Zhang Kexi: Japan's "Kishida Rebellion" has messed up the Liberal Democratic Party

-- The ninth draft of the series on Chinese think tank experts predicting the situation in 2024

For Prime Minister Kishida, at the beginning of the new year, "the house leak happened to rain overnight, and the ship broke and encountered a head wind": On the first day of the new year, the Noto earthquake was a natural disaster, and on the second day of the new year, at Tokyo's Haneda Airport, a coast guard plane collided with a civil airliner and suffered a man-made disaster. Although the two events happened one after another, it seems to indicate that Prime Minister Kishida "has a bad year".

Sure enough, on January 19, in the face of the party-wide "black gold" issue, Prime Minister Kishida, in order to protect himself, did not necessarily "deliberate" and arbitrarily announced the dissolution of the Koikekai, which had just resigned as chairman, as if he had "cut his wrist and broken his arm", and immediately received a response from the Abe faction and the Nikai faction, but this move was resolutely resisted by the Aso faction and others. Prime Minister Kishida had no choice but to stop fighting, raised his hands and surrendered, and was defeated without a fight. This incident became known as the "Kishida Rebellion".

"Kishida no Ran"

The "Kishida Rebellion" was a political crisis that "caused a disaster", and its beginning and end were as follows:

2023

On November 18, the media reported that five factions of the Liberal Democratic Party had been accused of violating the law by failing to register political funds.

On December 1, prosecutors found that the Abe faction, the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, was suspected of having a huge amount of "black gold";

On December 3, 2023, prosecutors found that the second-order faction was also suspected of non-registration of political funds;

On December 9, it was discovered that six cabinet officials of the Abe faction were suspected of "black gold";

On December 14, four Abe cabinet ministers were removed by Prime Minister Kishida on suspicion of "black gold";

On December 19, the Special Investigation Department of the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors' Office indicted the then head of accounting of the Abe faction (Seiwa Policy Research Association), the Nikai faction (Shishuai Association), and the Kishida faction (Koikekai) on suspicion of violating the Political Funds Regulation Act.

2024

On the afternoon of January 18, Kishida quietly summoned the cadres of his faction to the official residence one by one and told them that the dissolution of the faction was "not a retreat, but an attack";

On January 19, Kishida announced the dissolution of the Kishida faction, the Koikekai. This has been called "a coup d'état carried out by the supreme leadership of the prime minister, president, and president";

In the afternoon of the same day, at the party headquarters, Prime Minister Kishida held talks with Vice President Aso, and afterwards, he held talks with Secretary General Motegi, the chairman of the Motegi faction. Prime Minister Kishida said, "If there is a problem with this faction, we need to put an end to it." The Aso school is the Aso school", and did not dispute Aso's opinion;

On January 21, Prime Minister Kishida hosted Aso at the Japanese restaurant "Yamazato" at The Okura Tokyo Hotel in Toraman and apologized for the "dissolution of the faction" without prior contact, and since then, Prime Minister Kishida's "dissolution faction" has become "the faction must return to its original policy bloc";

On January 25, an extraordinary meeting of the LDP General Council formally decided on the "interim report" of the Political Reform Headquarters on political reform. Prime Minister Kishida said that the faction "must be reborn as the original policy bloc." In addition, the "interim report" also stipulates that "factions are prohibited from holding fund-raising parties" and "do not interfere in cabinet personnel issues", but there is no further mention of "disbanding factions", and the content of closing faction offices is deleted, and the "re-election system" is not adopted.

On January 25, Hiroshi Moriyama, chairman of the General Affairs Committee of the Liberal Democratic Party, announced the dissolution of the Society for the Study of Near-Future Politics that he led.

On January 29, LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi announced that "the so-called factions will be disbanded" and that the "Heisei Research Society" he leads will transform into a "new policy-based group."

At this point, the "Kishida Rebellion" with the aim of "disbanding all factions" was basically over.

The aftermath of the "Kishida Rebellion" was severe

Although the "Kishida Rebellion" was quelled by Vice President Aso in a short period of time, Prime Minister Kishida's short-term stab left a serious consequence: the entire Liberal Democratic Party was cut down. Without the "unanimous party system," Prime Minister Kishida does not look like the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, but only a representative of the Koike faction. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is leaderless and independent. Five factions, including the Kishida faction, were dissolved, while the Aso faction claimed that it would continue to maintain its factions, the newly established coalition of parliamentarians, the Political Reform Council (15 members), advocated the dissolution of all factions, and Tatsuo Fukuda, the son of Yasuo Fukuda and a former chairman of the general affairs of the Liberal Democratic Party, said that a new faction would be formed......

Prime Minister Kishida did not seek advice from Taro Aso (chairman of the Shikai Association and vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party) and Toshimitsu Motegi (chairman of the Heisei Research Association and secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party) on the issue of disbanding the faction in advance, but acted arbitrarily, which made Aso "furious", and the alliance with these two factions in the formation of a cabinet was cracked, and the "troika" of the Kishida cabinet was in danger of falling apart.

Taro Aso, as Prime Minister Kishida's "guardian and negotiator", held talks with Prime Minister Kishida in December after the "black gold" issue occurred, and there were even rumors that Aso was also in charge of the cabinet personnel after the purging of the Abe faction. In view of this, Prime Minister Kishida had to bow his head to Aso afterwards and admit his mistake. However, the resulting beam may be difficult to eliminate. This should be the beginning of the parting of ways between the two.

In this political crisis, none of the LDPs has been hurt more seriously than the Abe faction. The situation in which the Abe faction was "one strong and the dominant power" that had developed during Abe's tenure as prime minister was thus wiped out: not only were the "cadres" of the faction removed from the cabinet, but all the chairmen of the 13 committees or special committees held by the Abe faction in the Diet were replaced, the faction was forced to dissolve, and the "Five Tiger Generals" and others were also in danger of being persuaded to leave the party. Although the possibility of the remnants of the faction gathering together for a comeback exists, it is easier said than done.

The second-order faction can be said to be "implicated" and forced to disband, and the head of the faction, the second-order Toshihiro, is indignant because of this, and Hongikekai is "self-cutting incense" this time. Within the LDP, the Nikai faction was a remnant of the Tanaka (Kakuei) faction, while the Koikekai faction was founded by Shigeru Yoshida, and later famous leaders such as Yuto Ikeda and Masahiro Ohira advocated peaceful development and democracy in political philosophy. Due to the increasing conservatism of Japanese politics, the power of these two factions has been declining. The "Kishida Rebellion" caused the two factions to be wiped out, and it can be said that they were wiped out together with the far-right Abe faction.

On the surface, the biggest beneficiary of this incident was the Aso faction, the party's conservative stronghold. The faction was almost unscathed, and it became the mainstay of the LDP by winning the "righteous name" for the faction's continued existence.

In particular, Chairman Taro Aso, as vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, openly played against Prime Minister Kishida, emphasizing the role of factions, declaring that "policies should not rely solely on officials, but should be based on factions as policy groups, as a policy group that actively studys, studies, and formulates policies, and strives to complete the policy group of the National Trust."

Will this faction continue to reign as the largest faction in the LDP, or will it stand out from the crowd and remain honorably isolated? This is because if the privileges of fund-raising and personnel recommendation are truly severed, the LDP faction will also be dead.

A senior politician from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) commented on Prime Minister Kishida's move to "dissolve the faction" as follows: "Disbanding the 'faction' is changing the signboard to a 'policy bloc,'" and dismissed it as a "play on words."

The great loss of popular support was the greatest loss to the LDP due to the Kishida Rebellion. It has been reported that "public distrust of politics has reached its peak." According to a poll conducted by Jiji in January, the LDP's support was only 14.6 percent, breaking the lowest record to date of 15.1 percent in the Aso cabinet (July 2007) and the lowest since the survey began in June 1960.

Regarding the "interim report" of the Political Renewal Headquarters established by Prime Minister Kishida, media reported that as of January 27, less than 3% of the 17,320 votes were positive, while 97.4% were negative.

Within the LDP, there are fears that the Kishida Rebellion will be "unclear whether it will be good or bad," and that it will even be the entrance to events that led to a split in the party, just like the Rikulut incident in 1989.

Outlook on the political situation

Japan's crisis of political confidence is also known as the "Kishida coup." The history of this has been for a long time, the number of members involved in the case is unprecedented, and the amount of "black money" is huge, and based on past experience, there is a danger that the LDP will be thrown out of the opposition again.

However, it is reported that Prime Minister Kishida will remain in power as a "low-fly" situation until the March budget is established (TBS, December 16, 2023).

Some media also predicted that after the draft budget was passed by the Diet in March, Vice President Aso may "make a difficulty" and plan to dissolve the Diet, hold a general election, and establish a cabinet controlled by him.

Even if Prime Minister Kishida does not exercise the power of the prime minister to dissolve the House of Representatives, it will be difficult for him to get a second term in the LDP presidential re-election in September.

As for next year's general election (House of Representatives election), it is difficult to predict whether the LDP will win a majority of seats (including a coalition with the Komeito Party). This is because although the broad masses of the Japanese people are extremely dissatisfied with the LDP, because they have experienced the previous defeat of the DPJ in power, the opposition parties in a fragmented state may not be able to unite again to win a majority of votes and replace the LDP. This is indicated by the opinion of netizens: "Looking at the tragic situation when the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) took power in the past, it is better for the LDP to be in power. "Other parties can't. There have been previous examples of the Democratic Party in power. Either way, no experience is a no-brainer. ”

The "black gold" issue has completely aroused extreme distrust of politics and the LDP, and it is inconceivable that the people will easily accept Kishida's proposals.

There has long been a saying in Japanese political circles: "I don't know what will happen tomorrow in the world of politics." A more vivid description is that the political world is "like a dark night, and you can't see your fingers."

It is believed that LDP politics will not change course because of Prime Minister Kishida's "political innovation". The reason is that the characteristics of LDP politics lie in the word "snobbery": power is power, number of people, and profit is money. The LDP's faction is innate. This time, the problem is a "recurrence of chronic disease", and it is slightly different from the previous recurrence of a large area - five of the six factions are suspected - and only the Moriyama faction, which has only eight members, has survived.

Kenji Gogoto, a journalist and professor emeritus at Hakume University, believes that "the so-called history of the LDP is, in the final analysis, a history of scandals" and that "scandals around politics and money occur periodically."

The history of the LDP is indeed a history of money scandals. In May 1989, the LDP formulated the Political Reform Guidelines, which stipulated that the president, vice president, secretary-general, and cabinet officials should not hold factional fund-raising parties or cabinet parties during their term of office, and that they should restrict themselves from setting up factional offices.

Soon after the LDP split in 1993, the LDP lost its relative majority in the House of Representatives election, and eight small opposition parties jointly elected Hosokawa Gohei as prime minister. At this point, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was left in opposition, and the 38-year "Fifth Five-Year Plan" came to an end.

Despite the disastrous defeat of Shimono, LDP politicians have not learned the lessons of history, and they have completely forgotten the rules of 35 years ago. The hastily thrown out "intermediate report" this time only repeats the proposition of the "Political Reform Outline" 35 years ago, and it is doubtful how effective it can be.

According to a recent poll, 61.3% of the Kishida cabinet disapprove of the incident, more than 70% do not believe that the LDP's political reform headquarters will prevent a recurrence, and only 16% believe that it will be effective.

Japanese public opinion generally believes that the LDP's current "political innovation" is "a change of soup but not a change of medicine," and that as soon as the incident has passed, "the scars have been healed and the pain has been forgotten."

Even Taro Aso, vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, believes that "Prime Minister Kishida's dissolution of the faction is a pandering doctrine to win the hearts and minds of the people." It's not going to last long."

"There are no factions in the party, and there are all kinds of strange things."

A new regrouping within the LDP has begun. What is worrying is that, as in the past, the rightward shift in Japanese politics will be further deepened after an incident.