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With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

In September 1988, at the Seoul Olympics, the much-anticipated Li Ning appeared, and the Chinese in front of the TV held their breath.

Soon people found that Li Ning's hands were trembling slightly on the ring, and in an instant, he seemed to have lost the strength of his whole body, and Li Ning fell down.

In the next pommel horse project, when completing the special trick "Thomas Full Spin", Li Ning once again appeared deformed and fell directly off the pommel horse.

But Li Ning didn't show too much frustration on the field, but maintained a bright smile, and for a while disappointment and anger surrounded him from all sides.

People can't understand: Li Ning, who won three gold medals in the World Cup gymnastics two years ago, why did his performance in the Olympics be so substandard?

After a lapse of 35 years, Li Ning Company, which had relied on the national tide to reach the top, faced the same failure.

As of the close of trading on January 31, 2024, Li Ning's market value is HK $42.9 billion, compared with the peak market value of 280 billion in 2021, it has fallen by more than 230 billion in more than two years, and is 30 billion more than the combined market value of Anta, Xtep, and 316 degrees.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

The collapse of market value is accompanied by performance that continues to fall behind.

As of 2022, Li Ning's market share is still only 10.4%, which is almost the same as ten years ago, and less than Nike's 22.6%, Anta's 20.4%, and Adidas' 11.2%.

As of the first half of 2023, Li Ning's revenue was 14.019 billion yuan, less than 50% of Anta's, and its net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.121 billion yuan, down 3.11% year-on-year, making it one of the four major sports brands (Anta, Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 degrees).

The only brand with negative net profit growth.

In addition to the capital market, Li Ning is also facing many crises such as high-end failures, channel chaos, and public opinion backlash, and a scene with a similar fate has reappeared.

That distant defeat in the Olympic arena has been smoothed out by the years, and Li Ning's smile and mood at that time have become a fog of history.

And this time the rout in the business world is still fermenting, and Li Ning, who has entered the age of ear shun, still needs to face the seemingly simple but fatal problem:

What brand is Li Ning?

The price increase cannot rise to the high-end

When it comes to today's Li Ning, what is people's most intuitive impression can be from the recent "China Li Ning 1500 down jacket" incident.

When a tourist took a photo with a white fox in Harbin, he was pooped on his body, and the big brother in the Northeast who set up the stall was embarrassed and compensated the tourist.

It's normal for the story to go on here, but the big brother in the Northeast then said "lost 1500", which instantly caused heated discussions.

Someone at the scene couldn't help but ask: "What kind of clothes, inlaid with gold edges?"

Not because of the gold edge, but because Li Ning added the word "China" in front of it.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

Only those who know Li Ning know that "China Li Ning" is a trendy brand, and the price is far from being comparable to the general "Li Ning".

In fact, the big brother in the Northeast should be happy,

Fortunately, I met "China Li Ning", not "Li Ning 1990", because the price of the latter will be more expensive, and the price of a down jacket is more than 8,000.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

How did the light of domestic products, which used to be close to the people, suddenly make the Chinese people unaffordable? This matter has to go back to 2018.

At the New York Fashion Week that year, Li Ning, who was required to prepare 56 sets of clothes, took stock of all the new designs and found that only half of them were enough.

Time is tight and the task is heavy, so I can only simply modify the tops and bottoms of different sets and match them together to make up the number.

After the clothing design was completed, the team found that the style was too different from the original style of Li Ning, so in order not to affect the brand image, they temporarily thought of a new sub-brand - "China Li Ning".

The bold color scheme of "tomato scrambled eggs" and the four big characters "China Li Ning" on the chest, no one expected that such a temporary patchwork design would make Li Ning stand on the cusp of the national tide.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

After New York Fashion Week, the average price of Li Ning Wudao 2-ACE-Wade's way ordinary models rose from 899 yuan to 1,700 yuan, and the Lego model once reached 5,000 yuan.

Since then, Li Ning has tasted the sweetness brought by the national tide, and it has also given Li Ning the courage to do what he has been wanting to do but has not done in the past decades:

Raise prices and take the high-end route.

The outbreak of the "Xinjiang cotton" incident in 2011 strengthened Li Ning's determination to compete for the high-end market.

There is nothing wrong with going to the high-end itself, the problem is that Li Ning seems to equate the high-end with the price increase.

According to data from SPDB International, the average tag price of "China Li Ning" is 700-800 yuan. The "LI-NING1990" launched in 2021 focuses on light luxury style, with an average price of more than 1.3 times that of Li Ningyuan's original series products, and a pair of socks will be sold for nearly 200 yuan.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

Li Ning's price increase is not only for trendy brands, but also for the running shoes series under the main brand, and the price of Liejun series running shoes has increased by as much as 400 yuan in 3 years.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

Someone compared the price of Li Ning and Adi, the price of Li Ning Wade Road on Tmall has reached 1399 yuan, and the most expensive price of Adidas basketball shoes on Tmall is only 1299 yuan.

But the wind of the times has changed again,

The wind of the national tide will come to an abrupt end in 2022, and the cold wind of consumption downgrade will blow across the market. The tide has receded, and consumers are no longer buying the high-end of Li Ning.

According to the 2022 annual report, the number of stores of "Li Ning 1990" is only 16. Even if the traffic star Xiao Zhan is invited to endorse, the sales of "Li Ning 1990" are low overall, and the sales of many Xiao Zhan's products of the same model have only reached 100+.

"I treat Li Ning as a domestic product, and Li Ning takes me as the wronged leader" began to be common on social platforms, and to add insult to injury, Li Ning also turned over twice during this period.

In September 2022, Li Ning held the "Dream Chase Airport Show", in which several sets of costumes made it difficult not to make people think that it was a "Japanese military uniform".

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

After that, the general manager of Li Ning e-commerce also added fuel to the fire, accusing "consumers of the precipitation of Chinese culture and the inheritance of educational knowledge are still less", which caused a thousand waves with one stone.

"I regard Li Ning as a domestic product, and Li Ning regards me as a big Zuo", until now it still frequently appears in various comments,

Li Ning, who has eaten the national tide dividend for 3 years, would never have thought that he would choke on himself.

Another rollover incident occurred on the professional sneakers that Li Ning relied on to become famous. At the 2021 National Games, Chen Yufei, who had just won the Tokyo Olympic championship, was cut by a broken wire in Li Ning's badminton shoes during the competition.

This turmoil once again aroused public opinion to question the quality of Li Ning's badminton shoes, and even fierce rhetoric appeared on social platforms about "how many athletes will Li Ning harm".

In the same year, Li Ning, who had cooperated with the Chinese badminton team for 12 years, lost its sponsorship qualification, and the Japanese brand Yonex became the clothing and equipment sponsor of the Chinese badminton team for the next 8 years.

Compared with the "Dazuo" incident, the "]" incident is more reflective

The fact that the high-end of Li Ning's continuous price increase does not match the product strength is the more core reason for the reversal of market reputation.

A more direct proof is that Li Ning's price increase did not bring sales, but instead brought about a surge in inventory, which almost doubled in two years.

In order to destock, Li Ning had to launch new products to increase prices, and at the same time to clear the price of old products.

In particular, the dealers who contribute nearly half of the revenue, the price reduction is so wide that it has caused obvious problems of goods channeling, resulting in confusion in the price system.

This also more directly exposes the cruel fact that Li Ning's real brand power cannot support its own high pricing.

Huang Liang has been dreaming for three years, and Li Ning's high-end dream should also wake up.

Repeatedly wavering brand positioning

"We are committed to becoming a world-class professional sports brand enterprise with fashion originating from China and being recognized by the world. ”

Since 2019, the above paragraph has been added to the introduction of the group on the homepage of Li Ning's financial report.

The combination of "fashion" and "professional" may have been inspired by the previous year's national tide dividend, but in the real business world, such a combination can be disastrous.

Qian Wei, who became the co-CEO of Li Ning in 2019, used "fear" to describe his feelings when he heard that Li Ning was a trendy brand.

"If the Li Ning brand is compared to this big tree, the trunk is a professional sport, and the 'tide' is just one of the leaves, which will make the tree look better, but the trunk can grow leaves no matter how healthy it is, and if the trunk is wrong, the tree will fall. ”

But what is confusing is that the above-mentioned high-end fashion brand "Li Ning 1990" was also launched during Qian Wei's reign. From the outside world's point of view, whether it is the design or the style, it is difficult for people to feel the relationship between the leaves of "Li Ning 1990" and the trunk of Li Ning's professional sports.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

As a matter of fact

The contradiction and vacillation in brand positioning has always been Li Ning's biggest heart disease.

From its establishment in 1990 to the first decade of 2000, Li Ning has been a professional sports brand, and the public attention outside the arena is not high.

In 2001, China's successful bid for the Olympic Games allowed Li Ning to see the opportunity for professional sportswear to enter the mass consumer market. In 2002, Li Ning Company launched "Anything is Possible" as its brand slogan, not only sending the brand to second- and third-tier cities through large-scale channel expansion, but also increasing investment in sports event sponsorship, in exchange for 8 years of rapid development.

By 2010, Li Ning's revenue was only one step away from the 10 billion mark, and it became a veritable domestic sports brand. Maybe it's because it's too smooth, so that Li Ning has the conceit of being invincible. This year, Li Ning changed the slogan to "let change happen" and positioned the "post-90s" as the target customer.

This is also the first time that Li Ning has transformed into a high-end company

, the main price band from 250-300 yuan to around 400 yuan, shoes and clothing prices increased by 8%-18%.

But the end was very tragic, and in the following three years, Li Ning's revenue declined year after year, and the abandoned third- and fourth-tier markets gave Anta an opportunity, and since 2012, Li Ning's revenue has never surpassed Anta. Coupled with the turbulent changes in management during this period, Li Ning lost money for three consecutive years since 2012, and it was not until 2015 that the net profit returned to positive.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

It was also in this year that Li Ning re-emerged from the mountain palm print, using the slogan of "everything is possible".

Refocus on the direction of professional sports

, established five core categories of basketball, running, training, badminton and sports fashion.

In the following years, the running and basketball series became the main force to save Li Ning. From 2015 to 2017, the running series grew rapidly, and since 2018, the basketball series has developed rapidly, becoming the largest category of professional sports.

If this development continues, Li Ning may be able to go further and further in the direction of focusing on professional sports. But as if fate likes to joke, the accidental popularity at New York Fashion Week in 2018 has stirred the heartstrings of Li Ning's turn to high-end.

For the next three years, yes

Li Ning took advantage of the national tide dividend to raise prices and take the sweet time of high-end

。 In 2018, Li Ning's revenue finally exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the revenue scale will double by 2021.

In particular, the most priced sports fashion category has skyrocketed, accounting for 39% from 25% to 2020, of which the retail turnover of sports fashion series increased by about 50%+ in 2019.

It seems that Li Ning's high-end brand positioning has been won.

Looking back now, this gift of fate has indeed been secretly marked with a price.

In 2021, when Li Ning was infinitely beautiful, the Chinese edition of Barron's analyzed that Li Ning's single-brand strategy was based on its launch of the national fashion brand "China Li Ning", which dragged Li Ning into a cruel environment of competition with fast fashion brands, designer brands and fashion brands.

If the logic of buying Li Ning is to join the national tide track, then the breakthrough of Li Ning's valuation depends on how long the national tide can be in the tuyere period and to what extent the capital can support it.

Obviously, the tuyere of the national tide has only been blowing for three years.

Li Ning, who has eaten the most dividends, is now time to repay his debts.

In the first half of 2023, Li Ning said that the strategic focus will return to professional sportswear such as basketball and running, and build a new product matrix.

Everything is back to the question at the beginning: what kind of brand is Li Ning, and how to choose between professional sports and high-end fashion?

When is it also fate?

In the 30 years of ups and downs of Li Ning, Anta has achieved a counterattack all the way.

Nowadays, the gap between Li Ning and Anta is getting wider and wider.

In terms of market capitalization, Anta is already equivalent to 4 Li Ning.

In terms of earning power, as of the first half of 2023, Li Ning's net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 3.11% year-on-year, which was the first negative net profit growth since the interim report in 2020, while Anta's net profit growth in the same period reached an exaggerated level of 32%.

In terms of revenue, in the Chinese market, Anta is already the undisputed big brother, realizing the dream that Li Ning once wanted to surpass Nike.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

The core reason for this result is that the two companies choose different brand routes.

Compared with Li Ning's "single brand, multi-category" approach, Anta follows the path of "single focus and multiple brands".

To put it simply, Li Ning only has one brand, "Li Ning", whether it is "China Li Ning" or "LI-NING1990", which is essentially an extension of the Li Ning brand.

Anta's rule of play is "buy, buy, buy": in 2009, it acquired the fashion sports brand FILA, in 2015 it acquired the British sports fashion shoe brand Sprandi, in 2016 it began to act as an agent for Descente's product design, marketing and sales in Chinese mainland, in 2017 it acquired the Korean high-end outdoor brand KOLON, and in 2019 it acquired Amer (Amalfen), which includes Salomon, Archaeopteryx, Mavic (bicycle parts) and other brands.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

Anta's main brand has developed in parallel with the acquired brand, which means that the brand worn on the body is not Anta, but in fact it may be Anta Group.

So it's easy to guess: if Li Ning follows Anta's path, will it develop better?

In fact, Li Ning played the multi-brand style earlier than Anta.

As early as 2002, Li Ning obtained Kappa's agency rights in Chinese mainland for 5 years, but after 3 years, he transferred the entire equity of Kappa agent Beijing Movement to Chen Yihong, Li Ning's old comrade-in-arms and who had faded out of management.

As for the reason for the divestment, it is said that Li Ning listened to the advice of the consulting firm Roland Berger, which believed that Li Ning only bought the agency for five years, not ownership, and that it would not benefit the company if it did not operate well, and that if it did well, it would support its competitors.

In 2008, Li Ning spent nearly 1 billion yuan to buy Lotto's 20-year franchise in China, and was pinned on the high hope of supporting a sports fashion brand, but it was stuck in the sports fashion track at that time by Kappa, which had been abandoned, and Lotto, which had lost money for 3 years, became a financial black hole.

By 2016, the total revenue of Li Ning's major brands, including Leto, Kason and Aigle, totaled 89.854 million yuan, accounting for only 1.1% of Li Ning's annual revenue.

To be fair, the multi-brand strategy looks beautiful, but in reality the success rate is low, and similar failures have happened to Adidas and Nike.

In 2006, Adidas paid $3.8 billion to buy the century-old Reebok, at that time Reebok's sneaker market share was second only to Nike, and Adidas's move was undoubtedly aimed at Nike's home base in the United States.

But the largest acquisition in the sports brand sector ended miserably. In early 2021, Adidas sold Reebok at a low price, calling the acquisition "an expensive mistake."

As early as 1994, Nike tried to build a multi-brand matrix, and successively included the ice hockey brand Bauer, the extreme sports equipment brand Hurley, the professional football brand Umbro, the trendy men's shoe brand Cole Haan, and the casual shoe brand Converse.

However, these sub-brands have not made much of a splash. Since 2008, it has sold brands such as Bauer, Umbro and Cole Haan, and has returned to the old path of focusing on core brands after slimming down.

The difficulty of multi-brand strategy is to form a clear differentiation from the main brand, and to give multi-brand full freedom and marketing support.

Failing to do the former means that multi-brand is actually repeating the main brand, and Adidas' failure in Reebok is due to the fact that the two are too similar;

Failing to do the latter means that it is impossible to form a multi-brand advantage in the subdivided field, and it will become a chicken rib.

Taking Anta as an example, the main brands of FILA and ANTA never learn from each other, especially the designers, and never share them. In order to maintain the brand's high-end image, ANTA has even set up its "brand headquarters" overseas to coordinate global products, R&D and design.

Therefore, Li Ning's failure is not surprising, and Anta's success is the outlier.

Even Anta, which is now shining, was not favored when it acquired FILA in 2009, and its positioning in fashion and sports has caused it to slow down.

In the end, it relied on the "higher-end" positioning, shifting the brand's focus from the popular trend to the subdivided professional sports, avoiding the basketball and football tracks that have attracted much attention but the brands are clustered, and going to more niche and more expensive sports such as golf and tennis.

After that, Anta continued to try to create more FILA, and after acquiring Amalfen, it turned Arc'teryx from a niche brand in the professional outdoor circle into a "sports luxury" brand, but it triggered a panic buying frenzy.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

The latest "Year of the Dragon Limited" jacket, even if it was ridiculed as the same style as Meituan's brother, still couldn't stop someone from being willing to go to the store to queue for more than 3 hours, and even tearfully auctioned it at a high price of 16,000 yuan on the second-hand platform.

Why has Anta, which is more expensive, able to succeed? One reason that cannot be ignored is the arrival of the subdivision of vertical sports brands.

From the perspective of global trends, the sports brand market is also moving towards a situation of stock competition, and the competition is more and more inclined to the stock market. As the national tide gradually recedes, the domestic sports brand market is undergoing a major reshuffle, and Anta's successful counterattack highlights the importance of seizing the opportunity and formulating the right strategy.

The new wave of consumption is more emphasizing the unique connection between brands and sports, just as lululemon is to yoga, Helly Hansen is to skiing, and now Archaeopteryx is to middle-class outdoors.

Anta's efforts in channel reform and brand marketing are certainly worth learning from domestic sports brands such as Li Ning, but it is also an unavoidable luck to hit the trend of subdividing sports brands and helping Anta bet on the right side again and again.

In contrast, Li Ning's luck was much worse.

In 2010, when we tried to go premium, we faced the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the retreat of the sports boom after the Olympics, and the post-90s generation, who had just turned 20, had not yet become the main force in the consumer market, which led to a further outbreak of the inventory crisis.

Even as early as 1999, Li Ning tried to internationalize, hired first-class designers and printmakers from Italy, France and South Korea, and hired professional management talents, and even set a sales target of more than 1 billion yuan in three years.

However, in the end, because it did not fit with the market environment at that time, consumers could not accept Li Ning's transformation, which led to the collapse of internationalization, so that Li Ning felt that internationalization was too early.

The weather is not good, and neither can people.

Li Ning has stepped on many pitfalls in personnel changes, and its experience has been summarized as "the first batch of professional manager system exploration records of private enterprises in China's market economy".

The most typical is that after the failure of high-end transformation in 2010, the then CEO Wang Zhiyong resigned dimly, and then Jin Yizhen launched radical reforms, which led to Li Ning's financial loss, and had to shrink the front and stick to the main brand front.

With a market value of more than 200 billion yuan evaporated in two years, Li Ning's defeat has just begun

And after every crisis, only the return of Li Ning himself can really stabilize his position.

Li Ning himself has also reflected on the chaos of organization and management: "In the eyes of everyone, Li Ning Company is a master who goes to the doctor when he is sick, and as a result, all kinds of gods and goddesses appear on the stage, and they regard this place as a test field for various projects and ideas."

Up to now, Li Ning Company has two CEOs, and Li Ning, who once hoped that the company's fate would not be tied to one person, still has not escaped and has to continue to charge forward on the front line.

From the sports arena to the business world, the story of what happened to Li Ning is always full of drama and a sense of fate.

Li Ning, who has entered the year of ear shun, may also sigh with the emotion of "time is also fate" today, and may also remember how he got back on his feet and came back with a different look after the fiasco 35 years ago.

When the era of great differentiation comes, public opinion is torn apart and information is overflowing. What you lack is not information, but professional judgment and analytical skills.

It's easy to get an idea, but it's not easy to master a methodology on your own.

Our research team painstakingly put together two reports summarizing how to track the key meetings and what to focus on.

Resources:

Yuanchuan Research Institute: How did Li Ning lose to Anta?

DataVision: How did Archaeopteryx change its life?

Inside and outside: Li Ning finally has to repay the debt of Guochao's "price increase".

China Entrepreneur Magazine: Li Ning "Doubles"

China Securities Securities: Li Ning Special Research Report: The rise of the national tide and the renewal of the brand

DataVision: What happened to Li Ning?

Barron's: Anta VS Li Ning, where does the quadruple market value gap come from?

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