Overnight, spot gold fell sharply in the pre-U.S. session, briefly falling to an intraday low of $2,011.94, and then rebounded to near the $2,020 mark, and finally closed down 0.22% at $2,020.12. In today's U.S. session, gold rose slightly and is currently hovering around $2,027.
Breakthrough 38,000 points!
Overnight, the three major U.S. indexes opened mixed, with overall gains during the session and finally closed mixed. At the close, the Dow rose 0.33% to 38,797.38, the S&P 500 fell 0.09% to 5,021.84 and the Nasdaq fell 0.3% to 15,942.55.
For now, investors will focus on the US CPI data for January 2024, which will greatly affect the market's expectations for whether the Fed will start cutting interest rates in the future.
Economists expect CPI to rise 2.9% year-on-year in January, down from 3.4% in December, which would be the first time since the current rate hike cycle fell below 3%. Psychologically speaking, the reduction from "3" to "2" is more symbolic, which will play a good role in boosting market sentiment. In addition, core CPI growth is expected to slow to 3.7% y/y in January from 3.9% in December.
It is important to know that before the release of the inflation data, a number of Fed officials spoke out on the topic of inflation, affirming the positive results while continuing to emphasize the current inflationary pressures.
Richmond Fed President Barkin said that the Fed is close to the inflation target (i.e., 2%) but has not yet reached it, and it is too early to think that inflationary pressures are over, and the risk of persistent inflationary pressures is real.
Fed Governor Bowman said that the Fed still faces many risks in the fight against inflation, and it is too early to predict when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates.
Currently, CME Group's (CME) Fedwatch tool shows that traders are pricing in a roughly 57% chance of a rate cut in May, and the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut appear to have fallen to a limit. If a Fed official appears on the TV screen tonight, it is likely to be the Fed's signal to the market.
Against the backdrop of divergent U.S. stock market trends, the Nikkei 225 index rose more than 2%, continuing to hit a new high since 1990.
Today, Japanese stocks opened higher throughout the day, once breaking through the 38,000-point mark in the intraday, only one step away from refreshing their all-time high at the turn of the 80s and 90s of the last century. As of the close of trading on the 13th, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 2.89% to 37,963.97 points, and Japan's Topix Index closed up 2.1% at 2,612.03 points, with nearly 1,600 of the 2,152 stocks in the Topix Index rising.
Among them, the Nikkei 225 index briefly rose more than 3% intraday, the biggest increase since November 2022. Technology stocks led the rally after Tokyo Electron raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance.
According to the analysis, there are several factors that make the Japanese stock market continue to hit new highs.
Stock dividends are growing.
Share buybacks continue to increase.
Accommodative monetary policy.
The yen has depreciated, and most companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange derive their main income from overseas markets, rather than the domestic market.
The adjustment of the global supply chain has brought opportunities to Japan.
According to the agency, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is expected to turn from loose to neutral in 2024, and the Japanese stock market may be better than India in 2024.
It is also worth mentioning that the FTSE China A50 Index, which is closely related to Chinese assets, also rose nearly 2%, feeling that the A-shares after the holiday have stabilized.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
American ships were attacked by missiles!
At noon local time on the 12th, Yemen's Houthi spokesman Yahya Sareya said, "The Houthis launched multiple missiles to attack the American ship 'Xinghong' sailing in the Red Sea." Sarea also reiterated that "the Houthis will continue their military operations until Israel ceases its military operations in the Gaza Strip and lifts the blockade of the Gaza Strip". The US side has not responded to this.
In addition, the latest news on the situation between Russia and Ukraine has aroused the attention of all parties.
The Global Times quoted the Wall Street Journal on February 11 as saying that the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said on the same day that the Russian army was using the "Starlink" system developed by SpaceX on a large scale on the front line. In response, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk responded urgently, saying, "Some fake news says that SpaceX is selling 'Starlink' terminals to Russia." This is absolutely wrong. ”
On February 12, local time, the Kremlin responded that Elon Musk's "Starlink" satellite Internet system has neither been certified for use in Russia nor officially supplied to Russia, so it cannot be used.
It is also worth mentioning that the whole of Europe is going to tremble again.
The trigger could have been Trump, who scored a brace.
Trump said he had told a head of state at a NATO meeting that under his leadership, the United States would not protect any country that was "in arrears."
In Trump's eyes, money is the most important thing, and it is absolutely impossible to ignore whether you are an enemy or an ally, and not give the United States enough protection money.
In fact, according to the disclosure of Western media, Trump is extremely angry about the reluctance of European countries to contribute more money, believing that this is all rubbing oil on the United States, and the United States almost withdrew from NATO in 2018. Now, Hu Hansan is coming back again, and you must pay the protection fee.
CNN's comments lamented that Trump's "inflammatory remarks" against NATO now make the whole of Europe shudder.
How will the gold market go?
Precious metals remain tight ahead of US inflation data for January, which could affect the outlook for interest rates.
From a technical point of view, gold prices have recently fluctuated in a narrow range, and the amplitude has narrowed in the range of 2011-2044 in the past week, and the daily level Bollinger bands are close to horizontal operation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of the Bollinger bands range 2005.84-2049.82.
Disclaimer: The above information is for reference only and is not used as a basis for trading!