Reading guide:We mentioned in an article we wrote earlier,The fund manager's alpha is used to hold the "lower limit",Beta is used to capture the "upper limit" of returns。 In the structural bull market of 2019-2021, everyone paid more attention to the upper limit of returns, and obtained relatively high investment returns by buying beta products that fit the macro and industrial environment at that time.
However, so far in 2022, the market as a whole has presented a weak beta environment. More and more investors are beginning to understand the importance of maintaining the "lower limit" of returns, and they no longer pursue high returns, but prefer to obtain stable absolute returns. In the upward cycle of the interest rate environment, stable absolute returns are very scarce (especially for weighted products), which requires the investment system of the fund manager to be able to effectively adapt to market fluctuations and create alpha against the market.
We see that Zhang Yifei and Li Jun, the "twin stars" in the field of "fixed income +" and mixed investment of Essence Fund, have basically achieved positive returns in the whole year of history, from the dual debt strategy fund (pure debt + convertible bonds) to the low equity position (the proportion of stock investment in the total assets of the fund in the fourth quarter of 2023 is less than 30%)!
Source: Wind, data as of December 31, 2023
Many people's understanding of them comes from the steady value-added of the flagship product Anxin. This product was launched on May 25, 2015, when A-shares were at an all-time high in hot sentiment and chasing relative performance. Zhang Yifei, who has forward-looking product thinking, hopes to create a stable investment tool, strive to make some money for holders every year, and the performance will be good in the long run.
In this way, in the eight full years from 2016 to 2023, Essence has achieved positive returns in its steady value-added, including the circuit breaker in 2016, the bear market in 2018 and 2022, and the structural weak market in 2023. Among them, 2018 was the second year of decline in the history of A-shares. It can be said that Zhang Yifei and Li Jun rely on pure bonds, convertible bonds, and stocks to achieve positive returns every year, which is a very amazing performance.
Source: Wind, data as of December 31, 2023
Perhaps the income of a single year is not remarkable, but the stable absolute return of each year can greatly improve the holding experience of investors, and truly achieve "fund yield = basic rate of return". In the long run, the problem with the A-share market is not that there is a lack of yields, but that the volatility is too high, resulting in a low Sharpe ratio. Fund holders bear excessive volatility in order to make gains.
According to the statistics of the Shanghai Securities Fund Research and Evaluation Center, the annualized rate of return of the CSI 300 Total Return Index in the past 10 years is 6.22%, which should be much higher than that of wealth management products in the same period. However, the CSI 300 index has fallen for half of the past 10 years, in 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023. For holders, if they don't get the full increase in the year of the upswing, the annualized yield will decay significantly.
Source: Wind, Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation and Research Center
In a highly volatile market environment, what is seen and what is received becomes inconsistent, and past returns will change in the future, which is precisely the characteristic of the A-share market. Funds that can effectively reduce volatility and obtain corresponding returns can make what they see and what they receive converge, and the returns of the past can usually be carried over into the future.
It is believed that after experiencing the weak market volatility in the past few years, more and more holders will cherish fund managers like Zhang Yifei and Li Jun. In essence, "fixed income +" and equity-bond hybrid products are not varieties that ensure absolute returns, but why can Zhang Yifei and Li Jun continue to bring absolute returns to holders?
We hope that through in-depth dismantling, everyone can understand the strength behind their performance.
A steadily evolving investment system
The biggest difference between absolute and relative returns is that they put forward high requirements for the stability of returns. Assuming that two different products achieve the same return on a 10-year scale, the relative return may be to "subsidize" the poor or losing years with the high yield obtained in a few years, while the absolute return requires a positive return in each year.
There is a fundamental difference between the two ways of thinking about investing. Relative return investors have some romanticism, hoping that heavy positions in doubling stocks and 10 baggers will bring sublimation in investment. Absolute return investors, on the other hand, are more realistic and pursue to find as many assets as possible that can make money, and the winning rate is far more important than the odds.
Paul Samuelson once said that investing should be boring, more like watching paint dry or grass growing. We feel that we should add another qualifier: absolute return investing is boring.
Zhang Yifei and Li Jun have created a seemingly boring but very stable investment system with two most basic principles:
1) Fluctuation control at the aggregate level. Zhang Yifei and Li Jun manage products with different risk-return characteristics, ranging from interest rate bond base, primary debt base, secondary debt base to equity and debt hybrid products, and the maximum drawdown and volatility that each product can accept is different. Through the fluctuation control at the aggregate level, a "risk management budget" is set for each product, leaving room for positions, even if the market volatility exceeds expectations, it will not be too passive;
2) Continue to look for assets with the best risk-to-reward ratio. The benefit of forming a system is that fund managers can "reduce energy consumption" in the process of investing. No matter how the market changes, Zhang Yifei and Li Jun always focus on finding the asymmetry between risk and return, and "pack" assets that can provide a higher probability of winning in the volatility range.
A good system must also be highly adaptable. Especially in the A-share market, due to the relatively large volatility, the "spring, summer, autumn and winter rotation" will be repeated every once in a while. A good system must be able to adapt to different seasons. We see that Zhang Yifei and Li Jun's investment system is also steadily iterating, showing strong adaptability.
For example, after October 2018, credit risks occurred frequently, Zhang Yifei and Li Jun did not do credit sinking on the bond side, and adhered to the allocation strategy of high-grade and short-term duration; in 2021, they discovered the risk-return asymmetry of convertible bond assets, mined the value of convertible bonds from the bottom up, built a core pool, and continuously carried out "metabolism"; in the second half of 2022, they found that the volatility of the stock market was still amplifying, so they started "double-line optimization", and Zhang Yifei maintained asset independence. Focusing on the strategy of undervalued assets (mainly in the large market), Li Jun has further diversified risk assets (balance of large, medium and small caps) and opened up a strategy with lower volatility.
This adaptability brings more diverse sources of income and makes the investment system more stable. Each of the revenue elements can be formed into an army on its own. In 2023, Li Jun's low-volatility strategy has achieved good results, and the low-volatility secondary bond base he manages, Anxin Yongxin, has increased by 8.734 billion yuan in scale and 8.362 billion shares, ranking first in the annual growth of scale and share in the secondary bond base of the whole market.
Entering 2024, Zhang Yifei and Li Jun are still thinking about strategies to further reduce product volatility. At a time when bond yields are at historically low levels, they have practiced the effectiveness of treasury bond futures as a hedge against interest rate risk, giving this part of the underlying income assets another "insurance gate". Combining the assets of the enhanced part, Li Jun's low-volatility strategy will make convertible bonds and equities equally important, and neither class of assets is required. Most of the time, equity positions are a combination of the two, and stocks and convertible bonds will also be considered together after conversion for risk control. At present, the opportunity of convertible bonds is better, and Li Jun's low-volatility strategy products are more inclined to allocate convertible bonds.
Behind this steadily evolving investment system is the concern and reflection on the financial needs of investors. A good fund manager must know how to invest, but a trustworthy fund manager also needs to understand the product and the customer. This is also the difference between Zhang Yifei and Li Jun.
Embrace volatility risk management
Over the years, more and more people have found that relying only on the "seesaw" effect of stocks and bonds cannot completely reduce portfolio volatility. This is because the volatility of A-shares is much higher than that of bonds, and when the stock position exceeds 20%, it is difficult for the risk-return characteristics of the entire product to smooth the volatility of stocks through bonds.
So, how did Zhang Yifei and Li Jun reduce volatility? We found that they mainly controlled fluctuations from two dimensions: space and time.
From the spatial dimension, they basically buy stocks on the left side, contrarian investment. As long as the downside of the stock can be sealed, they are willing to buy it. They believe that it is relatively simple to judge the cost performance, but it is more difficult to judge whether it will rise immediately. This brings us to the second problem, which is to reduce volatility in the time dimension and achieve portfolio stability.
In terms of time, they will buy a portfolio of assets. When this batch of stocks is bought, they don't know when they will rise, but from the perspective of the portfolio, each stock has its own rhythm, which ultimately reflects that the portfolio has stocks rising at different stages, and the fluctuations are smooth in the time dimension.
In terms of the management of specific stock portfolios, Zhang Yifei and Li Jun have some differences.
Zhang Yifei's volatility control comes from the micro level of specific stocks, mainly for the correlation of fundamentals between individual stocks and the dispersion of the value of individual stocks through in-depth research to reduce the volatility of the portfolio.
Li Jun achieves low volatility at the portfolio level through a more even distribution of individual stocks, highly disperses the allocation of undervalued stocks in various industries, and strips off the luck factor of investment in a similar quantitative way.
In addition to stocks, they also have strong multi-asset research and judgment capabilities. In 2021, they began to conduct in-depth research and allocation of convertible bond assets, mainly because they saw that in the bull market of core assets in the past few years, a large number of small and medium-cap convertible bonds have become the hardest hit areas, providing a good risk-return ratio.
Convertible bonds are very important and characteristic in Zhang Yifei and Li Jun's portfolios, and they are assets with higher security and easier returns. Convertible bonds are more valuable than stocks, which can accumulate value through business operations, while convertible bonds can be discovered at low prices, in other words, as long as you find a convertible bond that is cheap enough, you will be able to make money with a high probability.
Zhang Yifei and Li Jun prefer convertible bonds with strong debt, and the downward fluctuation is protected by the debt base, which is easier to account for in the limited fluctuation allocation of the entire portfolio. They take pricing as the first criterion, buy more when the price is cheap, and don't buy when the price is expensive. With the rise and fall of the price of convertible bonds, the value ratio of call options changes, and when the price rises, the proportion of option value increases, and the proportion of debt base value decreases. Therefore, they will dynamically adjust their positions according to the price of convertible bonds.
Going back to what I mentioned earlier, since Zhang Yifei and Li Jun have established a stable open-ended investment system, as long as there are assets with a better risk-return ratio and meet the standards, they can gradually incorporate them. Every time a new element is added to a system, it will become more stable, and the investment target will have the effect of "the east is not bright and the west is bright", which truly and effectively embraces volatility.
Contrarian investment with leeway
At the heart of turning market volatility into a source of income lies in contrarian investing. Looking at the products that have failed in market fluctuations in recent years, they are often doing pro-cyclical operations. Howard Marks mentioned that the key to successful investment is not what you buy, but how much money you spend to buy.
In a previous interview, Li Jun shared his understanding of positioning. Theoretically, the position should be higher at the bottom of the market and lower at the top of the market.
The situation of the industry as a whole is the opposite, many "fixed income +" and stock-bond hybrid products have maintained a higher position before, and in the process of market decline, the risk budget will be less, but they will have to reduce their positions at the bottom. As a result, when you need to take risks, you are not in a position to do so.
Source: Wind, data as of December 31, 2023
Therefore, most of the time, the low-volatility product line that Li Jun is responsible for will have a contrarian investment position. Assuming a product with a 20% stock position limit, usually only 15% is used, and the remaining 5% position may not seem high, but for the entire stock portfolio, it means that there is enough room for 25% to increase positions, which basically matches the volatility level of the stock market. Li Jun believes that any way to pursue safety comes with a price, and although it may sacrifice some benefits, it can give the portfolio the ability to take risks when the opportunity comes.
Historically, Zhang Yifei and Li Jun did not operate many large-level positions. The more important one was in 2018, when their Essence steady value-added position was reduced to 3.92% at the end of the first quarter, except for the position increased to 9.33% at the end of the third quarter, and the whole year was running at a lower position. And they do so primarily on the basis of identifying systemic risks and firmly implementing strategies to address them.
In the view of Zhang Yifei and Li Jun, truly effective risk control is not a model, but to resist the temptation of the market. This seems not difficult to say, but in the public offering industry that pursues returns, if you can uphold the original intention of making money for customers and maintain your awe of the market, you must resist the temptation of relative performance and avoid the distortion of income orientation.
Of course, "always have leeway" is a very important way of thinking in their investments.
Customer-first product thinking
I believe that seeing this, many people will agree with Zhang Yifei and Li Jun's ability in the field of prudent investment, they are one of the very good teams in the management of "fixed income +" and equity-bond hybrid products. But there will still be people who are puzzled, judging from historical performance, why can they still make positive returns for multiple products no matter how the market falls, no matter how the scale of management changes?
Our understanding is that the biggest difference between this "Gemini" and the market is a clear understanding of customer needs and product positioning.
In a previous interview, Li Jun once mentioned that the most basic goal of "fixed income +" products is to hope that customers can make money by buying and holding for a period of time. Breaking this goal down further is based on two specific parameters: 1) the product's return and 2) the drawdown or volatility to be as low as possible.
For a long time, Zhang Yifei and Li Jun's investment system has been built around these two parameters. They are always looking for ways to further reduce the volatility of their portfolios. For example, Zhang Yifei has the advantage of Hong Kong stock research and will absorb some more cost-effective Hong Kong stock assets for diversification, while Li Jun uses a highly diversified stock allocation method to open up a low-volatility product line.
In addition to expanding their revenue streams, they also avoid the losses caused by making mistakes. Zhang Yifei and Li Jun are extremely conservative in all aspects of the investment process. Their positions are always controlled according to the product positioning and risk budget, in order to have the capital to increase their positions in an extreme downside environment. They are not forced to chase the trend by short-term income pressure, they do not do credit sinking of bonds, and they do not participate in the overvaluation of any assets.
Zhang Yifei and Li Jun truly understood the essence of stable positioning products from the perspective of user needs, and continued to focus on polishing the key elements of products. It also allows them to go wider and wider on this road.
Especially at present, although equity assets have been adjusted to a historical low, many channel customers are still afraid of equity assets. From the perspective of investment, the usual reaction of fund managers is that equity assets are then appropriate and should be actively allocated. And Zhang Yifei and Li Jun will think about whether it is possible for customers to get some investment experience first, and then include "rights". For example, to open up a product strategy with lower volatility, first adopt the "dual debt" strategy to operate, so that more cost-effective convertible bond assets can assume the role of enhancing returns, and then gradually add stocks after accumulating some income.
There is no doubt that equity assets belong to the varieties that have more opportunities the more they fall. However, to grasp the opportunity of "going against human nature", we need products that "win the hearts and minds of the people".
The net worth curve to earn trust
Finally, let's take the steady value-added of Essence co-managed by Zhang Yifei and Li Jun as an example to review what a stable product is.
Since its inception in 2015, this product has created a net worth curve with low volatility and steady upward returns. If you say that at the beginning of the stock and bond hybrid products, you can also rely on the advantages of small scale to enjoy some dividends similar to the new market. Then, when the scale of Anxin's steady value-added comes up, it will completely rely on the investment ability of Zhang Yifei and Li Jun to control the drawdown and pursue returns.
Source: Wind, ClickPick Investment, data as of December 31, 2023
When it comes to fund investment, a thousand words are not as convincing as the net worth curve. To summarize it in Zhang Yifei's golden sentence, it is: "The best way for fund managers to communicate with their clients is the net worth curve and the operation mode in history, and the longer the time, the clearer the expression." ”
Zhang Yifei and Li Jun gradually built the products under their management into a unique variety - "fluctuation-friendly products".
There are many similarities between investing and life: both are inherently uncertain, but both have ways to improve their long-term chances of winning. The short-term win rate may come from luck, and the long-term win rate comes from ability. For a long time, the positive returns achieved every year in history are believed to have played an important role in the investment philosophy that Zhang Yifei and Li Jun have always adhered to and the investment system that has evolved steadily.
Performance data source: Essence Fund, Wind, as of December 31, 2023. The complete annual performance/performance comparison benchmark growth rate of Essence target income A from 2012 to 2023 is: 1.00%/1.03% (since effective), 3.56%/4.45%, 11.53%/4.78%, 11.49%/3.39%, 1.80%/2.96%, 2.65%/4.43%, 6.54%/3.80%, 6.58%/2.87%, 2.70%/2.44%, 12.15%/ 2.56%, 0.73%/2.10%, 4.13%/4.46%, Fund inception date: 2012-09-25, previous fund managers of the Fund are: Li Yong (20120925-20160314), Zhang Yifei (20160314-present), Li Jun (20171226-20210127), Huang Wanshu (20210402-20230404), Huang Wanshu (20231221-present). From 2014 to 2023, the complete annual results/performance benchmark growth rates of Essence Yongli Credit A are: 13.20%/4.43%, 13.78%/3.02%, 1.91%/2.26%, 3.00%/2.25%, 7.01%/2.25%, 7.80%/2.25%, 2.36%/2.26%, 10.69%/2.25%, 2.40%/2.25%, 3.02%/2.28%; Fund inception date: 2013-11-08, the previous fund managers of the Fund are: Li Yong (20131108-20160314), Zhang Yifei (20160314-20210208), Li Jun (20171226-present), Huang Wanshu (20210402-20230404). From 2017 to 2023, the benchmark growth rate of Anxin Yongxin Enhanced A's complete annual performance/performance comparison is: 2.74%/-4.01% (since effective year), 3.06%/1.98% (before transformation), 0.35%/-0.65% (after transformation), 7.87%/7.63%, 2.92%/5.26%, 5.87%/1.01%, 1.41%/-4.31%, 2.95%/-0.96%; Fund inception date: 2017-01-13, the previous fund managers of the Fund are: Zhang Yifei (20170113-20180912), Li Jun (20171226-20190910), Pan Wei (20180912-20220118), Li Jun (20210426-present), Huang Wanshu (20220118-20230404), Huang Wanshu (20231221-present). From 2015 to 2023, the complete annual results/performance comparison benchmark growth rates of Essence Steady Value-added A are: 3.90%/2.92% (since effective), 5.20%/4.51%, 8.78%/4.50%, 5.10%/4.50%, 11.40%/4.50%, 5.79%/4.51%, 7.53%/4.50%, 1.57%/4.50%, 2.41%/4.60%; Fund inception date: 2015-05-25, the previous fund managers of the fund are: Zhang Yifei (20150525 to present), Li Jun (20171226 to present). From 2017 to 2023, the benchmark growth rate of Essence New Trend A's complete annual results/performance comparison is: 7.52%/8.11%, 3.06%/-10.43%, 10.75%/17.88%, 6.57%/13.47%, 7.17%/-1.12%, 2.20%/-10.93%, 2.42%/-4.87%; Fund inception date: 2016-12-09; 20161209-20220309), Li Jun (20171226-present), Huang Wanshu (20220309-20230404). The complete annual performance/performance comparison benchmark growth rate of Essence New Trend Similar Products managed by fund managers from 2013 to 2023 is: 0.80%/-3.19%, 24.98%/26.76%, 14.51%/11.74%, 8.10%/-7.05%, 6.44%/5.14%, 0.20%/-11.68%, 11.26%/16.87%, 6.89%/12.86%, 3.63%/1.11%, -10.44%/-10.77%, 2.30%/-4.35%;Fund inception date:2012-12-18;The previous fund managers of the Fund are:Li Yong(20121218-20140529), Wang Jian(20121218-20140808), Manor(20140529-20150708), Jiang Cheng (20140808-20160407), Chen Yifeng ( 20160314-20170505), Manor (20160912-20201231), Zhang Ming (20170505-20220930), Li Jun (20220930-present). From 2020 to 2023, the complete annual results/performance benchmark growth rates of Essence Steady Profit A are: 7.25%/5.65% (since effective), 8.76%/-0.41%, 4.15%/-4.23%, 0.23%/-1.48%, fund establishment date: 2020-04-01, and the previous fund managers of the fund are: Li Jun (20200401-20230912) and Zhang Yifei (20200401 to present). The complete annual results/performance comparison benchmark growth rates of Essence Stable Huili Holding A from 2021 to 2023 are: 2.23%/0.05% (since effective), 4.58%/-3.33%, 0.94%/-0.81%, fund establishment date: 2021-08-10, and the previous fund managers of the fund are: Li Jun (20210810 to present) and Zhang Yifei (20210810-20230109). The full annual performance/performance comparison benchmark growth rate of Essence Minan Return Holding A from 2021 to 2023 is: 1.46%/-0.25% (since effective), 4.96%/-2.00%, 0.23%/0.02%, fund establishment date: 2021-09-07, and the previous fund managers of the fund are: Li Jun (20210907-20220930) and Zhang Yifei (20210907 to present). From 2022 to 2023, the benchmark growth rate of Essence Fengsui's one-year performance / performance comparison is 2.22%/-2.51% (since effective) and 0.80%/-0.06%, respectively, the fund establishment date: 2022-01-21, and the previous fund managers of the fund are: Li Jun (20220121-20230912), Zhang Yifei (20220121-present), Huang Wanshu (20231221-present). From 2022 to 2023, the benchmark growth rate of Essence Hengxin Enhanced A's performance/performance comparison is -0.45%/-0.63% (since effective) and 0.68%/0.70%, respectively, the fund establishment date: 2022-07-07, and the previous fund manager of the fund is: Zhang Yifei (20220707 to present). From 2020 to 2023, the complete annual results/performance benchmark growth rates are: 5.21%/2.98% (since effective), 17.88%/-0.41%, 8.81%/-4.23%, -0.49%/-1.48%, fund establishment date: 2020-01-14, the previous fund managers of the fund are: Li Jun (20200114-20210208), Zhang Yifei (20200114-present), Huang Wanshu (20210402-20220930). The complete annual results/performance comparison benchmark growth rates of Essence Holding A from 2020 to 2023 are: 2.77%/4.05% (since effective), 12.76%/-0.41%, 6.48%/-4.23%, -0.23%/-1.48%, Fund establishment date: 2020-09-30, and the previous fund managers of the Fund are: Li Jun (20200930-20220118), Zhang Yifei ( 20200930 to date).
Risk Warning: This article only represents the author's point of view and is not intended as any legal document and does not constitute any legal commitment. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. Before investing, investors should carefully read the "Fund Contract", "Prospectus" and other legal documents to understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, and judge whether the fund is suitable for the investor's risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status, etc., and purchase the fund according to their own risk tolerance. The market is risky and investors should be cautious.
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