average annual parenting cost is 27,007 + 2,000 = 29,007 yuan, a total of 87,021 yuan for three years.

Table 2: Average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in China

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Yuwa Population

According to the above method, the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 is 538312 yuan, that is, about 538,000 yuan.

3. Estimate the cost of parenting during college

Although Chinese law stipulates that 18 years old is the age of majority, and parents are not obliged to support their children who have reached the age of 18, in fact, most college students still rely on their parents to pay for tuition and living expenses, so it is also necessary to estimate the cost of raising children for four years of college.

Tuition fees at public universities vary depending on the major, but are generally 5,000-8,000 yuan per academic year, and 8,000-10,000 yuan per academic year for individual majors (such as art, music performance, etc.). The tuition fee of private universities is generally 12,000-20,000 yuan per academic year. The accommodation fee is about 1000-2000 yuan per academic year. The average annual tuition fee of public universities and private universities is calculated at 10,000 yuan, the accommodation fee is calculated at 1,500 yuan per year, and the living expenses are calculated at 2,000 yuan per month, so the annual parenting cost during the undergraduate period is: 10,000 + 1,500 + 24,000 = 35,500 yuan, a total of 142,000 yuan for four years.

Table 3: National average cost of parenting from age 0 to college graduation

Source: Yuwa Population

According to the above method, the average cost of raising children from the age of 0 to the undergraduate is 680312 yuan, that is, about 680,000 yuan.

In fact, the cost of raising children in urban areas is higher than that of children in rural areas, and the cost of raising children in high-income families is higher than that of low-income families. Therefore, it is also necessary to estimate the cost of raising children of urban residents, rural residents, high-income families, middle-income families and low-income families.

4. Estimate the average cost of raising children in urban and rural areas

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents in 2022 was 123.85% of the national per capita consumption expenditure, while the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents was 67.78% of the national per capita consumption expenditure.

According to the above ratio, the average cost of raising an urban child aged 0-17 is 666699 yuan, or about 667,000 yuan, and the average cost of raising a rural child aged 0-17 is 364868 yuan, or about 365,000 yuan.

As for the cost of raising children in college for four years, whether it is an urban child or a rural child, the tuition fee and accommodation fee are the same, and the difference is mainly the cost of living.

Table 4: Average cost of raising a child in urban and rural areas across the country

Source: Yuwa Population

5. Estimate the average cost of raising children in 31 provinces

According to the data of Table 6-20 of the China Statistical Yearbook 2023, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents in Beijing in 2022 is 42,683 yuan, equivalent to 174% of the national per capita consumption expenditure, and the per capita consumption expenditure of Shanghai residents is 46,045 yuan, equivalent to 188% of the national per capita consumption expenditure.

If the proportion of the cost of raising children aged 0-17 in the 31 provinces is also the same as the proportion of per capita consumption expenditure in the 31 provinces, then we can get the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in the 31 provinces, as shown in Table 5:

Table 5: Average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 by region

 Source: Yuwa Population

As can be seen from Table 5, the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in Shanghai and Beijing is 1.01 million yuan and 936,000 yuan, respectively. In comparison, the average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in Tibetan families is only 349,000 yuan, and the average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in Qinghai Province is only 379,000 yuan.

6. Estimate the average cost of raising children for high-income, middle-income and low-income families

According to the China Statistical Yearbook 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents in China in 2022 was 36,883 yuan.

Per capita disposable income of 20% low-income families: 8,601 yuan

Per capita disposable income of households in the lower middle income group: 19,303 yuan

The per capita disposable income of households in the 20% middle-income group: 30,598 yuan

Per capita disposable income of households in the upper middle income group of 20%: 47,397 yuan

The per capita disposable income of 20% of high-income families: 90,116 yuan

From the above data, it can be seen that:

The per capita disposable income of low-income households was 23.32% of the national per capita disposable income.

The per capita disposable income of lower-middle-income households was 52.34% of the national per capita disposable income.

The per capita disposable income of middle-income households is 82.96% of the national per capita disposable income.

The per capita disposable income of households in the upper-middle-income group was 128.51% of the national per capita disposable income.

The per capita disposable income of high-income households was 244.33% of the national per capita disposable income.

If the cost of raising a child in a quintile is also in accordance with the above ratio, then:

The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 from low-income families is 125533 yuan, or about 126,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in lower-middle-income families is 281,730 yuan, or about 282,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in middle-income families is 446582 yuan, or about 447,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 from upper-middle-income families is 691765 yuan, or about 692,000 yuan.

The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 from a high-income group is 1315254 yuan, or about 1.315 million yuan.

Table 6: Average cost of raising children aged 0-17 by income level (RMB)

Source: Yuwa Population

7. Estimate the cost of raising one, two, and three children in urban and rural areas

The above estimates assume that boys and girls have the same cost of raising and that there is no distinction between children. In fact, the cost of raising a child is different. According to the USDA survey report, the cost of raising a single child is 27% higher than the average cost per child in a two-child household, while the cost of raising a child in a family of three or more is 24% lower than the average cost per child in a two-child household. In other words, if the cost of raising an only child is 1, then the average cost of raising a child in a two-child family is 0.7874, and the average cost of raising a child in a family of three children or more is 0.5984.

Considering the difference in fertility rates between urban and rural areas in China, it is reasonable to assume that the average cost of raising an urban child in this report is closer to that of an urban one-child family, and the average cost of raising a rural child in this report is closer to that of a rural two-child family.

If a family has two children, then the clothes, crawling mats, toys, etc. of the first child can also be used by the second child, which can save some expenses. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the average clothing expenditure of residents in the country in 2022 is 1,365 yuan, and we can reasonably speculate that half of the clothes of the second child at the age of 0-2 years old use the old clothes of the first child, and the other half are newly bought. In this way, the cost of clothing for raising a second child can save 683 yuan a year. In addition, children aged 0-2 do not have to have a separate room, which can save 5,882 yuan in living expenses. In this way, the clothing and living expenses of raising a second child aged 0-2 years old can save a total of 6,565 yuan per year. If the second child of a family is four or five years older than the first child, then the first child can also help the parents take care of the second child, thus saving the parents' time and energy in taking care of the second child.

As mentioned earlier, the cost of raising a 0-2-year-old baby, assuming the same as the per capita consumption expenditure, is an average of 24,538 yuan per year. If it is to raise a second child, then the average annual cost of raising a second child aged 0-2 is 24538-6565 = 17973 yuan. It can be seen that the parenting cost of the second child aged 0-2 years is 6565/24538=26.75% lower than that of the first child, or the parenting cost of the first child aged 0-2 years old is 6565/17973=36.53% higher than that of the second child.

But for children aged 3-5 and 6-17, because the cost of attending kindergarten and learning need to be paid separately, and when the child grows up, he also needs a separate room, so the savings in all aspects will not be as much as the savings at the age of 0-2. If the proportion of one-, two-, and three-child parenting costs for Chinese families aged 0-17 is the same as that of American families (i.e., the average ratio of one-, two-, and three-child families is 1:0.7874:0.5984), then the average cost of raising one-, two-, and three-child families in urban and rural China is shown in Table 7:

Table 7: Parenting costs for children aged 0-17 in urban and rural areas

Source: Yuwa Population

Figure 2: The cost of raising children aged 0-17 in urban and rural areas (RMB)

 Source: Yuwa Population

8. The time cost and opportunity cost of raising children

8.1 Types of Time Costs and Opportunity Costs

The direct cost of raising a child was estimated earlier, and in fact, there is also a lot of time and opportunity cost to raise a child in a family of childbearing age.

The cost of time to raise a child includes:

1) Take maternity leave. According to the Special Provisions on Labor Protection for Female Workers in the Mainland, female employees are entitled to 98 days of maternity leave, of which 15 days are allowed before giving birth, 15 days of maternity leave are added in case of difficult birth, and 15 days of maternity leave are added for each additional child born in case of multiple births. The recent revision of the new family planning regulations in various provinces has generally extended maternity leave (to 158 days in most provinces) and added parental leave. Although extending maternity leave can help women have more time to take care of their children and help families raise children, if the cost of extending maternity leave is borne by enterprises, it will inevitably lead companies to avoid hiring women of childbearing age as much as possible, thus exacerbating gender discrimination against women in the job market.

2) Time spent on babysitting and picking up and dropping off children. If you hire a nanny or confinement lady to take care of the child, or send the child under the age of 3 to a nursery, the time cost can be reduced, but the cost of expenses will be increased. Children aged 3-5 are generally sent to kindergarten, which can reduce the time cost of parents, but it also takes a certain amount of time to pick up and drop off children to kindergarten. Children aged 6-11 who go to primary school generally need to be picked up by their parents. If the school's start and end times coincide with the parents' commute times, it will take less time to pick up and drop off the child, and if the time is not synchronized, it will take more time to pick up and drop off the child.

3) Time to tutor your child with homework. According to the data of the China Family Tracking Survey released by the China Social Science Survey Center of Peking University, it is found that in the nearly ten years from 2010 to 2018, the weekly homework tutoring time of parents of primary school students increased from 3.67 hours to 5.88 hours, and the weekly tutoring time of parents of junior high school students increased from 1.56 hours to 3.03 hours.

4) Raising children can also lead to an increase in the amount of time women spend doing housework and a decrease in leisure time and gainful work. According to Xu Qi, an associate professor at the School of Sociology at Nanjing University, in a paper published in the July 2018 issue of Women's Studies Series, "Where Has Time Gone? After giving birth to children, women will work an average of 2.811 hours less per day and 2.106 hours less leisure time than when they were unmarried, and almost all of these reduced hours will be added to housework.

In terms of opportunity cost, female employees taking maternity leave will lead to a disconnection between female employees and the workplace, and if the maternity leave is too long, a long period of absence from work may cause a decline in job skills, affecting their competitiveness after returning to work, which is the opportunity cost of raising children.

Being transferred or reduced in salary, and passively losing promotion opportunities during the marriage and childbirth stage are the unfair treatment that women in marriage and childbirth may encounter in the workplace. There are also some working women who give up working for a few years in order to take care of their children after marriage and childbirth, but housewives will encounter many difficulties when they return to the workplace after a few years, because she is likely to have been seriously disconnected from the corporate culture and job content, and may be at the same level as the ability level of newcomers in the workplace when they are reemployed after a few years, while under the same conditions, enterprises are more willing to recruit newcomers based on factors such as learning ability and social security contribution rate.

According to a paper published in the fourth issue of Population and Economy in 2021, "The Marginal Opportunity Cost of Having a Second Child in Chinese Families: Based on the Perspective of Income Stratification", Wang Jun, a doctoral student at the School of Sociology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, and Shi Renbing, a professor at the school, showed that the probability of finding a wife with one child decreased by about 6.6% compared with before childbearing, and the probability of employment with a second child dropped by 9.3% again. However, the effect of childbearing behavior on the husband's employment probability was not significant.

According to the survey data released in December 2021 by the Fourth Survey on the Social Status of Chinese Women, jointly organized by the All-China Women's Federation and the National Bureau of Statistics, 76.1%, 67.5% and 63.6% of children aged 0-17 are mainly responsible for daily life care, tutoring and pick-up and drop-off, respectively. The average working day of working women is 649 minutes, of which 495 minutes are paid work, and 154 minutes of housework such as caring for family members, cooking, cleaning, and daily shopping, which is about twice that of men.

At present, the time and opportunity costs of raising children in Chinese families are mainly borne by women, and it is difficult for them to juggle the heavy work of raising children at the same time. Due to the current social environment in China that is not friendly enough for women to have children, the time cost and opportunity cost for women to have children are too high, and some women have to give up having children in exchange for the opportunity to succeed in their careers. This is one of the reasons for China's low fertility rate.

We recommend that policy measures such as vigorously developing inclusive childcare services, providing equal parental leave for men and women, promoting working from home, and introducing foreign nannies can help reduce the time and opportunity costs paid by women, as detailed in Section 13 of this report.

8.2 Parenting leads to a decrease in paid working hours

According to a working paper by He Yuchen and Yu Jia of the Center for Social Research at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, the results of a study based on longitudinal data from the 2010-2020 CFPS show that childbearing has different effects on the timing of men and women in China. Giving birth to children in Chinese women leads to an increase in the amount of time spent on housework and a decrease in the amount of time spent on work, leisure (recreation), sleep, and physical activity. But the paid working hours of Chinese men did not change significantly after becoming fathers.

Specifically, when children are 0 to 3 years old, the average number of hours worked per week for women is reduced by 15 hours, 12.5 hours, 5 hours, and 7 hours, respectively. After the child is 4 years old and beyond, the average weekly working hours of women gradually return to pre-childbearing levels. See the table below for details:

Table 8: Reduced working hours (hours) for women after childbirth

Source: Working papers by He Yuchen and Yu Jia, Center for Social Research, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University

The total number of hours of work reduced for women aged 0-4 years was 2,106 hours. If calculated at an hourly wage of 30 yuan (the hourly wage for Foxconn's Zhengzhou factory in 2022 is 30 yuan), when the child is 4 years old, the cost of the reduced working hours for women is 63,180 yuan, that is, about 63,000 yuan.

The study also showed that women with a high school education or less reduced their weekly working hours by 20 hours in the first year of their child's life, while women with a college degree or higher reduced their weekly working hours by only 10 hours, but the reduction in working hours for women with higher education lasted longer, not just before the child was 4 years old. The results of several studies have shown that women with children aged 3 and younger have the largest reduction in working hours.

According to the research of Du Fenglian et al., mothers in one-child families reduce their working hours by an average of 10.9 hours per week when their children are 0-6 years old, as detailed in the following table:

Table 9: Reduced working hours (hours) of mothers of one-child households

Source: Du Fenglian et al., "The Cost of Childcare Time in China's Urban Families"

8.3 Parenting has led to a decline in women's wage rates

Raising children can also lead to a decline in women's long-term wage earnings. After giving birth, women may choose jobs that make it easier for them to take care of their children but pay less in order to take care of their families.

According to Yu Jia and Xie Yu's paper "The Impact of Childbirth on the Wage Rate of Women in the Mainland" published in the first issue of Population Research in 2014, compared with women who do not have children, having one child will reduce women's wage rate by 7%, and having two children will reduce women's wage rate by 16.8%.

According to Xu Qi's paper "From Paternal Salary Premium to Motherhood Salary Penalty" published in the 5th issue of Sociological Research in 2021 by Xu Qi of the School of Sociology of Nanjing University, every child born will reduce women's annual wage income by 17.0% and hourly wage by 17.4%. But the difference between the market sector and the state sector is significant. In the public sector, women's annual and hourly wages fall by 12.2 per cent and 12.7 per cent for every child born, while in the market sector, the punitive effects of childbirth on women's annual wages and hourly wages are as high as 29.1 per cent and 29.3 per cent.

According to the paper "Wage Rate, "Fertility Trap" and Unobservable Types, published in the fifth issue of Economic Research Journal in 2013, Jia Nan, Gan Li, and Zhang Jie will cause a 18% drop in women's wage rate in the year of childbirth.

According to Zhang Chuanchuan's paper "The Impact of the Number of Children on the Labor Supply and Wages of Married Women" published in the fifth issue of Population and Economy in 2011, using data from the 2004-2006 China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), it was found that having one more child in urban women would reduce wages by 76%.

According to Wang Jun and Shi Renbing's paper "The Marginal Opportunity Cost of Having a Second Child in Chinese Families: Based on the Perspective of Income Stratification" published in the fourth issue of Population and Economy in 2021, the CFPS 2010-2018 Phase 5 tracking data found that having one child would reduce the total household income (including the income of the father and mother) by 5.6%, and the total income of families with a second child would drop by 7.1% again.

Motherhood penalties are related to the age of the child. According to Shen Chao's paper "Widening Inequality: The Evolution of Motherhood Punishment (1989-2015)" by Shen Chao of the School of Social Sciences of Tsinghua University, the motherhood punishment effect is greater at the end of childbirth in women, and gradually weakens as the time point of childbearing becomes farther away (the children are getting older). In addition, the phenomenon of maternity punishment has been increasing in recent years. When controlling for age and region, in 1989 each additional child resulted in a 9.41% reduction in women's wage rate, and in 2015, each additional child resulted in a 17.47% reduction in women's wage rate.

The above table of findings is as follows:

Table 10: National studies on maternity pay penalties

As can be seen from the table above, Zhang Chuanchuan gave the largest drop in the wage rate due to the birth of one child, reaching 76%, while Yu Jia and Xie Yu gave the smallest drop in the wage rate, only 7%. The data given by Xu Qi, Jia Nan, and Shen Chao are not much different, and each child will cause the female wage rate to drop by about 17%. Based on data from multiple papers, we estimate that each child born in China will lead to a 12%-17% drop in women's wages, with the lower bound of 12% being estimated after controlling for other variables in the same paper. In addition, the magnitude of the decline in women's wages varies from year to year.

Many foreign research papers on the punishment of motherhood pay have come to a statistically significant conclusion that giving birth to a child will lead to a decrease in the mother's wage rate, but the specific magnitude of the decline is inconsistent with the data given by different research results.

Budig, Michelle J., and Paula England, in their 2001 paper "The Wage Penalty for Motherhood," published in the American Sociological Review, used data from the 1982-1993 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth) and a fixed-effect model to study maternity pay penalties, which showed that for each child born, the maternal wage rate decreased by 7%. Because mothers with more children have less work experience, the rate of maternal wages decreases by 5 per cent for each child born after work experience control.

Shelly Lundberg and Elaina Rose's paper, "Parenthood and the earnings of married men and women," published in the sixth issue of Labour Economics in 2000, found that the birth of the first child leads to a redistribution of time and energy among married couples. On average, having the first child reduces the rate of wages for mothers by 5% and increases for fathers by 9%. Mothers' working hours were reduced by 45%, but there was no significant change in fathers' working hours across the sample.

根据Deborah J.Anderson 等人在2003年发表的论文“The Motherhood Wage Penalty Revisited: Experience, Heterogeneity, Work Effort, and Work Schedule Flexibility”，采用1968-1988年的美国National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Young Women（NLSYW）的数据研究发现，每生一个孩子，女性的工资率下降10%，但与女性的受教育程度有关，无孩女性的平均受教育年限为13.2年，有孩女性的平均受教育年限为12.5年。

Jorge M. Agüeroa, Mindy Marksb, and Neha Raykar's 2012 paper, "The Wage Penalty for Motherhood in Developing Countries," conducted a standardized household survey of nearly 130,000 women in 21 developing countries, found that for each additional child a woman hath compared to a childless woman, her wage income decreases by 22 percent. If age, education and marital status are taken into account, a woman's salary will be reduced by 7 per cent for each additional child.

根据Jeremy Staff 等人 2012年2月发表在Demography 杂志的论文“Explaining the Motherhood Wage Penalty During the Early Occupational Career”，女性每生育一个孩子，工资率下降6%。

根据马里兰大学教授Joan R. Kahn 等人在2014年发表的论文“The Motherhood Penalty at Midlife: Long-Term Effects of Children on Women’s Careers”，采用1968–2003的美国National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women数据研究发现，女性生一个孩子，工资率下降5.2%；生两个孩子，工资率下降12.2%；生三个孩子，工资率下降17.2%。

According to the 2016 paper "The Motherhood Wage Penalty in Times of Transition" published by Olena Y. Nizalova et al., Ukrainian women having only one child would reduce the wage rate by 17% and having two children would reduce the wage rate by 29%. On average, each child born falls by 19 per cent in the wage rate.

According to Maki TAKEUCHI's 2018 paper "Motherhood Penalty in Japan," Japanese women who have one child have a 4% drop in wages, two children who have a 12% drop in wages, and women with preschool children in their families have a 4%-6% drop in wages.

According to the 2019 paper "Child Penalties Across Countries: Evidence and Explanations" by Henrik Keven et al., the reasons for women's declining earnings after childbirth include lower employment rates, fewer hours worked, and lower wage rates. The paper, which looked at motherhood penalties in the Nordic countries Sweden and Denmark, the English-speaking countries of the United Kingdom and the United States, and the German-speaking countries of Germany and Austria, showed that in the long term (5 to 10 years after having a child), mothers' incomes fell by 27% and 21% in Sweden and Denmark, 44% and 31% in the United Kingdom and the United States, and 61% and 51% respectively in Germany and Austria.

根据Henrik Kleven等人在2018年发表的论文“Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark”，女性生育第一个孩子后，工资率下降约9%。

According to a report published by the TUC (British Trade Union Confederation) in 2016, "The Motherhood Pay Penalty", 42-year-old women with children in the UK have a 7% lower pay rate compared to childless women from the same background.

It is important to note that the above-mentioned data on the decline in mothers' income, which includes factors such as the decline in the employment rate, the decline in working hours, and the decline in the wage rate, are broader than the data on the decline in the wage rate alone.

出台促进性别平等的政策也有助于减轻母职惩罚。 根据Petersen等人在 2014年发表的论文“From Motherhood Penalties to Husband Premia: The New Challenge for Gender Equality and Family Policy，Lessons from Norway”，从上个世纪七十年代末到九十年代中期，挪威由于出台了广泛的性别平等政策，到1990年代中期，对于有一个、两个和三个及以上子女的家庭而言，在人口层面，母职工资惩罚分别仅为1.4%、2.5% 和 3.9%，而在职业层面，母职工资惩罚下降到接近于零（0.4%、0.4%、0.8%）。

The results of foreign studies on maternity pay penalties are as follows:

Table 11: Foreign studies on maternity pay penalties

Based on the research results of many foreign papers, if the intermediate data is taken, for every child born, the female wage rate decreases by about 7%. In China, for every child born, women's wages fall by about 17 percent. Therefore, we estimate that the punishment of motherhood pay in China may be more severe than in Europe and the United States.

8.4 Parenting leads to less leisure time

Du Fenglian, Zhao Yunxia, and Zhong Senli from the School of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia University, co-authored and published in the Journal of Labor Economics Research in 2023, Issue 3, "The Cost of Childcare Time in China's Urban Families", used the data of the 2017 China Time Use Survey (CTUS) to study the impact of parenting on parents' time allocation, and estimated the cost of family childcare time. Studies have found that parenting significantly reduces the amount of leisure time mothers have. In one-child families, when children are 0~6 years old, 7~12 years old and 13~18 years old, the mother's daily leisure time is reduced by 1.8 hours, 1.1 hours and 0.7 hours respectively, and the weekly leisure time is reduced by 12.6 hours, 7.7 hours and 5.0 hours respectively. For two-child families of the corresponding age group, the mother's daily leisure time is reduced by 2.0 hours, 1.3 hours and 1.2 hours respectively, and the weekly leisure time is reduced by 14.0 hours, 9.1 hours and 8.6 hours respectively, as detailed in the following table:

Table 12: Reduced leisure time for mothers of one-child and two-child households (hours)

Source: Du Fenglian et al.'s paper "The Cost of Childcare Time in China's Urban Families"

According to the above data, the total number of leisure hours lost by one-child mothers due to child-rearing reached 8,564 hours, or an average of 8.7 hours per week, when the two-child family was 18 years old, the total number of leisure hours reduced due to raising two children reached 10,651 hours, or an average decrease of 10.8 hours per week.

Raising children also reduces the father's leisure time. In one-child families, when children are 0~6 years old, 7~12 years old and 13~18 years old, the father's daily leisure time is reduced by 1.3 hours, 0.8 hours and 0.4 hours respectively, and the weekly leisure time is reduced by 8.8 hours, 5.5 hours and 2.8 hours respectively. For two-child families of the corresponding age group, the father's daily leisure time is reduced by 1.5 hours, 1.1 hours and 0.6 hours respectively, and the weekly leisure time is reduced by 10.5 hours, 7.5 hours and 4.1 hours respectively, as detailed in the following table:

Table 13: Reduced leisure time (hours) for fathers of one-child and two-child households

Source: Du Fenglian et al.'s paper "The Cost of Childcare Time in China's Urban Families"

According to the above data, the total number of leisure hours lost by fathers in one-child families due to child-rearing reached 5,827 hours, or an average decrease of 5.9 hours per week, and the total number of leisure hours lost by fathers in two-child families due to raising two children reached 8,069 hours, or an average decrease of 8.2 hours per week, when the father of two-child families lost 8,069 hours of leisure time due to raising two children at the age of 18.

根据Bruce Bradbury 在2004年11月发表在Labor & Demography的论文“Using Time-Use Data to Estimate the Full Costs of Children”，在一孩、二孩、三孩家庭中，澳大利亚母亲每周减少的闲暇时间如下表：

Table 14: Reduced leisure time (hours) per week for Australian mothers

数据来源：Bruce Bradbury “Using Time-Use Data to Estimate the Full Costs of Children”

As can be seen from the above table, mothers of one-child families have the most reduced leisure time at the age of 3-4 years, with a decrease of 10.5 hours per week, mothers of two-child families have the most reduction of leisure time at the age of 0-2 years of the second child, with a decrease of 16.1 hours per week, and mothers of three-child families have the most reduction of leisure time at the age of 0-2 years of age, with a decrease of 11.9 hours per week. Why is it that when the third child is 0-2 years old, the mother of a three-child family does not have less leisure time than when the second child is 0-2 years old? The reason is that the eldest child can help take care of the third child to a certain extent, thus reducing the burden of the mother to take care of the third child.

Although the data for China and Australia are not exactly the same by age, they can be roughly compared. According to the paper by Du Fenglian et al., mothers in one-child families reduce their leisure time by 12.6 hours per week when their children are 0-6 years old, and in two-child families, mothers reduce their leisure time by 14 hours per week when their children are 0-6 years old. It can be seen that compared with Australia, Chinese mothers of one-child families have more less leisure time, while mothers of two-child families have less leisure time.

In one-, two- and three-child households, the reduction in leisure time per week for Australian fathers is as follows:

Table 15: Reduced leisure time (hours) per week for Australian fathers

数据来源：Bruce Bradbury “Using Time-Use Data to Estimate the Full Costs of Children”

As can be seen from the table above, while in general, Australian mothers spend more less leisure time than their fathers, fathers in two-child families spend more less leisure time than mothers when their second child is 5-11 years old, probably because fathers spend more time tutoring and accompanying their 5-11-year-old children.

According to Du et al., in France and Italy, children reduce parents' leisure and self-care time by an average of 2 hours per day (Pailhé et al., 2019). The impact of child age on child care and housework time is equally important, and child care time decreases dramatically with increasing child age (Gustafsson & Kjulin, 1994; Craig & Bittman, 2008)。 When both parents are full-time workers, the cost of children's time is estimated based on the leisure time given up by the parents, and it is found that with the increase of children's age, raising children under 3 years old reduces the daily leisure time of each parent by 1.6 hours (within working days), the marginal leisure time cost of parents raising children aged 3~14 years is reduced to half, and children over 14 years old no longer affect their parents' leisure time (Ekert-Jaffé & Grossbard, 2015).

For more details on time costs and opportunity costs, see the Appendix.

9. International comparison of parenting costs

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country's per capita GDP in 2022 was 85,698 yuan. According to the estimates of this report, the average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in 2022 is 538312 yuan, which means that raising a child until he has just reached the age of 18 is equivalent to 6.3 times the GDP per capita. As defined in this report, "the cost of raising a child aged 0-17" is synonymous with "raising a child until he or she just turns 18".

Table 16 shows the multiples of GDP per capita in different countries on the cost of raising a child until the first 18 years of age. Since the data in Table 16 are not identical in years, they can only be used as a reference comparison. As can be seen from Table 16, the cost of raising children in Australia is only 2.08 times GDP per capita, in the United States it is 4.1 times GDP per capita, and in South Korea it is 7.79 times GDP per capita.

The cost of raising children in China is equivalent to 6.3 times GDP per capita, which is higher than that of all countries except South Korea among the countries listed in Table 16. South Korea now has the lowest fertility rate in the world, with only 0.78 in 2022.

Table 16: Multiples of GDP per capita in different countries on the cost of raising a child up to the age of 18

Note: Due to data sources, the specific data may not be the same in years

Source: Yuwa Population

In general, the higher the cost of raising children as a multiple of GDP per capita, the greater the pressure to raise children, and therefore the lower the fertility rate, but there are exceptions. As can be seen from Table 16, the cost of raising children in Singapore is only 2.1 times that of GDP per capita, so why is Singapore's fertility rate only about 1.1? China's fertility rate was 1.05 in 2022, but China still has vast rural areas, and the fertility rate in large cities is much lower than in rural areas, for example, the fertility rate of Shanghai's registered population in 2022 was only 0.7.

10. International comparison of the ideal number of children

Since China's parenting costs are almost the highest in the world relative to the multiple of GDP per capita, the average fertility intention (ideal number of children) of Chinese is also almost the lowest in the world.

Table 17: Ideal number of children for males and females aged 15-64 in selected countries and regions in 2011

In most of the countries listed in Table 17, the average ideal number of children for men and women is more than two, while the results of multiple fertility willingness surveys in the past decade show that the average ideal number of children for Chinese is less than two. Here are a few examples:

Example 1, according to the 2006 National Population and Family Planning Sample Survey Main Data Bulletin released by the former State Family Planning Commission, the average ideal number of children for women of childbearing age is 1.73, and the average ideal number of children for women with agricultural and non-agricultural household registration is 1.78 and 1.60 respectively.

Example 2: According to the National Fertility Intention Survey conducted by the former National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2013, the ideal number of children for urban and rural residents is 1.93, and the ideal number of children for single-person couples, single couples and ordinary families is 1.79, 1.83 and 1.95 respectively.

Example 3: According to the National Fertility Survey conducted by the former National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2017, from 2006 to 2016, the average ideal number of children for women of childbearing age in China was 1.96, while the average number of children planned for women of childbearing age was 1.75

Example 4, on January 20, 2022, at the regular press conference of the National Health Commission, Yang Jinrui, deputy director of the Department of Population and Family of the National Health Commission, introduced that the fertility willingness of young people continues to decline, and the average number of children planned to be born by women of childbearing age was 1.76 in the 2017 survey, 1.73 in the 2019 survey, and 1.64 in the 2021 survey.

The OECD's ideal number of children does not include data for Japan and South Korea. However, according to the KGSS (Korea Comprehensive Social Survey) and the World Bank, from 2006 to 2014, the average ideal number of children in South Korea was 2.45~2.55. According to the JGSS (Japan General Social Survey) and the World Bank, from 2000 to 2012, the average ideal number of children in Japan was 2.41~2.60. It can be seen that the average fertility intention of Chinese is not only significantly lower than that of Japan, but also significantly lower than that of South Korea.

Both the OECD and China data show that the actual fertility rate is lower than the ideal number of children, because some couples who want to have children suffer from infertility (according to the National Bureau of Statistics in 2021, the infertility rate of couples of childbearing age in mainland China has climbed to about 12%-18%), or miss the childbearing period. Moreover, for urban wage earners, many young couples are already stressed to raise a child, and even if they want to have a second child, they end up being discouraged from having a second child because of the high cost of having a child.

11. The number of marriages and the marriage rate in China have been declining for many years

In today's China, not only the cost of childbirth is too high, but also the cost of marriage is too high (the reason for the high cost of marriage in rural areas includes the sky-high bride price, and the reason for the high cost of marriage in urban areas includes high housing prices), which is one of the reasons why the number of marriages and the marriage rate in China have been declining in recent years.

According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriage registrations in China fell from 13.469 million in 2013 to 6.835 million in 2022, a drop of about half in nine years.

In Europe and the United States, births out of wedlock are common. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the average proportion of births born out of wedlock in EU countries in 2019 was 41.3%. Among them, the proportion of children born out of wedlock in France is as high as 60.4%. However, in China, marriage and childbearing are closely related, and the proportion of children born out of wedlock is very low, so the decline in the number of marriage registrations will inevitably have a negative impact on fertility.

It should be pointed out that in the marriage registration data, the number of first marriages is more closely related to the number of births, because the number of marriages also includes some elderly people who have remarried, and since the elderly have passed the childbearing period, there is no impact on the number of births. The number of first marriages in mainland China has continued to decline after reaching a peak of 23,859,600 in 2013, and will drop to 10,517,560 in 2022, declining for nine consecutive years.

Why has the number of registered marriages in mainland China been declining in recent years? There are several reasons for this:

The first is the decline in the number of young people. According to Qipu data, in 2020, there will be 215 million surviving people in the post-80s (born in 1980~1989, and so on), 178 million surviving people in the post-90s, and only 155 million surviving in the post-00s.

Secondly, due to the rising cost of marriage, high work pressure, and the substantial increase in women's education level and economic independence, the willingness of contemporary young people to marry has generally declined.

In addition, due to the high sex ratio at birth on the mainland since the 80s of the last century, the phenomenon of more men than women is relatively common, which is also an important reason for the decline in the number of marriage registrations in recent years. According to the 2020 census, there are 34.9 million more males than females in China's total population, and these more than 30 million people are distributed among different age groups. Among them, there are 17.52 million more men than women in marriageable age aged 20-40.

12. It is recommended to introduce policies to reduce the cost of childbirth

In 2023, China's total fertility rate will only be around 1.0, one of the lowest in the world. If the current ultra-low fertility rate cannot be improved, the Chinese population will rapidly decline and age, which will have a serious negative impact on innovation and comprehensive national strength.

According to the "Chinese Population Forecast Report 2023 Edition" released by Yuwa Population, if there is no substantial and effective policy to encourage births, the Chinese population will be reduced to 1.17 billion by 2050, and the Chinese population will drop to 479 million by 2100, accounting for 4.8% of the world's proportion from the current 17%, while the new birth population is only 0.9% of the world's new births. According to this trend, the demographic advantage accumulated by the Chinese nation over thousands of years will be completely lost within 100 years.

Since the implementation of the three-child policy at the end of May 2021, many regions across the country have introduced childcare subsidy policies. Here are a few examples:

For example, in July 2021, Panzhihua City, Sichuan Province, announced and interpreted in detail Panzhihua City's "Sixteen Policies and Measures on Promoting the Gathering of Human Resources", in which Panzhihua households with two or three children according to the policy will be given a childcare subsidy of 500 yuan per child per month until the child is 3 years old.

Example 2: In September 2022, the Yichun Municipal Health Commission and the Finance Bureau issued the "Yichun Childcare Subsidy Distribution System (Trial)", which proposes that the requirements for the issuance of childcare subsidies are that both husband and wife are urban and rural residents who are registered in Yichun City and work and live in Yichun City. Families with a second child will receive a childcare subsidy of 500 yuan per child per month, and families with a third child will receive a childcare subsidy of 1,000 yuan per child per month until the child reaches the age of three.

Example 3: In January 2023, the Jinan Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government issued the "Implementation Plan for Optimizing the Fertility Policy in Jinan City to Promote the Long-term Balanced Development of the Population", which proposes that two-child and three-child families born after January 1, 2023 in accordance with the city's household registration policy will receive a childcare subsidy of 600 yuan per child per month, and an additional childcare living allowance of 200 yuan per month will be paid to the minimum living security, those who are supported by the extremely poor and the women who give birth during the period of receiving unemployment insurance money, until the child is 3 years old.

Example 4: In August 2023, the Hangzhou Municipal Health Commission issued the "Implementation Measures for Childcare Subsidies in Hangzhou (Trial)", according to which the maternity subsidies in Hangzhou are divided into two categories: maternity subsidies and childcare subsidies, which are paid in cash at one time. In terms of maternity subsidies, a one-time subsidy of 2,000 yuan will be given to those who are pregnant (born) with two children, and a one-time subsidy of 5,000 yuan will be given to those who are pregnant (born) with three children. In terms of childcare subsidies, a one-time subsidy of 5,000 yuan will be given to those who give birth to two children, and a one-time subsidy of 20,000 yuan will be given to those who give birth to three children.

However, so far, these are local policies, and they are far from sufficient, and the cost of raising hundreds of thousands to millions can be said to be a drop in the bucket. Only the central government has the strength to reduce the burden of childcare in a substantial way. We recommend that policies to reduce the cost of childbirth for families of childbearing age be introduced at the national level as soon as possible.

13. Specific measures to reduce the cost of childbirth

Specifically, the main measures to reduce the cost of childbirth for families of childbearing age are as follows:

1) Cash and tax subsidies

Due to the large income disparities between different regions and groups, we recommend that both personal income tax deduction and cash subsidies be emphasized, and that high-income families should be exempted from personal income tax through the capitation tax deduction for their children. Since those with lower incomes are not subject to personal income tax, the tax relief does not apply to low-income households, for whom cash subsidies can be paid directly.

According to OECD data, in 2017, the proportion of cash subsidies to GDP in some developed countries is as follows: 2.12% in the United Kingdom, 1.42% in France, 1.24% in Sweden, 1.08% in Germany, 0.65% in Japan, and 0.15% in South Korea.

The experience of these countries can be used as a reference to formulate a subsidy policy: for each child of a two-child family, a cash subsidy of 1,000 yuan per month will be given. A monthly cash allowance of $2,000 is given to each child in a family with many children until the child reaches the age of 18 or 20. For two-child families, income tax and social security will be halved, and three-child families will be exempted from income tax and social security (for particularly wealthy families, a cap on the subsidy can be set).

Estimated effect: This part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 20%, and give birth to 2 million more children per year.

2) Housing purchase subsidy

One of the main reasons that restricts couples of childbearing age from having children is high housing prices, and China's big cities have the highest house-price-to-income ratio in the world. The high cost of living in big cities is mainly due to the high housing prices, other such as food, clothing, housing and transportation, large cities are not much more expensive than small cities, and the cost of education will not be much more expensive if it is public education. Therefore, in big cities, the high cost of parenting is mainly reflected in housing prices. This is one of the important reasons why the fertility rate in large cities is lower than in small cities. According to Qipu data, the total fertility rate in China in 2020 was 1.3, of which the total fertility rate in Shanghai and Beijing was only 0.74 and 0.87 respectively, while the total fertility rate in Shandong, Henan, Jiangxi and other provinces was around 1.4.

In order to reduce the burden on families with children, in addition to cash and tax subsidies, it is necessary to subsidize the purchase of houses for families with many children. This can be subsidized through mortgage interest rebates or discounted home prices. For example, 50% of the mortgage interest for two-child families will be refunded, and all mortgage interest for three-child families can be fully subsidized. Or in areas with high housing prices, the policy of 10% off the price of one child, 7% off the price of the second child, and 5% off the price of the third child (no more than the upper limit of a cap subsidy) can be implemented. The cost of this part of the subsidy can be covered by increasing the supply of housing land in the areas of population inflow and in large cities.

Estimated effect: This part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 20%, and give birth to 2 million more children per year.

3) Construct additional nurseries

According to the World Bank, the labor force participation rate of women aged 15-64 in China reached 68.6% in 2019, compared to the world average of 52.6%. Due to the high female labor force participation rate in China, many couples in China today are dual-income workers. One of the main reasons why a large number of young people are afraid to have two or three children is that the time and energy cost of caring for children is high, which is especially reflected in the difficulty of children entering nurseries, kindergartens and schools. In particular, there is a serious shortage of childcare services for children under the age of three. According to data released by the National Health Commission in 2021, only 5.5% of infants and toddlers under the age of 3 are enrolled in various childcare institutions in mainland China. We recommend increasing the enrollment rate of children under the age of 3 to about 50%. To achieve this goal, it is necessary for the government to build at least 100,000 childcare centres, either directly or under the leadership. According to the calculation of 40 million children under the age of 3, each child will be subsidized with 20,000 yuan of operating expenses, combined with the target of 50% enrollment rate, about 400 billion yuan of financial subsidies will be needed every year.

Estimated effect: This part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 10%, and give birth to 1 million more children per year.

The above three are the most important measures to encourage childbearing, and the total fiscal investment required is about 5% of GDP, which can greatly reduce the cost of childcare and effectively increase the fertility rate.

We did a correlation analysis of fertility encouragement and fertility rates in various countries, and the results showed that spending an average of 1% of GDP on fertility encouragement would increase fertility by 0.1, although this is only a correlation, and can only support rather than prove that fertility encouragement is effective. However, there are no data to support the ineffectiveness of encouraging childbearing. Some Nordic and Western European countries have introduced generous policies to encourage fertility and have achieved relatively high fertility rates. For example, France and Sweden both contribute 3%-4% of GDP to encourage childbearing, and their fertility rates are also close to replacement level of 1.8 to 1.9. In contrast, in southern European countries, fertility encouragement is generally only 1%-2% of GDP, and fertility rates are generally below 1.5. In recent years, Germany has stepped up its efforts to encourage childbearing, which was originally low, and the fertility rate has also increased.

Since the cost of childbearing in China is higher relative to income than in most developed countries, and similar to that of South Korea, which has the lowest fertility rate, China needs to raise the fertility rate of 1.05 to the level of developed countries, and 1.6 will need to encourage fertility more than they do. A GDP of 5% would almost raise the fertility rate to about 1.6. Although it is still far from replacement level, the problem of low fertility is at least not worse than that of developed countries.

In addition, we have also put forward the following suggestions to encourage childbearing, some projects only require less or no financial investment, but they need to be adjusted in terms of concepts and laws, the effect is not as big as the previous ones and not so fast, but because China's fertility problem is too serious, various measures to increase the fertility rate are very worthy of consideration.

4) Provide equal parental leave for men and women

The term "parental leave" in this article includes maternity leave for women, paternity leave for men, and parental leave. At present, the mainland's maternity leave regulations are as follows: Female employees are entitled to 98 days of maternity leave, of which 15 days can be taken before giving birth, 15 days of maternity leave should be added if they have a difficult birth, and 15 days of maternity leave can be added for each additional child born to multiple births. So far, the vast majority of provinces have passed newly revised population and family planning regulations, generally extending maternity leave and adding parental leave.

If only maternity leave is extended, it will inevitably lead to a reluctance of companies to hire women, thus exacerbating gender discrimination against women in the job market. In order to alleviate the worries of working mothers about giving birth to children, the government should bear the labor costs during maternity leave. In addition, we recommend the introduction of a policy of relative equality between men and women on maternity leave, which will help protect women's rights and interests in employment and career development, and correct gender discrimination in employment.

International experience shows that many high-welfare countries have relatively long maternity and parental leave. For example, Sweden's fertility policy encourages both couples to participate in childcare. Currently, Swedish parents together receive 480 days of paid parental leave, of which 90 days are not transferable to each other. This is mainly to ensure fairness and shared parenting responsibilities among parents. In recent years, Sweden's fertility rate has been around 1.8, second only to France among European countries.

The experience of countries such as Europe has shown that the integration of a gender perspective on family roles in parental leave systems, and the adoption of laws on fathers' family responsibilities, not only promotes equality of opportunity between men and women in the workplace and the sharing of responsibilities in domestic work, but also contributes to the elimination of gender discrimination in the job market.

Estimated effect: This part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 3%, and give birth to 300,000 more children per year.

5) Introduce foreign workers, including foreign nannies

Although there are maternity leave and nursery schools, it still takes a lot of time and energy for working women to take care of children, and in fact, they can also hire a nanny to help with household chores.

But in China's cities, hiring high-priced babysitters to take care of children around the clock is beyond the financial means of many urban white-collar workers. For example, the monthly salary of experienced nannies in Shanghai has reached tens of thousands. As the per capita income level of Chinese increases, the salary of hiring nannies from Southeast Asian countries will be much lower, which will save these families a lot of money.

In Hong Kong, for example, according to Hong Kong government statistics, in 2013, on average, one out of every three families with children hired a foreign nanny. In 2019, there were 399,000 foreign nannies in Hong Kong, including 219,000 from the Philippines and 170,000 from Indonesia. The minimum wage for foreign nannies is HK$4,630 per month, and the average salary is HK$4,765, which is equivalent to about 4,000 yuan. Based on the average salary of nannies in China's big cities of 10,000 yuan, each nanny can save 6,000 yuan per month for the Chinese families they serve, or 72,000 yuan per year. Hong Kong, China, has a population of only 7.5 million and employs nearly 400,000 foreign nannies. If Chinese mainland introduces 3 million foreign nannies, it is equivalent to saving these families a total of more than 200 billion yuan per year.

From the perspective of talent introduction, China should also make greater efforts to promote the introduction of all kinds of talents, especially to create convenient conditions for overseas Chinese to return to China for development. However, China is not a traditional country of immigrants and may not be as attractive to international talent as the United States. Migration is unlikely to be the primary means of addressing low fertility. Nevertheless, in order to promote exchanges and reduce labor costs, it is necessary to be more open to the reception of various human resources and foreign workers. The introduction of a large number of temporary foreign nannies can have a direct effect on reducing the cost of childbirth.

Estimated effect: This part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 2%, and give birth to 200,000 more children per year.

6) Promote flexible office models

With the maturity of remote meeting and collaborative work software in Internet technology, remote office has become more technically mature, and due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, enterprises have been forced to realize remote work, and a trend of remote work has been set off around the world. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Apple have all normalized remote work and introduced different hybrid work regimes. In February 2022, Trip.com China announced that nearly 30,000 employees across the company would implement a hybrid work system, allowing employees to work remotely from home every Wednesday and Friday. This is the first large company in China to launch a "3+2" hybrid work system. China's high-tech companies, represented by Ctrip, are actively experimenting with hybrid work models and have achieved good results. Not only did the work efficiency not decrease, but also greatly improved employee satisfaction. The social effects of hybrid work are also clear, not only reducing congestion for commuting, but also benefiting the environment, family harmony, alleviating high housing prices and increasing fertility rates.

The hybrid work model allows parents to spend more time with their children and reduce the pressure of parenting. Especially for female employees with young children, the hybrid work model can save a few hours of commuting time per week and work from home 2 days a week. Male employees can also spend more time with their children and share household chores. Of course, it is working women who benefit the most, as they can allocate their time more flexibly and spend more time with their children and family, so as to better balance family and work. Promoting a hybrid work model can alleviate the anxiety of working women, reduce the pressure and conflict of career development and parenting, and increase the fertility willingness of women of childbearing age.

Estimated effect: This part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by 4%-10%, and give birth to 400,000-1 million more children per year.

7) Guarantee the reproductive rights of single women

A child born out of wedlock is a child born to a man or a woman who is not legally married. According to OECD data, in 2018, the average proportion of children born out of wedlock in EU countries was 41.3%, and the average proportion of children born out of wedlock in OECD countries was 40.7%. The proportion of children born out of wedlock in France is 60.4%, much higher than the average for EU countries. The proportion of children born out of wedlock in the United States is 39.6%, slightly lower than the average for EU countries and OECD countries.

Many countries around the world have introduced measures to protect the rights and interests of unwed mothers and children born out of wedlock. For example, in order to encourage childbearing, the French government can receive the same family allowance for childbirth at the level of social welfare, regardless of whether it is born in or out of wedlock, and the more children born, the more subsidies will be given. With regard to the inheritance of property, the French Civil Code provides for the equal rights of legitimate and illegitimate children. The Nordic countries have a lower marriage rate than Japan, but maintain a high fertility rate. The main reason is that these countries are more tolerant of non-marital childbearing, and the government provides generous parenting benefits, so that many single women are willing and able to have and raise children independently.

In China, although the Civil Code stipulates that "children born out of wedlock enjoy the same rights as legitimate children, and no one shall harm or discriminate against them." "But in reality, since children born out of wedlock are not supported by law, if an unwed mother (or single mother) is employed, expenses such as examination fees, surgery fees, hospitalization fees, midwifery fees, and medicine expenses that should be paid by maternity insurance cannot be reimbursed. In many places, newborns need to provide birth certificates, marriage certificates and other relevant materials to the public security department. Unwed mothers or divorced women who give birth to children cannot register their children after they are born because they do not have a marriage certificate.

We recommend that any policies that discriminate against children born out of wedlock be abolished, and that the legitimate rights and interests of children born out of wedlock be fully protected, including legislation to protect children born out of wedlock, such as artificial insemination and IVF, and unconditional registration of children born out of wedlock. We do not encourage children out of wedlock, but believe that women who have the ability and willingness to raise children independently should enjoy the rights and benefits of childbearing fairly.

There are currently no statistics on children born out of wedlock in China. If the reproductive rights of single women are guaranteed, it is estimated that the proportion of children born out of wedlock will increase by at least 2%, which is equivalent to 200,000 children based on 10 million births per year.

Estimated effect: This part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 2%, and give birth to 200,000 more children per year.

8) Assisted reproductive technology is permitted

In today's society, many couples suffer from infertility although they want to have children. In 2021, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the infertility rate of couples of childbearing age in mainland China has climbed to about 12%-18%, and if they want to have children, they need the help of assisted reproductive technology. In addition, modern working women have to juggle their degrees, and career and family often conflict in terms of energy and time. Women with high educational qualifications tend to postpone marriage or choose to be single. For women in their 30s who are not yet married, they also need the help of fertility techniques, such as egg freezing and artificial insemination, to fulfill their desire to have children.

However, at present, the development of assisted reproductive technology in China is subject to some limitations. For example, the "Norms for Human Assisted Reproduction" (Wei Ke Jiao Fa [2003] No. 176) issued by the former Ministry of Health stipulates that "it is forbidden to implement human assisted reproductive technology on couples and single women who do not meet the provisions of the national population and family planning laws and regulations." In practice, this provision has made it impossible for single women to use sperm banks, egg freezing and other artificial assisted reproduction-related technologies to exercise their reproductive rights.

In fact, many countries in the West allow single women to adopt assisted reproductive techniques (including egg freezing). In 2012, the United States was the first to open egg freezing services to women. In October 2014, two major U.S. tech giants, Apple Inc. and Facebook, announced that they would offer egg freezing as a benefit for female employees. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2.1% of births in the United States in recent years have been born using assisted reproductive technology. Israel has the highest fertility rate among the developed countries today. As early as the 80s of the last century, IVF technology has been promoted and applied in Israel. By the 90s of the last century, Israel had the highest density of fertility clinics in the world. Israel is the only country in the world that provides almost full assisted reproductive technology subsidies for women under the age of 45, and women of working age can enjoy this subsidy regardless of whether they are married or not, until she has two children.

In fact, many single women in China have egg freezing needs, and there are many professional medical institutions in China that have the technology to implement egg freezing. However, due to the relevant domestic regulations prohibiting single women from implementing human assisted reproductive technology, some single women have no choice but to freeze their eggs overseas, which is much more expensive than freezing eggs in China. In 2018, Trip.com Group launched an internal maternity welfare program, which includes providing 100,000 yuan to 2 million yuan and 7 days of annual leave for female middle and senior managers of the company, so that they can enjoy high-tech assisted reproductive benefits such as egg freezing. Ctrip also became the first major technology company in China to offer this maternity benefit program.

We suggest that the cost of infertility treatment should be covered by Chinese health insurance. In addition, the law should allow single women (or unmarried women) equal rights to use assisted reproductive technology. According to the 2.1% use of assisted reproduction in the United States, the proportion of assisted reproduction in China is still very small. It is possible to achieve the same level of proportion if assisted reproductive technology is fully opened.

Estimated effect: This part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 2%, and give birth to 200,000 more children per year.

9) Education reform (reduce the internal volume of the college entrance examination and shorten the school system)

In addition to the direct financial costs, Chinese parents spend almost the most money and energy invested in their children's education. This is partly one of the most important reasons for inhibiting the desire to have children. According to the data, the fertility rate of developed Asian countries such as South Korea, Singapore, and Japan is generally 0.5 children lower than that of European and American countries on average, which is very related to the huge pressure on these countries in exams, further education, school selection and make-up classes. China's unique college entrance examination system makes the educational pressure of Chinese parents no lower than that of these countries, and there are statistics that Chinese students have the highest make-up class and study time in the world. Therefore, reducing the pressure of going on to higher education and choosing a school will have a significant effect on China's fertility rate. It may have a greater impact than any of the previous cost-reduction measures alone, but the reason why we put education reform last is that education reform is not just a matter of money, but an extremely complex system design that involves the interests of all parties. There is little chance of substantial progress in the short term.

Although the difficulties are great, we still need to put forward some idealistic proposals as the goal of long-term reform. The fundamental change is to reduce the various tiered exams, and ideally put the tiered exams on university graduation (equivalent to graduate school). Then save almost two years of exam preparation in secondary school. Specifically, it is necessary to popularize university education, postpone the diversion of general jobs to universities and even graduate students, abolish the high school entrance examination, dilute the college entrance examination into a kind of qualification examination for entering universities, and dilute the undergraduate education of famous universities. Graduate schools and employers of prestigious universities screen students through the graduation examination (i.e., graduate school entrance examination). In this way, middle school students do not need to waste two years of time brushing questions for the high school entrance examination and college entrance examination, so that the study at the middle school level can be shortened by two years, so that most students can graduate from college at the age of 20 or two years ahead of schedule, and enter the society or graduate school two years early.

Of course, we know that these reforms are very bold and avant-garde, very controversial and difficult, and involve many vested interests. However, without a deep reform of the examination and school system, any partial reform will be ineffective and will even cause greater waste and distortion. Moreover, the current education system has not only led to a low fertility rate, but also caused huge social waste and brain drain. So the benefits of the potential reforms are enormous, and it is worth making the reform of the education system the goal of long-term reform. For example, if most people can graduate from college two years early, the extra two years will be an additional 5% of the contribution and income for everyone's 40-year career, and it will increase the efficiency of the overall society by at least 5%. Especially for highly educated women, with two more years, there is more time to fall in love, organize a family and develop a career.

Estimating the effect: The education reform is too complex, the future policies are difficult to predict, and the effect of increasing the fertility rate is very difficult to estimate, but the ceiling is very high, which can increase the fertility rate by up to 30%, which is more effective than any previous single measure.

Table 18: Suggested and estimated effects of measures to reduce the cost of childbearing

Note: The above estimates are based on the extent of the reduction in parenting costs in this report, and the actual effect depends on the strength and breadth of policy implementation.

Source: Yuwa Population

14. Conclusion

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of births in China in 2023 will be only 9.02 million, and the total fertility rate will only be about 1.0, which is not only lower than almost all countries in the world, but also much lower than Japan, which has a serious low birthrate and aging population. The declining birthrate will have a profound impact on China's economic growth potential, innovation vitality, people's happiness index and even national rejuvenation. The rapid shrinkage of the population also means that the scale effect continues to weaken and the comprehensive national strength declines. The fundamental reason for China's almost the lowest fertility rate in the world is the highest cost of childbirth in the world, and the reasons for this are many, including education, housing and other factors. It is very necessary to greatly reduce the cost of raising children through a number of subsidized birth policies. In the face of the dual downward pressure on China's economy and population, we propose to effectively alleviate the economic downturn and boost social confidence by subsidizing births and increasing the number of births. In the short term, subsidized childbirth will help expand domestic demand, stabilize growth and stabilize employment, and in the long run, subsidized childbirth will help improve human resources, human capital, economic and social vitality, enhance China's confidence in economic development, and enhance China's innovation and competitiveness.

Appendix: More details on the time and opportunity costs of raising a child

How to estimate the time cost and opportunity cost of raising a child is a very complex problem. We looked at a number of papers on this and found that the exact data was not exactly the same. For example, according to a paper published in the 5th issue of Population and Economy magazine in 2020, Zhang Qi and Chu Liming, professors at the School of Labor Economics of Capital University of Economics and Business, "How much does raising children increase women's housework time?" The study found that compared with childlessness, having one child would increase women's daily housework time by 2.08 hours, and having two children would increase women's daily housework time by 0.76 hours, or 2.84 hours.

According to Xu Qi, an associate professor at the School of Sociology at Nanjing University, published a paper in the July 2018 issue of Women's Studies Review, "Where Has Time Gone? After giving birth to children, women will work an average of 2.811 hours less per day and 2.106 hours less leisure time than when they were unmarried, and almost all of these reduced hours will be added to housework.

Xu's study divided the daily time into four categories: physiological time, working time, housework time, and leisure time. Among them, physiological time includes sleep and rest time, meal time and personal hygiene activity time, working time includes main working time, part-time working time and commuting time, housework time includes housework time and family care time, and leisure time includes the time spent by individuals watching television, reading traditional media, using Internet entertainment, physical exercise, etc., which are not included in the first three types of time. In addition, to balance both weekdays and rest days, we multiply respondents' time on weekdays by 5/7 and rest days by 2/7, and add up the two to obtain a comprehensive time measurement.

According to the three variables of marital status, reproductive status and age of the youngest child, the life course of the respondents was divided into six stages: unmarried, married without children, children aged 0-2, children aged 3-5, children aged 6-14, and children aged 15 and above.

Figure 3: Differences in the way men and women use their time

Source: Xu Qi's paper "Where has the time gone? Differences in the use of time between men and women in China from the perspective of life course》

As can be seen from Figure 3 above, there are very significant differences in the amount of time men and women spend on average each day in terms of physiology, work, housework and leisure. Specifically, men spend an average more time working and leisure per day than women, while men's menstrual time and housework are shorter than women's.

Figure 4: Differences in time between men and women over the course of life

Source: Xu Qi's paper "Where has the time gone? Differences in the use of time between men and women in China from the perspective of life course》

As shown in Figure 4, when an individual is unmarried, there are small differences in the way men and women use their time. However, with the occurrence of marriage and childbearing, there are increasingly differences between men and women in the way they use their time.

Du Fenglian, Zhao Yunxia and Zhong Senli from the School of Economics and Management of Inner Mongolia University co-authored and published in the third issue of Labor Economics Research in 2023, using the data of the 2017 China Time Use Survey (CTUS) to study the impact of parenting on parents' time allocation, found that in one-child families, when children were 0-6 years old, 7-12 years old and 13-18 years old, the mother's unpaid labor time (housework time) increased by 2.033 hours/day, respectively. 0.930 hours/day and 0.633 hours/day, and leisure time decreased by 1.797 hours/day, 1.095 hours/day and 0.719 hours/day, respectively. Only children aged 0-6 years significantly reduced their mother's paid working hours (working hours) by 1.554 hours/day, while other age groups had no significant effect on their mothers' paid work. For two-child families of the corresponding age group, the mother's unpaid working time increased by 2.142 hours/day, 2.296 hours/day and 1.611 hours/day, respectively, the leisure time decreased by 1.996 hours/day, 1.303 hours/day and 1.232 hours/day, and the paid working time decreased by 2.478 hours/day and 1.576 hours/day, respectively, which had no significant effect on the paid working time of mothers aged 13-18.

Furthermore, considering the different influences of children of different ages on parents' time allocation, the cost of parenting time was calculated by children's age segments, and the specific results are shown in the following table.

Table 19: Du Fenglian et al.: Calculation of the cost of childcare time for children of different ages

According to Xu Qi, an associate professor at the School of Sociology of Nanjing University, published a paper in the 5th issue of Sociological Research in 2021, "From Fatherhood Salary Premium to Motherhood Wage Punishment: A Study on the Impact of Childbirth on the Wage Income of Men and Women in Mainland China and Its Change Trend (1989-2015)", after giving birth to children, the traditional concept of gender roles requires women to devote more time and energy to child care, which will affect their performance in the labor market, leading to "motherhood wage punishment" (motherhood wage). Rather than being negatively affected by childbearing, men's earnings will be driven to work harder due to the breadwinner of their traditional family roles, resulting in a "fatherhood wage premium".

Yang Fan, associate professor of the Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of Chinese, and He Yuchen, a doctoral student at the Center for Social Studies of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, published a paper in the 5th issue of Population Research in 2022, "Motherhood Punishment in China's Women's Labor Supply", using the data of the China Family Panel Survey (CFPS) from 2010 to 2018, found that women's "motherhood punishment" has phased differences: within 0~3 years after giving birth to a child, the female labor force participation rate will decline by about 17% The number of working hours per month will be reduced by about 22 hours, and the level of women's labor supply will return to the pre-childbearing level after four years of childbearing. The degree of "maternal punishment" for women having two children is less than that for giving birth to one child, which indicates that the impact of childbirth on women's labor supply is marginally decreasing to a certain extent.

In their March 2022 article "Suggestions on Fertility Policy from the Perspective of Gender Economics", Liu Qian, President of The Economist Group Greater China, Zhao Yaohui, and Zhang Xiaobo, professors of economics at Peking University Development Institute, used research by Danish scholars to extrapolate China's figures, and concluded that the "birth penalty" (time cost and opportunity cost) for women giving birth to one child on average in China reached 570,000 yuan, of which the average birth penalty for urban residents was 770,000 and that for rural residents was 310,000. Although Liu et al.'s estimates may not be accurate, and we do not use this data in the text of this report, Liu et al.'s policy recommendations can help draw attention to the time and opportunity costs that women have to have children.

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[50]    Ministry of Health & Welfare：The high price of raising a well-educated child.

[51]    https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2013/04/10/socialAffairs/The-high-price-of-raising-a-welleducated-child/2969998.html

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