In the past few decades, Palestine and Israel have fought many wars, so many countries also feel that the round of war on 7 October will also subside as quickly as in the past, but several signals show that this time the probability will be different! Why do you say that? Just look at Lao and the United States.
The first is an emergency budget request to be submitted to Congress to support Israel.
The second is: the United States is carrying out the production and storage of strategic materials like World War II.
In just two paragraphs, the meaning behind it is extremely significant. Because the White House has released a signal, that is, the United States will enter the war. You know, the last time I made such a statement was when Roosevelt made a speech on Japan's declaration of war. Sure enough, the U.S. Navy really intervened in the battlefield on the 22nd, and the missile destroyer shot down the missiles and drones of the Yemeni Houthis in the Red Sea, firing the first shot for the "defense of Israel".
All this shows that the Palestinian-Israeli war is expanding. After the United States is gone, will Iran come to an end? Will Russia follow suit? If Russia intervenes, will Europe follow suit?
Seeing this, you may think that the United States has made the same mistake again, they are afraid that the world will not be chaotic, and Biden's previous trip to Israel was also to cheer. But in fact, his old man is there to persuade him!
I didn't expect that they would even persuade them to fight? This is because Israel is too out of line this time!
In order to destroy Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went so far as to publicly declare in an official posture that the government will launch a ground military operation to occupy part of Gaza!
After the Israeli side expressed its position, Iran, Syria, Lebanon's Allah Party and other regimes and Islamic forces immediately jointly issued a warning: If Israel really dares to do this, it will surely usher in a multi-front battle! Many countries in the Middle East have also expressed their dissatisfaction and have called on the international community to take action to avoid the outbreak of a large-scale war.
Seeing that things are getting bigger, Lao Mei has to come forward to clean up the mess, after all, the whole world knows that Israel has received strong support from Lao Mei over the years in order to become a little bully in the Middle East.
Therefore, the United States said that Israel's decision is a huge mistake that may lead to the outbreak of a sixth Middle East war in the region. At the same time, Biden also called for the establishment of humanitarian evacuation corridors to ensure the safety of residents of the Gaza Strip.
In other words, the attitude of the United States this time, at least on the surface, is no longer one-sided support for Israel. So what happened to them that sent aircraft carriers and warships before?
It can only be said that the right and wrong signals between the United States and Israel have led to the escalation of the situation.
In Lao Mei's view, this is just a kind of routine support for the little brother, which probably means: I know that the Arabs are making trouble for you again, so I will give something to warn you not to make a big fuss. On the one hand, this can win over the Jewish forces in the old United States, and on the other hand, it can also show its strong strength by "supporting Israel" and tell everyone that it can still firmly control the Middle East.
However, Israel misunderstood the meaning of the eldest brother, and felt that Lao Mei's routine support was a hint: The eldest brother covers you, and the younger brother should not be cowardly!
As a result, Israel did not give face to anyone, nor did it listen to the warnings of the countries in the Middle East, and only wanted to quickly control Gaza, they carried out large-scale mobilization, and urgently unsealed the stocks of tanks, machine guns and ammunition, and even the Israeli army also massed around Gaza on a large scale, and even armored bulldozers were ready.
Lao Mei looked at it, this is not quite right! I just mean it, why are you crazy? What makes Lao Mei even more troublesome is that the little brother has done everything absolutely and his verbal speech is not good, and Israel has made several speeches to the outside world, and he has not been less than propagating neo-Nazi remarks.
For example, "no Gazan is innocent" and "absolve the IDF of responsibility for all military operations in the Gaza area". What does this mean? This is to make it clear to the Israeli army, even if you do it to civilians, you will not have to bear the consequences! What is this not Nazi?
But here's the problem: Israel's approach is not in line with the Middle East strategy of the United States and is a flagrant violation of international law, and it is untenable both morally and legally.
First of all, the focus of Laos' Middle East strategy is to "divide and rule" and prevent the formation of a unified camp in the Middle East and support pro-US regimes, so that it will be convenient for them to control oil resources.
Second, the current strategic focus of Laos and the United States is more on East Asia and Russia. Especially after the war between Russia and Ukraine, their layout in the Middle East has actually tightened. If Israel really makes a big fuss, then the United States must support the driver on the one hand to cope with the pressure from Russia, and on the other hand, support Israel to contend with the entire Arab world.
At that time, the United States will have to hemorrhage militarily and financially, and what is even more terrifying is that their hegemony is linked to the dollar and oil. Once the Arab countries embargo oil to Europe and the United States, as they did in 1973, oil prices will fly up again, and then a new round of oil crisis and economic crisis will come again, and this will be a disaster for the old United States, which relies on finance to build its country.
Next year's new round of elections in the United States is coming, Biden has been overwhelmed by the domestic racist movement and the U.S. debt crisis, and now Israel is stabbing Lou Zi in the Middle East, of course he is in a hurry to persuade him, otherwise once it gets out of control, does he want to continue to do it next year?
So he hurriedly sent diplomatic experts and Blinken to put out the fire. It's a pity that Israel is now red-eyed and disobedient at all. Saudi Arabia was greeted by Iran, so when Blinken went to do ideological work, he was directly hung by Saudi Arabia overnight, and later went to Egypt, where he was also beaten up.
The secretary of state of a big country, where has he been wronged, Blinken said that I can't do this job, or you old man will do it yourself. So Biden could only drag his 81-year-old body and sit on a plane for more than ten hours to talk to his little brother in person.
He has a good plan, he wants to go to Israel first to hold Netanyahu down, and then go to Jordan, let them be peacemakers, call the presidents of Palestine and Egypt too, and everyone sit down and negotiate. Biden's trip wants to achieve two goals: one is to persuade Israel to stabilize its impulses, and the other is to hope that Jordan and Egypt will help clean up the mess and accept refugees from Gaza.
Biden calculated well, but he did not count Israel's own doing, the day before the trilateral meeting between the United States, Jordan, and Egypt, he openly bombed the Al Ahli Arab hospital, school and parking lot in Gaza, killing at least 500 civilians, most of them children. Such extreme atrocities completely cross the bottom line of the international community's tacit assumption, that is, that the flames of war must not affect civilians, let alone children.
Sure enough, the cancellation of the tripartite meeting not only angered the Middle East region, but even many Western countries that have been standing on Israel's side have come out to condemn and turn the wind to show solidarity with Palestine. Lao Mei diligently wiped her little brother's ass in front, but Israel didn't appreciate it, who can bear this?
Therefore, what does it mean that the United States has not succeeded in holding Israel down at all, nor does it have the face to let the big brothers in the Arab world, such as Jordan and Egypt, cooperate in cleaning up the mess? It shows that the United States does not have enough influence and is no longer able to perfectly control the situation and forcefully settle the Palestinian-Israeli war as before!
In other words, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is on the verge of spiraling out of control!
So why is the Israeli army so slow to fully mobilize?
There are three reasons for this:
- Israel's IDF is not worthy of its name, and its strength is declining too quickly.
They seem to be invincible in the Middle East and have not tasted defeat in the first five regional wars, but not because they are too good, but because their allies are too strong and their enemies are too weak. But now that Europe is in an energy crisis, and its arsenals have been depleted by Ukraine, it is simply not possible to transfuse blood to Israel as it did in the previous five Middle East wars. Laos and the United States are also taking care of both ends of the country, and the intensity of assistance is not as strong as before. In addition, in the Israel Defense Forces, the elite who have gone through World War II and have really seen blood have all been retired, and the quality of the new batch of soldiers who have risen to the top has seriously declined, and they cannot be compared with the combat strength of the previous generation. They can survive a small-scale operation, but if they participate in a large-scale modern war of hundreds of thousands of people, they may have little experience.
- The Israeli army's support in all respects is relatively poor.
Israel is very rich, but the rich are all capitalist groups and warlords, and the government is actually very poor, and the fiscal deficit is perennial. In order to reduce spending, the government has reduced military spending several times, and equipment cannot be cut, so only soldiers' salaries will be cut. At present, the monthly salary of soldiers in the front-line combat units of the Israeli regular army is less than 800 US dollars, which is equivalent to only about 5,500 yuan.
They fought the front line, and the income they earned was less than half of Israel's legal salary! That is to say, civilians who did not participate in the war comfortably huddled in the rear to work, and their monthly income was at least twice that of the soldiers, and this led to a very bad atmosphere in the Israeli army, and many people were not active in fighting.
Third, the complex situation makes them uncertain about winning the war, and the consequences are difficult to control.
The whole area of Gaza is densely populated with low-rise buildings, a large number of civilians and armed forces cooperate with each other, you throw a dirt bomb, I dig a tunnel to cover, the guerrillas in Gaza are basically flexible to change lines, and run away after harassment, once the Israeli army really launches a ground military operation and goes deep into the hinterland of Gaza, it is easy for those who are unfamiliar with the place to capsize in the gutter, and even if they win, the casualty ratio will definitely be very high. Don't look at the clamor of the Netanyahu government, if there is really a crushing victory and the casualties exceed the expectations of the people, then what awaits him will definitely be boiling public opinion, or even being ousted from power in embarrassment.
Of course, Israel can do whatever it wants, but it is easy to start a war and difficult to end it, and if the front is really rolled out in an all-round way, after multiple forces intervene, it is up to them to decide how it ends. Although it is mainly the Palestinians who shed blood, the blood they shed will soon become the glue of the Arab countries in the Middle East, and no matter how they fight, when facing foreign enemies, even if they pretend, they will not make Israel feel better.
On the one hand, the United States is in a dilemma, on the other hand, Israel itself has set itself up, if their ground troops enter Gaza, there are only two endings, either once and for all, or fall into the abyss, it depends on how Israel wants to gamble.