Even if you have no interest in cars, but you see a BBA on the road, or a fuel car from Volkswagen or Toyota, you will most likely have a psychological expectation of its price. However, after the rise of new energy vehicles, whether it is hanging the logo of traditional car companies, or facing the ever-changing new forces of car manufacturing. It is difficult for us to give an expected judgment in our hearts as we did in the era of fuel vehicles. The price war, which has lasted for a year, is a product of the failure of this anchoring mentality. Car companies and users are constantly testing each other. So in 2024, how should new energy vehicles be priced, and even how can they be sold with high added value?
You have to reduce the price within 300,000 yuan, and you have to push a new car within 150,000 yuan?
Although we say that how to anchor the price of new energy vehicles is a problem, in the people-friendly price range of less than 300,000 yuan, this problem is slightly less difficult. The reason may be that at this price point, consumers can make a certain degree of comparison and judgment through the cost and experience of buying and using a car. For example, the incentives that continued to increase last year also include advantages such as purchase tax and vehicle use costs, as well as performance and energy consumption.
After all, except for the cheap products within 80,000 yuan, the products in the other price range of new energy vehicles are almost all growing. However, the data on the side of fuel vehicles gives a reference, according to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, last year's fuel vehicles in the range of 20-300,000 yuan declined significantly. Even if you don't look at the growth rate, only look at the absolute value of new car sales, and the sales proportion of new energy vehicles in the price range of 20-300,000 yuan last year has been close to 38%. This proportion is even higher than the overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China last year.
However, the sales of fuel vehicles of 10-200,000 yuan still achieved positive growth? The reason for this is that fuel vehicles of more than 200,000 yuan have taken the initiative to retreat under the competitive pressure of new energy vehicles, which cannot be ignored. For example, the pre-sale price of the new generation Toyota Camry announced at the beginning of the year was all within 210,000 yuan. The Honda Accord, which was replaced last year, also gradually increased the intensity of terminal discounts in the second half of the year. And they have been the top sellers of gasoline-powered mid-size cars in recent years. Looking at the new energy side, Geely Automobile alone threw out the Extreme Krypton 007 and Galaxy E8 at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, two brand-new products that make a fuss around the price of about 200,000 yuan.
This also seems to set a tone for the new energy vehicle market in 2024, that is, in terms of charging speed, mileage, handling performance, etc., more competitive new energy products will continue to put pressure on the fuel vehicle market within 200,000 yuan. At the same time, the repeated decline in the cost of raw materials for power batteries has also left room for the price of new energy stock products.
However, it is still a bit difficult to expect this part of pure electric products to continue to fall to less than 150,000 yuan. As the most stable basic plate of fuel vehicles, the sales of fuel vehicles in the 10-150,000 yuan market last year still accounted for more than 8% of the sales of new cars at the same price. In 2024, if new energy vehicles want to shake this sector, they can only count on new plug-in hybrid (including extended range) products. After all, no matter how much the cost of batteries drops, it will be difficult to launch such a large reduction in the case of uncompromising at the model level for a while. Unless a traditional car company like Volkswagen continues to "lose money and make money" on the ID. series. Second, with the decline in prices, consumers' diversified needs for car use scenarios are becoming more and more complex. Plug-in hybrid (including range extender) technology is undoubtedly more advantageous in both aspects. For example, the Chery Fengyun series has begun to move, and the price is still set at less than 120,000 yuan when the pure electric range exceeds 100km.
The level of intelligence is not enough, and you are not qualified to sell 200,000?
After all, with the price of more than 300,000 yuan, the difference between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles in terms of space, performance, and texture has been narrowed. And brand culture, word-of-mouth accumulation, or to put it simply, the ability to tell a story, is the moat of traditional car brands. So where is the breaking point of new energy vehicles? The answer may be the intelligent part. Because intelligence is a place where fuel vehicles are difficult to equalize, it is not that "refrigerators, color TVs, and large sofas" fuel vehicles cannot match. However, the output characteristics of the internal combustion engine and the natural limitations of the gearbox make the output calibration of fuel vehicles too complicated. Objectively, various perception hardware such as radars and cameras, as well as other execution hardware, are basically based on electrification to provide support. If the above is based on the L2 level of driving assistance, there is still no gap. So with more in-depth technical iteration, this brand fuel vehicle obviously can't continue to follow.
Having found a unique technological moat, the next thing to do is to guide consumers and meet consumer needs. The interest of domestic users in intelligence has basically been cultivated. In other words, at least in front of global users, its perception has achieved a far lead. Only in the first half of last year, according to the survey report released by the Passenger Association, the proportion of domestic new energy vehicles with L2 and above driving assistance functions is close to 40%, much higher than that of fuel models. According to data from a third-party research agency, the L2+ penetration rate in the Chinese market reached 5.7% in the third quarter of last year, much higher than the global level of 3.1%, and it also continued to lead the German and American markets.
And from the perspective of specific covered brands, taking Germany and the United States as examples, Tesla accounts for about 3-4% of the market share of providing L2+ driving assistance. The Chinese market, on the other hand, is dominated by Chinese brands. In addition, according to the financial report for the first three quarters released by Xpeng Motors last year, the version of Xpeng G6 equipped with XNGP function once accounted for nearly 7% of sales. According to Yu Chengdong's statement at the end of last year, the sales of the new AITO M7 intelligent driving version accounted for about 6%. The Xpeng Motors and Huawei Zhixuan brands are obviously the leaders in domestic driving assistance technology at present.
Obviously, if you want to capture the high-end market share in 2024, new energy vehicles must be priced at more than 300,000 yuan, or even higher, based on an intelligent moat. At the recent DENZA Auto User Communication Day, DENZA also said that it will build "the first brand in the industry to realize vehicle intelligence in production vehicles", which very clearly points to the development direction of DENZA Auto this year to the construction of intelligent systems including high-end driver assistance systems.
In addition, for the 20-300,000 yuan market segment where new energy vehicles won last year, intelligence also needs to be consolidated. Judging from the recently released new cars, perception and execution hardware, including lidar and air suspension, are rapidly being devolved to new energy bodies within 300,000 yuan. Perhaps in 2024, a new energy vehicle that lacks intelligent functions is no longer qualified to set the price at more than 200,000 yuan.