ST stocks with poor performance have started a halving competition, and there are many people who have fallen for five consecutive days a week. The knock-in of snowball products, the replenishment of pledges by major shareholders, and the replenishment of margins by the two financial accounts have become the three mountains of the trading side under the fluctuation of A-shares
Text: Zhang Yun
Edit | Guo Nan
The last week of January is always sad, and the fundamentals of many companies have changed during this period as the annual report forecast progresses.
Xiao Cai, who does not believe in evil, was seriously injured again, and he thought that he might be able to escape by hiding in the stocks whose performance forecasts exceeded expectations, but he didn't expect the sand and muddy market to teach him another lesson.
For the short term, the most correct thing to do last week (January 29-February 2, the same below) is, of course, to bear hands short, but how many people have become cannon fodder in the shouting of buying the bottom against the trend.
Xiaodao told Xiao Cai many years ago that the short-term is less affected by the fundamentals, "The short-term is trading sentiment rather than the company's fundamentals." Everyone holds shares for two or three days at most, can it be said that a money-making company in two or three days will immediately become unprofitable?" But what Xiaodao didn't tell Xiao Cai was that there are several special periods in a year, and it can indeed make a money-making company become unprofitable in two or three days, and the annual report forecast period is one of them.
Many listed companies disclosed lower-than-expected performance forecasts before the end of January, superimposed on weak market confidence, five trading days a week, every day is 100 shares down limit, or close to the 100 shares down limit.
The pressure on the trading side brought by the market decline has gradually increased, the snowball product needs to be knocked in, the major shareholder needs to supplement the pledge, the two financial accounts need to replenish the margin, and the three mountains on the trading side that are most related to market fluctuations have been lit up one after another.
According to the research of some sell-side analysts, the snowball product linked to the CSI 1000 has borne the brunt of the "mine demining". The Huachuang Xu Kang team said, "At present, the risk of the centralized knock-in area of the CSI 1000 has been cleared, but there are still a small number of CSI 500 that are still in the centralized knock-in area."
In terms of the two financial institutions, the same estimates from Huachuang Xu Kang and others show that since January, the two financial customers have continued to increase their margins, and the guarantee funds have increased by 26.6 billion yuan in the past month. Judging from the trading data, there has not yet been a large-scale liquidation that has led to a decline in the market. On January 30, the net selling volume of financing was 11.47 billion yuan, accounting for 0.85% of the market trading volume, and the net selling volume of securities lending and borrowing was 960 million yuan, accounting for 0.07% of the market trading volume.
CITIC Securities estimates that as of January 26, 2024, the pledge scale of major shareholders has been significantly reduced, and the overall risk has decreased significantly.
Northbound bought 9.938 billion yuan again last week, net buying for four consecutive days. In the process of accelerating the decline of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, there has been a large volume.
(Northbound net inflows last week)
(Trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets)
Accelerated decline
Last week, the Wind All A Index accelerated its decline, and a long solid negative line appeared on the weekly line, although there was a rebound at the end of Friday, but from the perspective of the whole week, the rebound was small.
(Wind All A Weekly Chart)
In terms of market style, micro-cap stocks, which had a glorious year last year, finally ushered in a decline, with the Wind micro-cap index falling 21.69% last week, and there was no style index rising in the whole market.
(Wind Market Style Index Weekly Change)
None of the 31 Shenwan first-class industry indices rose. Last year's computer, electronics and other industry indexes, which rose the most, have fallen by more than 25% since the beginning of this year, making them the worst performing industry indexes this year.
The best performing sector indices so far this year are banks and coal, both of which are high-dividend stocks.
(Shenwan first-class industry index weekly change)
(Top 10 bull stocks last week)
(Top 10 bear stocks last week)
Last week, bull stocks were concentrated in the "Chinese word head", bear stocks were concentrated in ST shares, the top 10 stocks that fell nearly halved, and after the release of the performance forecast, some listed companies were about to be delisted during the year.
When the performance side and the trading side are being dismantled
According to Guojun Strategy Research, as of January 31, there were 2,750 companies that disclosed their 2023 performance forecasts, of which 42% were pre-happy, and 527 companies with more than 10 billion yuan were pre-announced, accounting for 58%.
(Distribution of A-share performance forecast types in 2023, source: Guojun Strategy)
The median net profit growth of all A earnings forecasts was 16.6%, of which 23.6% were companies that doubled their earnings forecasts. Based on the forecast rate and forecast growth rate, the top Shenwan first-class industries in 2023 include: beauty/non-banking/automobile/social services/public utilities, and the industries with the lowest growth rate include: coal/real estate/military/electronics. Industries with a high proportion of stocks that have doubled their net profits: social services/beauty/textile services/non-banking/transportation, with a growth rate of less than -100% Industries with a high proportion of stocks: agriculture and animal husbandry/real estate/coal/computers.
(Shenwan's first-class industry performance forecast profit growth rate)
Last week, the market reacted violently to the earnings forecast, and the number of A-shares falling in the five trading days were: 83, 87, 184, 99, and 108, with ST shares being the hardest hit area.
At the same time, market funds have grouped in the performance of the stocks, and the stocks that rose better last week have performance support. Zhongma Transmission's annual report forecasts a year-on-year increase of 63.33% to 87.01%;China Television Media expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of 258 million yuan to 298 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year turnaround;Zhongji Health forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023 of 80 million to 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 206.69% to 321.70%.
On the other hand, there are three mountains on the trading side related to the index, namely the snowball knock-in, the supplementary pledge of major shareholders, and the supplementary margin of the two financial institutions.
Agency estimates believe that the peak of snowball knocking has passed. "Based on the current index estimate, on January 31, the total knock-in scale of snowball products of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 was about 50 billion yuan to 70 billion yuan, and the total scale of non-knock-in snowball products was 110 billion yuan to 130 billion yuan, and most of the snowball products were knocked in areas relatively scattered. Huachuang Xu Kang said.
Xu Kang's team also said: Recently, the market is worried that the forced liquidation of the two financial institutions will lead to a sharp decline in the market. "From the perspective of the maintenance ratio, the maintenance ratio has indeed fallen to 235% since January (down 19.8 percentage points from the beginning of the year), and structural pressure is not ruled out, but there is still a large distance from the strong flat line. ”
CITIC Securities sorted out the current situation of pledge financing by major shareholders: "At present, the scale of pledge continues to shrink, and the proportion of the market value of the A-share market continues to decline. As of January 26, 2024, there were 2,676 unpledged companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, accounting for 52%, and among the participating companies, the average and median pledge ratios showed a downward trend, reaching 11% and 9% respectively. We estimate that as of January 26, 2024, the total size of pledges is 2.57 trillion yuan, accounting for about 3.1% of the total market value of A-shares. In addition, the current pledge rate is low, such as the pledge rate of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the on-market pledge of unrestricted conditional shares is around 40%, which helps to reduce the overall risk of the stock pledge market. ”
The hot topics in the market rumors over the weekend are mainly focused on the official launch of Apple's Vision Pro headset and the release of the first document of this year by the central government.
The No. 1 document of the central government still focuses on the three rural issues, and the document proposes to "ensure national food security and ensure that there is no large-scale return to poverty as the bottom line; focus on improving the level of rural industrial development, rural construction and rural governance; strengthen the two-wheel drive of science and technology and reform, strengthen measures to increase farmers' income; fight a beautiful battle for the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas; draw a new picture of livable and workable and beautiful villages; and accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas to better promote Chinese-style modernization".